Ginx snewx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The year of the overperformed hopefully continues. Interesting evolution. Todays's west move last minute is in the back of my mind. GEFS look nice, that's a tightly wound developing nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I actually don't like how it is digging a bit further south on some guidance like the RGEM and esp the Ukie...that gives more of a risk of that bottom lobe sort of picnhing off and not rounding the base of the long wave trough. So you get a low that squirts east. I would like to see the vorticity in Wisconsin around 00z tomorrow night phase with the main vortmax further south to help prevent the southern vortmax escaping while the northern flow tries to go too zonal. Exactly much more worried about this than taint...JMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 From CWAO: NEXT ATLANTIC STORM FOR DAY 3... EXCEPT FOR GFS BEING TOO FAST AND UKMET ON THE SLOW AND WEAK SIDE, GLB AND ECMWF SHOWING A GOOD CONSENSUS WITH MIDDLE OF THE ROAD SOLTN FOR NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING NS BY SUNDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HarveyLeonardFan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If I get 11 snowflakes it'll verify better than this system. I'll take my chances on the clipper. I'm pleased how the models performed IMBY. There was some ping-ponging of the models from western to eastern solutions but the general idea of a coastal hugger was always there. I got half an inch and it certainly wasn't a surprise. Hopefully this next event won't screw us but we've been screwed so many times the past few years seeing NYC and Long Island get hammered we're certainly used to what happened today to our West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WPC likes the BM bomb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is a highly volatile situation unfolding, winds could become sustained at 40mph on the backside of the surface low as it passes through the region and off to the east, just to the east about 50 miles is a core of wind of about 70mph sustained winds, not gusts, sustained winds of 70mph. This is according to the latest GFS run. 00z runs will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The year of the overperformed hopefully continues. Interesting evolution. Todays's west move last minute is in the back of my mind. GEFS look nice, that's a tightly wound developing nuke. Watch, now that we need the shift west..... I knew it would stand pat and be right, last time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WPC likes the BM bomb I saw you posting this map on the other region leading up to this one. Or maybe that was chill....either way they had the track inside and that was better than most. Good track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 new SREF looks crushing to NE check it out p.s. how you liking that snow we sent ya? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 SREFs are liking the whole NEw England region, .5" farther west into the ORH region with the 1.0" of QPF onto eastern Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 yeah, latest SREF would be about 5-7" imby but it's the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 new SREF looks crushing to NE check it out p.s. how you liking that snow we sent ya? You guys rocked it there. That's awesome. 16-22" for many of you. Enjoy it, been a long stretch there. Not much IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Scott, I think Saturday is our storm, Warning criteria snows to Worcester Springfield points south and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 new SREF looks crushing to NE check it out p.s. how you liking that snow we sent ya? Mundane decent event here...some great rates for a while and a bit over 10"...but last week's storm was better with over a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Ahem...let's keep it on topic banter goes in the banter thread. (haha) New NAM is brewing a monster.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Ahem...let's keep it on topic banter goes in the banter thread. (haha) New NAM is brewing a monster.... It's almost eeriely similar to what the 18z GFS showed, a huge low going towards NC east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It's almost eeriely similar to what the 18z GFS showed, a huge low going towards NC east coast. I do worry about how far south it is, but the trough is already going negative. Be kind of funny if this brings more snow in Boston and Providence then the super hyped polished turd today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I do worry about how far south it is, but the trough is already going negative. Be kind of funny if this brings more snow in Boston and Providence then the super hyped polished turd today. It could suck and still best today lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 I still don't like how far its digging there while leaving the northern energy behind a bit. Hopefully it has enough to make the sharp left turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I still don't like how far its digging there while leaving the northern energy behind a bit. Hopefully it has enough to make the sharp left turn. That s/w in NY is gonna mess it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 That s/w in NY is gonna mess it up. Yep...that's what I don't like about these real far south digging solutions. Whiff right...just some consolation light snow...maybe an inch or two in those scenarios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This run was at least better than 18z inv trough look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Will have to wait and see where the rest of 0z suite goes with it, Right now i would favor a scraper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yep...that's what I don't like about these real far south digging solutions. Whiff right...just some consolation light snow...maybe an inch or two in those scenarios. Looks good for James and I though vs the earlier NAM runs which is a positive. Plus we have cold 8h and nice inflow off the ocean to enhance things. Could rip and pound due to winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 So close there. Looks better than the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yep...that's what I don't like about these real far south digging solutions. Whiff right...just some consolation light snow...maybe an inch or two in those scenarios. I honestly think models might be overdoing the northern stream shortwave a bit, we shall see in future runs, as NAM runs the risk you and Scott have outlined above, potential for a wide right given that polar shortwave digs too far south and runs east of the benchmark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What a nuke just off shore, anyone notice it is slower than the 18z too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah it could rip here with northeasterly inflow with cold air mass in place and strong tightening of Surface to H7 flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Nuke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Got to like this trend long as many of the others are still west/come west (Euro). I know the Euro has tended to be too far SE this year but it shouldn't be with this system if it's legit tonight. This isn't some 998 scraper, this is a biggie. If it's legit I expect some Crazy Uncle solutions cutting through Hyannis. NAM is 6-12" on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.