moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Good timing!!! Goodness--that adds a wrinkle to making a confident forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Definitely a little uneasy for a couple of reasons about this one. I like the box map, seems to reflect what a lot of people have been saying in here. Well see what happens, but epic fail if we don't see at least 6" here Razor sharp gradients are a double edged sword, your close to something huge, but also close to something meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That fooking sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 That's a lot of convection down there with the lightning data blowing up with new stuff south of HSE..we'll have to see how that plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Definitely a little uneasy for a couple of reasons about this one. I like the box map, seems to reflect what a lot of people have been saying in here. Well see what happens, but epic fail if we don't see at least 6" here Razor sharp gradients are a double edged sword, your close to something huge, but also close to something meh Well sometimes it's only a 30 mile shift, so tough to call that an epic fail when it is a razor's edge. As of now...I think things are on track..just a little nervous of any nudge to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Men from the boys time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That's a lot of convection down there with the lightning data blowing up with new stuff south of HSE..we'll have to see how that plays out. Yeah quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah quite a bit.Implications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Sounds like they need to unplug their modem, wait 5 minutes, then plug it back in. That always works LOL. I had to try that the other day. Ended up needing a new router and had to run down to Staples in the snow Thursday for a new one. Maybe they have a Staples nearby. GYX is showing the Whites picking up quite a bit, but nothing just below them. Hopefully, we'll be able to pull down a few in Bartlett. Since the snow is currently at the level of the picnic table, I guess if we miss out, it won't matter much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Men from the boys time Amounts for select cities? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think its great for us that the models are cooked but horrible for the real world. Lets see how nowcasting really works. will is already on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That's a lot of convection down there with the lightning data blowing up with new stuff south of HSE..we'll have to see how that plays out. Indeed. This is nothing scientific but looking at the water vapor loop makes me think... whoa, wagons east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NCEP Operational Status Message Sat Feb 15 13:08:28 2014 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 151308 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1303Z SAT FEB 15 2014 12Z MODEL PRODUCTION CYCLE WILL DEFINITELY BE DELAYED.. DUE TO THE MAJOR CIRCUIT AND INTERNET SERVICE ISSUE AT THE TOC/GATEWAY.. WE ARE DELAYING THE START OF THE 12Z CYCLE RUNS.. INCLUDING THE NAM AND RAP UPDATES.. DUE TO THE ON-GOING ISSUES AT THE GATEWAY/TOC. THEIR VENDOR/CONTRACTOR SAYS THEIR WORK COULD TAKE UP TO 2-3 HRS.. BUT THEY ARE ON-SITE AND WORKING ON THE ISSUE. WE WILL UPDATE YOU AS SOON AS WE KNOW HOW LONG THE DELAY OF THE 12Z MODELS WILL BE... MOST OF THE DATA NEEDED TO RUN THE MODELS IS NOT REACHING THE NEW WCOSS SUPER COMPUTER TO RUN THE MODELS AND WE ARE ALSO UNABLE TO SEND PRODUCTS OUT AS WELL TO AWIPS...VIA THE TOC/GATEWAY. MORE INFORMATION ONCE THIS BECOMES AVAILABLE.. NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Fire the Newby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah quite a bit. If you look at the 06z NAM and the 06z GFS, the one good thing as that the 06z NAM had the convection almost exclusively east of HSE at this point while the GFS was more due south of it....the GFS def seems tobe winning there. Of course, that doesn't guarantee it ends up correct over our heads later on, but I do like seeing convection as far west as possible. If its further east, that is never good for trying to get the storm move amplify westward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Indeed. This is nothing scientific but looking at the water vapor loop makes me think... whoa, wagons east!Not sure it matters as much for most of CT. Our snow comes from the front end bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Indeed. This is nothing scientific but looking at the water vapor loop makes me think... whoa, wagons east! The 6z NAM seemed to suggest this current convection east of Hattetas..so I'm still thinking game on for that type of solution] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 A lot of convection down south, near Hatteras, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Not sure it matters as much for most of CT. Our snow comes from the front end bands. In that case we're looking at a coating to 2" type of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 If you look at the 06z NAM and the 06z GFS, the one good thing as that the 06z NAM had the convection almost exclusively east of HSE at this point while the GFS was more due south of it....the GFS def seems tobe winning there. Of course, that doesn't guarantee it ends up correct over our heads later on, but I do like seeing convection as far west as possible. If its further east, that is never good for trying to get the storm move amplify westward. Wake me up if it starts firing up over Greenville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Amounts for select cities? Maine Crew 8+ NE Mass crew 6+ Pickles Diane Medium NEMA crew 3-6 Boston Crew 8+ Phil James Cape Cod crew 10+ Messenger Cweat Rollo Winston Polar 12+ Scooter Crew 8+ NE CT me crew 4-6 Mastif crew 3-4 Ryan Wiz crew 2-4 LL Johnno SW CT crew 1-3 Pete Hippy MPM GC crew 3-5 Radarman Scooby Do crew 2-4 MattMo Dendrite NH crew 2-6 PF (screw him he has like 100 inches this week) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That vortmax for now seems on par with the models I think. It should start to turn more NE over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Maine Crew 8+ NE Mass crew 6+ Pickles Diane Medium NEMA crew 3-6 Boston Crew 8+ Phil James Cape Cod crew 10+ Messenger Cweat Rollo Winston Polar 12+ Scooter Crew 8+ NE CT me crew 4-6 Mastif crew 3-4 Ryan Wiz crew 2-4 LL Johnno SW CT crew 1-3 Pete Hippy MPM GC crew 3-5 Radarman Scooby Do crew 2-4 MattMo Dendrite NH crew 2-6 PF (screw him he has like 100 inches this week) Methinks (and appreciate) what I think is over-zealousness for GC, but otherwise, that lines up with my thinking. What's your take for up here in Bartlett, Steve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Man the NAM and GFS were about to swing my opinion on going full tilt at BOS or keeping things status quo. Was hoping to see a trend either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The panic that just set over the TV rip and readers is palpable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 So that convection as currently depicted seems to line up well of your on the big solution bus? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 All hail Canada and Europeans I guess, hey MPM 2-3? in Bartlett but as far as GC, you are missing some goods as we speak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201402151424-KNES-TXUS20-SPENES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Fwiw RAP looks amazing later on for eastern areas including Boston. Hrrr looks solid as well and insane down around PYM to the canal with 4" per hour band progged down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201402151424-KNES-TXUS20-SPENESI like how they call us "The New England." Did they comment on trends vs modeled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Thanks Chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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