Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 All bets are off if we can close off 700/850 underneath LI. 18z GFS manages to do this Would be even better if we can pinch off 500mb too. Solid solution on the 18z GFS E of ORH. Would be advisory level w/ warning levels in SE MA & Cape. Yep, nuke! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Seems to be some decent agreement on this at least in the fact that the major models show a hit in one form or another. I was hoping for some favorable trends today as the models got a better read/initialization on today's storm...and we got it. Hopefully those of us coastal and SE peeps that got somewhat screwed today can make up for it a bit with this one. Not sure anyone away from the cape has a shot at warning criteria though. Looks like our last chance to add to the snowpack before it starts disappearing with milder temps and increasing sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 WOw, close to a tasty solution. I'd call the GFS verbatim a tasty solution in itself. If the Euro bites overnight, I will be delighted. The NAM will probably have at least one run in the next 24 hours that pulls this 18z GFS mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man that H7 solution argues for many inches well above the QPF depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Would love to have the Euro on board with something more substantial than a couple inches right now. That was a pretty sizable change on the 18z GFS with the s/w digging that far S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 doesn't need a lot of QPF to be a huge impact... 1) hits not two days after this current puppy finishes licking his balls 2) very high wind due to very rapid bombogenesis and isallobaric wind response 3) there's enough qpf here anyway to be 6+" of wind whipped impact E of I-90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lets see if we can get this one to come NW, 18z GFS certainly is trying, 12Z Euro was better then 0z was a couple tics west as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Would love too see the euro come on board to believe something 6+ could be possible. Regardless it looks like there will be some snow, especially in areas that got hosed today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This ones coming too. Euro will get on board in a big way tonight.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 And another on tues to boot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Man, I am just falling off my chair agog over this run... This is only 50 to 60 hours away, people. I tracked the wave dynamics back in time -- it just came on board over land on this initialization! 00z run is going to be interesting as a hugely inadequately emphasized statement. And consistency and/or joining by other model types and we're going right back into a wsw scenario by tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Saturday, then Tuesday the last in the series. Big torch and then euro ens with a big reload. Winter of 2013-14 rockin on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I can see coastal areas ending up with taint, GFS usually has a SE bias, and it is the furthest NW model!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Saturday, then Tuesday the last in the series. Big torch and then euro ens with a big reload. Winter of 2013-14 rockin on. Scooter says possible muted torch now.ala Ginx..but with rain..I'll take whichever one melts less snow. Which BTW I have 20 OTG with replacements coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I can see coastal areas ending up with taint, GFS usually has a SE bias, and it is the furthest NW model!! Euro is barely a hit, it's the furthest SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Gotta be careful what we wish for lol. Don't want any mixing issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Gotta be careful what we wish for lol. Don't want any mixing issues. If I get 11 snowflakes it'll verify better than this system. I'll take my chances on the clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I can see coastal areas ending up with taint, GFS usually has a SE bias, and it is the furthest NW model!! Not a single model is showing taint for anywhere off the cape. None. These are not taint like systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Gotta be careful what we wish for lol. Don't want any mixing issues. Let's wait for the Euro to show significant impact before worrying about ptype issues, shall we? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If I get 11 snowflakes it'll verify better than this system. I'll take my chances on the clipper. Lol I hear you. This system was a dud here. I will admit this favors areas that got screwed today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not a single model is showing taint for anywhere off the cape. None. These are not taint like systems. Not yet, if trends continue then yes, 18z RGEM shows taint on the cape. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=gemreg&stn=PT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Let's wait for the Euro to show significant impact before worrying about ptype issues, shall we?[/quote We shall, a little gun shy after today, can't lame me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Not yet, if trends continue then yes, 18z RGEM shows taint on the cape. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=gemreg&stn=PT It would have to stop and come due north 500 miles from the 54 hour position to worry about taint. that said it could hit anywhere from Bermuda to Montreal based on model performance with this current system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That second event is more Monday ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 I actually don't like how it is digging a bit further south on some guidance like the RGEM and esp the Ukie...that gives more of a risk of that bottom lobe sort of picnhing off and not rounding the base of the long wave trough. So you get a low that squirts east. I would like to see the vorticity in Wisconsin around 00z tomorrow night phase with the main vortmax further south to help prevent the southern vortmax escaping while the northern flow tries to go too zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I actually don't like how it is digging a bit further south on some guidance like the RGEM and esp the Ukie...that gives more of a risk of that bottom lobe sort of picnhing off and not rounding the base of the long wave trough. So you get a low that squirts east. I would like to see the vorticity in Wisconsin around 00z tomorrow night phase with the main vortmax further south to help prevent the southern vortmax escaping while the northern flow tries to go too zonal. That came to mind as well...almost like the event a few weeks ago. I suppose this time around the models rapidly develop the low, but that's the risk you run. If that happens congrats Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 That came to mind as well...almost like the event a few weeks ago. I suppose this time around the models rapidly develop the low, but that's the risk you run. If that happens congrats Nova Scotia. Since when is the RGEM correct at hour 54? Trend is your friend, every run on every model for the last 48 hours has gotten better for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Since when is the RGEM correct at hour 54? Trend is your friend, every run on every model for the last 48 hours has gotten better for us. It's not a reference to the RGEM, it's the overall setup. It still can work if the vortmax is sharp enough and cyclogenesis occurs near the coast like the GFS shows..it's just riskier. GEFS look pretty nice for this area, but we'll see what 00z guidance does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 My only fear is the GEFS have been too qpf happy with coastals this winter. Look at the one on Sunday night when they were printing out 4-6 and most had 1-2. Euro def made a move NE and nice to have GGEm on board for a hit..but let's get another big bump NW on Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z GFS Ensm. 54h 60h Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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