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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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I actually don't like how it is digging a bit further south on some guidance like the RGEM and esp the Ukie...that gives more of a risk of that bottom lobe sort of picnhing off and not rounding the base of the long wave trough. So you get a low that squirts east.

 

I would like to see the vorticity in Wisconsin around 00z tomorrow night phase with the main vortmax further south to help prevent the southern vortmax escaping while the northern flow tries to go too zonal.

Exactly much more worried about this than taint...JMHO.

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If I get 11 snowflakes it'll verify better than this system.  I'll take my chances on the clipper.

I'm pleased how the models performed IMBY.  There was some ping-ponging of the models from western to eastern solutions but the general idea of a coastal hugger was always there.  I got half an inch and it certainly wasn't a surprise. Hopefully this next event won't screw us but we've been screwed so many times the past few years seeing NYC and Long Island get hammered we're certainly used to what happened today to our West.

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This is a highly volatile situation unfolding, winds could become sustained at 40mph on the backside of the surface low as it passes through the region and off to the east, just to the east about 50 miles is a core of wind of about 70mph sustained winds, not gusts, sustained winds of 70mph.  This is according to the latest GFS run.  00z runs will be telling.

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Yep...that's what I don't like about these real far south digging solutions.

 

 

Whiff right...just some consolation light snow...maybe an inch or two in those scenarios.

 

Looks good for James and I though vs the earlier NAM runs which is a positive.  Plus we have cold 8h and nice inflow off the ocean to enhance things.    Could rip and pound due to winds.

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Yep...that's what I don't like about these real far south digging solutions.

 

 

Whiff right...just some consolation light snow...maybe an inch or two in those scenarios.

 

I honestly think models might be overdoing the northern stream shortwave a bit, we shall see in future runs, as NAM runs the risk you and Scott have outlined above, potential for a wide right given that polar shortwave digs too far south and runs east of the benchmark.

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Got to like this trend long as many of the others are still west/come west (Euro).   I know the Euro has tended to be too far SE this year but it shouldn't be with this system if it's legit tonight.   This isn't some 998 scraper, this is a biggie.  If it's legit I expect some Crazy Uncle solutions cutting through Hyannis.

 

NAM is 6-12" on the Cape.

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