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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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Seems to be some decent agreement on this at least in the fact that the major models show a hit in one form or another. I was hoping for some favorable trends today as the models got a better read/initialization on today's storm...and we got it. Hopefully those of us coastal and SE peeps that got somewhat screwed today can make up for it a bit with this one. Not sure anyone away from the cape has a shot at warning criteria though. Looks like our last chance to add to the snowpack before it starts disappearing with milder temps and increasing sun angle.

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doesn't need a lot of QPF to be a huge impact...

 

1) hits not two days after this current puppy finishes licking his balls

 

2) very high wind due to very rapid bombogenesis and isallobaric wind response

 

3) there's enough qpf here anyway to be 6+" of wind whipped impact E of I-90

 

gfs_namer_057_1000_500_thick_s.gif

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Man, I am just falling off my chair agog over this run... 

 

This is only 50 to 60 hours away, people.  

 

I tracked the wave dynamics back in time -- it just came on board over land on this initialization!  00z run is going to be interesting as a hugely inadequately emphasized statement.  And consistency and/or joining by other model types and we're going right back into a wsw scenario by tomorrow evening. 

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Not yet, if trends continue then yes, 18z RGEM shows taint on the cape. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_anim.php?lang=en&map=qc&run=18&mod=gemreg&stn=PT

 

It would have to stop and come due north 500 miles from the 54 hour position to worry about taint.

 

that said it could hit anywhere from Bermuda to Montreal based on model performance with this current system.

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I actually don't like how it is digging a bit further south on some guidance like the RGEM and esp the Ukie...that gives more of a risk of that bottom lobe sort of picnhing off and not rounding the base of the long wave trough. So you get a low that squirts east.

 

I would like to see the vorticity in Wisconsin around 00z tomorrow night phase with the main vortmax further south to help prevent the southern vortmax escaping while the northern flow tries to go too zonal.

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I actually don't like how it is digging a bit further south on some guidance like the RGEM and esp the Ukie...that gives more of a risk of that bottom lobe sort of picnhing off and not rounding the base of the long wave trough. So you get a low that squirts east.

 

I would like to see the vorticity in Wisconsin around 00z tomorrow night phase with the main vortmax further south to help prevent the southern vortmax escaping while the northern flow tries to go too zonal.

 

That came to mind as well...almost like the event a few weeks ago. I suppose this time around the models rapidly develop the low, but that's the risk you run. If that happens congrats Nova Scotia.

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That came to mind as well...almost like the event a few weeks ago. I suppose this time around the models rapidly develop the low, but that's the risk you run. If that happens congrats Nova Scotia.

Since when is the RGEM correct at hour 54? Trend is your friend, every run on every model for the last 48 hours has gotten better for us.

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Since when is the RGEM correct at hour 54? Trend is your friend, every run on every model for the last 48 hours has gotten better for us.

 

It's not a reference to the RGEM, it's the overall setup. It still can work  if the vortmax is sharp enough and cyclogenesis occurs near the coast like the GFS shows..it's just riskier. 

 

GEFS look pretty nice for this area, but we'll see what 00z guidance does.

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