jamesnichols1989 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This has the look of a really wound up spinner with not that much flow to the West side. Im suspect of even the most generous qpf blobs past death valley. Have you seen the models? West side of the storm gusts past 55mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Have you seen the models? West side of the storm gusts past 55mph. Yea, i see the gusts. But Im talking about precip past ct river valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just think as it bombs its gonna draw winds on the backside so hard that it never blossoms, or extends, precip back. nw side, yes. But west quadrant not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think the southeast goalpost is at least a big crushing (8-12") for the Cape and adjacent SE MA for a good chunk of PYM county and Bristol county. Northwest goalpost seems to be warning snows to maybe I-91 or maybe east slope of Berks? CT river valley cutoff wtr warning snows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 You know,this is a Northern streamer and the GFS has owned these this year. So .... Sent from my VS980 4G Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I have this feeling that I am going to be smoking exhaust while places 25 miles to my east get buried. Seriously though. Congrats to you boys on the Cape. This should be fun. The gradient for this storm is going to be intense. Could probably go from 2 feet to 2 inches in like 50 miles or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Is there any risk this meso low feature in ATL robs some energy se ..or pushes mslp development se http://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.php?rid=ffc&product=N0R&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Really? Hurricane force gusts? That's 74 mph right? I hadn't heard anything close to that mentioned, sorry, if that is true then I'm way off base on impact.latest GFS sounding has 60 knots sustained at the surface on the outer Cape, if anything the area of highest winds expanded out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 2 hours till we have the euro verdict but the envelope is right now. GFS collapsed east from the 18z. Feedback FTL. We're seeing the clear goalposts now. The epic totals will run somewhere between Rte 24 and about the upper cape and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I have this feeling that I am going to be smoking exhaust while places 25 miles to my east get buried. Seriously though. Congrats to you boys on the Cape. This should be fun. The gradient for this storm is going to be intense. Could probably go from 2 feet to 2 inches in like 50 miles or less. It's going to be a vicious gradient Chris. Not confident I'm on the right side of it yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's going to be a vicious gradient Chris. Not confident I'm on the right side of it yet. Huh? Your in the perfect spot. You really thin it'll slip that Far East? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Huh? Your in the perfect spot. You really thin it'll slip that Far East? I don't think this is going to be a particularly wide band I could end up on either side of it the wrong way. I think the GFS is still on feedback drugs, and the NAM is also high, but demonstrating how tight this is going to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I don't think this is going to be a particularly wide band I could end up on either side of it the wrong way. I think the GFS is still on feedback drugs, and the NAM is also high, but demonstrating how tight this is going to be. I don't think it'll be that bad per say. Whoever gets into the best banding is going to snooze there way to 15+ And it's not even going to close. It did tick back, but it was slight, so well see what the euro does. I'd say a foot is a good starting point for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 THE GFSSUITE WHICH HAD BEEN THE MORE WESTERN SOLUTIONS IN RECENT CYCLESHAS TAKEN A SLIGHT JOG TOWARD THE EAST BRINGING THE 00Z GFS MOREIN LINE WITH THE 12Z ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. THE 00Z NAM ATTIMES LOOKS REASONABLE ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS ALMOST TOO AGGRESSIVEWITH THE DEEPENING BY 16/06Z OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET LEADING TO VERYHEAVY COMMA-HEAD PRECIPITATION. WILL STICK WITH A COMBINATION OFTHE 00Z GFS/12Z ECMWF FOR THESE REASONS. Well said, go with the consensus. Nice system. Euro to me doesn't matter much, will see what everything else shows/obs in the am. Important thing is the GFS collapsed west with the .5 line towards the others. I think it's still too spread out and will continue to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I don't think it'll be that bad per say. Whoever gets into the best banding is going to snooze there way to 15+ And it's not even going to close. It did tick back, but it was slight, so well see what the euro does. I'd say a foot is a good starting point for you It was way more than a slight move. At 18z it had the .5 line straddling the CT/MA/NY border with .75 in a lot of CT. Now it's much further east. It was a big collapse for 6 hours and I think it's still choking. But that's JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Messenger is turning into a QPF queen, maybe this will help. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t00z/frontb.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It was way more than a slight move. At 18z it had the .5 line straddling the CT/MA/NY border with .75 in a lot of CT. Now it's much further east. It was a big collapse for 6 hours and I think it's still choking. But that's JMHO It very well could be, if that's the case, foot plus amounts off the cape could be hard to come by. I was thinking a foot at least here, now not so sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS collapsed east from the 18z. Feedback FTL. We're seeing the clear goalposts now. The epic totals will run somewhere between Rte 24 and about the upper cape and points east. Why are you so negative about this system? The GFS ticked very slightly east, almost negligible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Messenger is turning into a QPF queen, maybe this will help. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t00z/frontb.html Why are you so negative about this system? The GFS ticked very slightly east, almost negligible. I'm not at all negative on this system. I think the banding is going to be historic. I think the GFS sucks and said that 6 hours ago in the face of relentless cries of this thing trending rest to Chicago Messenger is turning into a QPF queen, maybe this will help. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/t00z/frontb.html Anything GFS based goes in the trash for now. I'll ride the rest of the models without the feedback...and the 0z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It was way more than a slight move. At 18z it had the .5 line straddling the CT/MA/NY border with .75 in a lot of CT. Now it's much further east. It was a big collapse for 6 hours and I think it's still choking. But that's JMHO I would tend to lean in that direction . I see another tick se at 6z and euro a tick se @ 0z. And then its am outer cape "thing" w nice mood snows for many. Just not buying it. Strange that Phil hasnt posted anything on his site yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I would tend to lean in that direction . I see another tick se at 6z and euro a tick se @ 0z. And then its am outer cape "thing" w nice mood snows for many. Just not buying it. Strange that Phil hasnt posted anything on his site yet I really feel like there's a big difference between the GFS moving away from the insane 18z to a more reasonable solution and the event totally being canceled for everywhere beyond the outer cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It very well could be, if that's the case, foot plus amounts off the cape could be hard to come by. I was thinking a foot at least here, now not so sure. A foot in a quick hitting storm is very tough. However if you expect 6+ you'll be satisfied, Trust me, sometimes you go years between 6 inchers. Now speaking to other comments: This is not in the least bit comparable to 1/21. Well at least latitudinally. 1/21 had the band collapse south as the system was say SE of the bm and heading east, This system should come within 50 miles of the bm and head ne bombing the whole time. I think the cape can get big totals but out on the elbow I'm a ilittle worried about temperatures. In fact even for Boston I'm concerned at the outset that we'll lose some qpf to non accumulating snow until it gets to freezing. I think good totals 6+ are a decent bet BGR-LEW-MHT-LWM-ORH-TOL-PVD and east. I think 8+ from Weymouth to just east of PVD on SE. I think 12+ could occur between Hyannis and PYM. Downeast Maine 12-18. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm not at all negative on this system. I think the banding is going to be historic. I think the GFS sucks and said that 6 hours ago in the face of relentless cries of this thing trending rest to Chicago Anything GFS based goes in the trash for now. I'll ride the rest of the models without the feedback...and the 0z Euro. Uh that's the Nam I linked, what I think you are not seeing is the banding. But yea this cores a black hole into CCs atmosphere. I am amused by the news media tonight downplaying a blizzard watch. I mean WTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I really feel like there's a big difference between the GFS moving away from the insane 18z to a more reasonable solution and the event totally being canceled for everywhere beyond the outer cape.Pickles has adopted the PF style of posting, he did it Monday then jumped on the train Tuesday night and wanted to be the conductor, nobody in EMA RI ECT is getting mood flakes only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 A foot in a quick hitting storm is very tough. However if you expect 6+ you'll be satisfied, Trust me, sometimes you go years between 6 inchers. Now speaking to other comments: This is not in the least bit comparable to 1/21. Well at least latitudinally. 1/21 had the band collapse south as the system was say SE of the bm and heading east, This system should come within 50 miles of the bm and head ne bombing the whole time. I think the cape can get big totals but out on the elbow I'm a ilittle worried about temperatures. In fact even for Boston I'm concerned at the outset that we'll lose some qpf to non accumulating snow until it gets to freezing. I think good totals 6+ are a decent bet BGR-LEW-MHT-LWM-ORH-TOL-PVD and east. I think 8+ from Weymouth to just east of PVD on SE. I think 12+ could occur between Hyannis and PYM. Downeast Maine 12-18. Solid solid reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 A foot in a quick hitting storm is very tough. However if you expect 6+ you'll be satisfied, Trust me, sometimes you go years between 6 inchers. Now speaking to other comments: This is not in the least bit comparable to 1/21. Well at least latitudinally. 1/21 had the band collapse south as the system was say SE of the bm and heading east, This system should come within 50 miles of the bm and head ne bombing the whole time. I think the cape can get big totals but out on the elbow I'm a ilittle worried about temperatures. In fact even for Boston I'm concerned at the outset that we'll lose some qpf to non accumulating snow until it gets to freezing. I think good totals 6+ are a decent bet BGR-LEW-MHT-LWM-ORH-TOL-PVD and east. I think 8+ from Weymouth to just east of PVD on SE. I think 12+ could occur between Hyannis and PYM. Downeast Maine 12-18. I had the same thought about temperatures as well. I feel like we may not be wet, but it may be non accumulating snow for a little bit until this thing strengthens. Either way, I'll take whatever I get. This was nothing just a few days ago. We will see what happens. That razor sharp gradient is enticing, but also scary. If this wobbles west boom, if it wobbles east it's just a nice light to moderate event. All solutions are still kind of in the margin for error envelope. I ultimately think this still ends up as a large event (6+) for a decent amount of people. And if there is some epic banding, then who knows, all bets are off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The wetness of the initial snow might be what screws the Cape with power. Pickles mentioned Phil, he is very concerned with power issues and hoping for colder outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Incidentally the model formerly known as the nogaps is pretty robust on tonight's run. It used to have a huge progressive bias...not sure if it still does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
neweathereye Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I wouldn't be to sure of that thought ...no one should be downplaying anything..Blizzard watch..some folks are to quick to pull the plug on these systems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Mr Gerald at least this hole in NE will be filled as we wind down our month of Epicosity and oh yea keep Tueday in the back of your mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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