HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That map looks reasonable Not sure of the 24" Or even the 18 If I get more than an inch I consider it gravy. Low expectations here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 SREFs looked like they held serve and ticked west slightly above I-90 meaning more of a reflection of the low tucking in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Looks like still some spread to the left even this close in..lol. Classic SREFs. Must be some hi res solutions out of control. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 SREFs looked like they held serve and ticked west slightly above I-90 meaning more of a reflection of the low tucking in a bit. Latest hrrr seems to be coming into line finally too. Be interesting to see if the hrrr and nam idea of a mini center close to the islands/on cape is correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 SREFs looked like they held serve and ticked west slightly above I-90 meaning more of a reflection of the low tucking in a bit.yeah...the isohyets almost run due N-S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I noticed on the NAM 850 plots it had some sort of meso band stretching from about ORH down to HFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I noticed on the NAM 850 plots it had some sort of meso band stretching from about ORH down to HFD I think that stuff down in the MA will get you guys first with some light to even moderate snows. The question is how muchy gets back from the main storm....the stuff ahead of it is just some weenie fronto stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I noticed on the NAM 850 plots it had some sort of meso band stretching from about ORH down to HFDThis a Ginxy special in CT. Enjoy the third plowable snow in three days and dont worry about JP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This a Ginxy special in CT. Enjoy the third plowable snow in three days and dontvworry about JP.He will def do well , but I have a gut feeling there might be a few surprises farther west than one might think. There's enough signals on the models. Why would I worry about Jamaica Plain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I just don't have a warm fuzzy feeling with this storm. Part of me could see this ticking east as things are moving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sankaty Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This from the AM OKX discussion. Nice to see that it's not just me that feels this winter has had a remarkably high degree of uncertainty: THERE IS ALSO SOME UNCERTAINTY IN SNOWFALL AMOUNTS DUE TO THE FACTTHE AREA IS ALONG A TIGHT GRADIENT ACROSS EASTERN SECTIONS. ANYSHIFT WEST OR EAST WOULD HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE HEAVYSNOW AXIS. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE HAS IN EXCESS OF AN INCH OF LIQUIDJUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. ANOTHER POTENTIAL WRINKLE IN THEFORECAST IS THE AMOUNT OF INTERACTION OF THE NORTHERN BRANCH OFTHE POLAR JET...WHICH TRIES TO PHASE WITH THE SOUTHERN BRANCHSTORM SYSTEM. SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS...AS WELL THE REGIONALCANADIAN HINT AT A NORLUN TROF SETTING UP WITH HEAVY SNOWEXTENDING FARTHER NW OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS COULD ENHANCESNOWFALL AMOUNTS...IN PARTICULAR FARTHER TO THE WEST OF THECURRENT HEAVY PCPN AXIS. THERE IS LOTS TO THINK ABOUT HERE...ASHAS BEEN THE CASE THIS WINTER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'll take 4-6 and run and hold out hope that some how good banding reaches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Gonna be a nail biter here in central CT. I'm thinking 2-4 until you get east of the CT river. Ryan's station's map is about how I'd draw it, except I'd bump their 4-6 zone to 4-8. OKX is a little more bullish than I thought they'd be...although the have been all season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'll take 4-6 and run and hold out hope that some how good banding reaches here.4-6 might be generous there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Gonna be a nail biter here in central CT. I'm thinking 2-4 until you get east of the CT river. Ryan's station's map is about how I'd draw it, except I'd bump their 4-6 zone to 4-8. OKX is a little more bullish than I thought they'd be...although the have been all season.They really have been bullish. Consistently one snowfall bracket up from BOX at the transition zones. This time they match up well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Started an obs thread here http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42903-feb-15-clipper-obs/#entry2801682 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Any change to the time frame? Specifically here in Kingston, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Gonna be a nail biter here in central CT. I'm thinking 2-4 until you get east of the CT river. Ryan's station's map is about how I'd draw it, except I'd bump their 4-6 zone to 4-8. OKX is a little more bullish than I thought they'd be...although the have been all season. It is a funny system. Looking at the water vapor loop doesn't inspire much confidence. That vort max is hauling east off the Carolinas. At the same time we'll also have a 7-10 split over CT/W Mass for at least a period of time with one batch of frontogenesis to the NW (NE PA to BGM) and the developing CCB/comma head to the east. As OKX mentioned some type of inverted trough or NORLUN could really F stuff up but I could definitely see a tick east. GFS came east from 18z with the western part of the shield and the NAM is well east as well (this is the kind of setup where I actually will look a the NAM for clues). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It is a funny system. Looking at the water vapor loop doesn't inspire much confidence. That vort max is hauling east off the Carolinas. At the same time we'll also have a 7-10 split over CT/W Mass for at least a period of time with one batch of frontogenesis to the NW (NE PA to BGM) and the developing CCB/comma head to the east. As OKX mentioned some type of inverted trough or NORLUN could really F stuff up but I could definitely see a tick east. GFS came east from 18z with the western part of the shield and the NAM is well east as well (this is the kind of setup where I actually will look a the NAM for clues). Hey Ryan, I can't find a snowfall map up on the NBC ct mobile skin website. Do you have a link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Hey Ryan, I can't find a snowfall map up on the NBC ct mobile skin website. Do you have a link? I think it's on our Facebook page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think it's on our Facebook pageThank you. Maybe a bit conservative for E of 395?Edit: who cares, no one lives out there anyway. They have towns named after caribou. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Thank you. Maybe a bit conservative for E of 395? Maybe... but these things usually wind up pretty tight. I've seen a lot of cases where you're waiting for a cold conveyor belt to deliver the goods and the whole thing winds up much narrower than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 What is the timing for the concord ma area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Maybe... but these things usually wind up pretty tight. I've seen a lot of cases where you're waiting for a cold conveyor belt to deliver the goods and the whole thing winds up much narrower than modeled.True...also, see my edit above.At least it's not another SW CT special Fairly easy call for down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NCEP Operational Status Message Sat Feb 15 13:08:28 2014 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 151308 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1303Z SAT FEB 15 2014 12Z MODEL PRODUCTION CYCLE WILL DEFINITELY BE DELAYED.. DUE TO THE MAJOR CIRCUIT AND INTERNET SERVICE ISSUE AT THE TOC/GATEWAY.. WE ARE DELAYING THE START OF THE 12Z CYCLE RUNS.. INCLUDING THE NAM AND RAP UPDATES.. DUE TO THE ON-GOING ISSUES AT THE GATEWAY/TOC. THEIR VENDOR/CONTRACTOR SAYS THEIR WORK COULD TAKE UP TO 2-3 HRS.. BUT THEY ARE ON-SITE AND WORKING ON THE ISSUE. WE WILL UPDATE YOU AS SOON AS WE KNOW HOW LONG THE DELAY OF THE 12Z MODELS WILL BE... MOST OF THE DATA NEEDED TO RUN THE MODELS IS NOT REACHING THE NEW WCOSS SUPER COMPUTER TO RUN THE MODELS AND WE ARE ALSO UNABLE TO SEND PRODUCTS OUT AS WELL TO AWIPS...VIA THE TOC/GATEWAY. MORE INFORMATION ONCE THIS BECOMES AVAILABLE.. NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 18-21 hour maps are the key on the "all others" vs GFS camp. At 15z Saturday the GFS has a 998 mb low consolidating inland over NC west of convection that it has run right up to the outer banks. The other models are all diffuse, with the convection further offshore by 50+ miles. From there the GFS fires the convection further, really goes to the town with the mid level centers right under it and wraps the entire thing much closer to the coast. That's the crux of the difference. All of the other models key on the outer convection and spin up the low from there which moves northward. The GFS says no...starts to spin up the low inland over the Carolinas behind a line of intense convection it fires across the Carolinas. We need a Tippy 40 paragraph posts to explain which type of model may be right or wrong here, but that's your difference and IMO it's that simple. One model camp is right, one is wrong. IMO it's not really a first to the party thing. It's either right or wrong on that convection. ALL models are trending stronger and naturally that'll lead to more convection which is either increasing the "rightness" of the GFS or causing it to fall down. TBH I have no idea which it is. Feedback is an overused term and IMO more times than not in the last few years when we thought it was effecting the outcome it wasn't Based on the current radar returns down south, it looks like the GFS was correct. Lots of convection down in the Carolinas now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NCEP Operational Status Message Sat Feb 15 13:08:28 2014 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 151308 ADMNFD SENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE NWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD 1303Z SAT FEB 15 2014 12Z MODEL PRODUCTION CYCLE WILL DEFINITELY BE DELAYED.. DUE TO THE MAJOR CIRCUIT AND INTERNET SERVICE ISSUE AT THE TOC/GATEWAY.. WE ARE DELAYING THE START OF THE 12Z CYCLE RUNS.. INCLUDING THE NAM AND RAP UPDATES.. DUE TO THE ON-GOING ISSUES AT THE GATEWAY/TOC. THEIR VENDOR/CONTRACTOR SAYS THEIR WORK COULD TAKE UP TO 2-3 HRS.. BUT THEY ARE ON-SITE AND WORKING ON THE ISSUE. WE WILL UPDATE YOU AS SOON AS WE KNOW HOW LONG THE DELAY OF THE 12Z MODELS WILL BE... MOST OF THE DATA NEEDED TO RUN THE MODELS IS NOT REACHING THE NEW WCOSS SUPER COMPUTER TO RUN THE MODELS AND WE ARE ALSO UNABLE TO SEND PRODUCTS OUT AS WELL TO AWIPS...VIA THE TOC/GATEWAY. MORE INFORMATION ONCE THIS BECOMES AVAILABLE.. NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Good timing!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Sounds like they need to unplug their modem, wait 5 minutes, then plug it back in. That always works Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Was wondering where the 12z NAM was.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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