CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Defintely a bit juicier. Really nails BOS and ESP s shore/cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 EURO is closer to the benchmark, much better track, mixing line scratches the Outer Cape CHH area, Harwich is all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 6z NAM about the same / maybe ticked slightly west... 1" contour now slices Boston 2.5" contour into outer Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Upgraded to a blizzard warning all of coastal MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 I like the BOX map. Fits my thinking fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Upgraded to a blizzard warning all of coastal MA. 'Yep, except the intentation near BOS BOS could see marginal blizzard conditions though...esp Logan airport. Here's map.... red = blizzard warning pink = winter storm warning purple = advisory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 QPF queens need to look at this. Take that lift and extrapolate west a bit and it covers ORH and into TOL for a little while. Hopefully it doesn't tick SE. avn_24_700.gif A beaut.You wonder if there's still one more slight jog west coming at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro is ever so slightly wetter vs 12z 0.5 eastern half of mass/ct 0.75 inside 128 and all of ri 1.0 maybe BOS to PVD 1.25 canal east. That's a huge shift west from 12z. You basically have to think 6+ from I-91 east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 6z NAM and GFS both came west with the precip shield by about 10-15 miles esp to the NW of BOS. Don't know why the GFS has such a weak precip gradient though. I mean 0.75" almost to ORH but only gives 1" to ACK? Not really believable due to the nature of the system. Maybe not picking up enough on dynamics due to the more compact nature of the system? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 A beaut.You wonder if there's still one more slight jog west coming at 12zec ens were a tick SE of the op with QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Dang the runs last night were better than I thought. Lots of 12" totals possible in EMass Maine is the place to be though Even some epicosity out here possible Nice BOX map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nice gradient on the 4k BTV WRF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Some meso models have a sick gradient..some don't. Euro and NAM are in good agreement ironically. It definitely makes it a high stakes game as 20-30 miles means everything for some..even me. Seems lilke a nowcast deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Fun times to be sure for many--enjoy it folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 After the 12z models it will basically be a game of radar watching and where the best banding sets up and how far NW it gets. Am literally right on the NW fringe right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 ec ens were a tick SE of the op with QPF. Meh..at this range ens pretty useless GFS jog est was good..all about fronto band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'd really appreciate it if someone could share some of those frontogenesis/banding products for 6z NAM/GFS and a link. I don't have them bookmarked Edit: Found them for the NAM... http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/ Clocks SE MA, looks like another band is possible further west based on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 not an imby weenie obs here since I leave for India this afternoon... but look at the radar, precip developing pretty far north, banding developing from central to ne pa into se new york....looks headed for the berks. it looks further north than one would expect, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 HRR looks good later this afternoon from C CT east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 not an imby weenie obs here since I leave for India this afternoon... but look at the radar, precip developing pretty far north, banding developing from central to ne pa into se new york....looks headed for the berks. it looks further north than one would expect, no? Looks on track to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 You can see how tight the NAM is. I can sort of buy this because of this thing just blowing up and creating so much lift with it...but we'll see. NAM GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Local met on FOX Sam Sampieri @SamSampieri 18m Initial snowfall estimates. Storm will intensify rapidly next 12-18 hours and move just east of Cap Cod! Close Call! pic.twitter.com/fjAdknPKhO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Some meso models have a sick gradient..some don't. Euro and NAM are in good agreement ironically. It definitely makes it a high stakes game as 20-30 miles means everything for some..even me. Seems lilke a nowcast deal. Nightmare forecast because someone is going to be bummed and it could be any of us. Interesting that the convection and spin over the Carolina's is more impressive than modeled in line with the earlier gfs runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Not a fan of the model but the hrrr looks a lot more like the ggem. Not very impressive through 1-2z with serious accumulations confined to the extreme coastal areas. Rap seems to make much more sense Late rgem prob nudged east a little with dynamics. Looks very similar to the HRRR as it rolls forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Local met on FOX Sam Sampieri @SamSampieri 18m Initial snowfall estimates. Storm will intensify rapidly next 12-18 hours and move just east of Cap Cod! Close Call! pic.twitter.com/fjAdknPKhO Boldly weenie-ish. What is your call for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Boldly weenie-ish. What is your call for us? 3-6..though if the GFS is right with fronto banding overhead for a few hours could be more like 8-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Here's what I came up with very late and blurry eyed last night. In my blog I tried to outline my fear of not being sure where heaviest band sets up and that the gradient on the western edge could be extreme. How you could go from 18" in Plymouth county to 3 inches in Windham County. Or how one part of the Cape could get 2' while the other only gets 12". But my main fear is the gradient. Little nervous that inside 128 rips snow for 12 hours while anyone west of Worcester only sees flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Definitely need to be aware of any nudges east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Chris that gradient could be a bear. The rgem and hrrr being a little light bugs me a bit. Hrrr has two distinct spins moving up later. Odd evolution. System looks great but i doubt we are done with the adjustments that i expect are coming at 12z. The convection has fired off now and normally once that happens the models seem to be better able to handle it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.