CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Still feel like 18z GFS is a bit too amped, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Still feel like 18z GFS is a bit too amped, but we'll see. Just like the EURO was too amped a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Still feel like 18z GFS is a bit too amped, but we'll see.There is a definite reason you feel that way, it's called the ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Just like the EURO was too amped a few days ago. Well I could be wrong, but just my feeling. It's not an overwhelming feeling put it that way...because I understand fully why its doing what it is doing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 There is a definite reason you feel that way, it's called the ECMWF. Nah, it doesn't sway me that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM pounds BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nah, it doesn't away me that much.I don't know much about meteorology, so it's harder for me to determine which model is on to something. But I know one thing, and that is that modelology is better than nothing. ECMWF won the last round.Edit: most rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 And what I mean is that I could see a combo of 18z GFS 12z euro....I am not saying a whiff..lol. I think that is reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I love that TV mets are shaking in their boots in ENE and can't believe the models , usually means it's on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I don't know much about meteorology, so it's harder for me to determine which model is on to something. But I know one thing, and that is that modelology is better than nothing. ECMWF won the last round. It's usually the better guidance, but usually does not equate to always correct. You have to understand the circumstances...and I would actually give a bit of a nod to the GFS because of explosive deepening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM IMHO is still too compact. I think snow would be more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 LOL, 968 in the Gulf of Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 some whacked out sref members both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 ARN4 ftw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The SREF plumes are a joke. Even up in central NH for LCI they have half the members over 20" and half less then 5" with like one member in the middle. If you take away the ARW members the mean goes from 10" to 5", for example. One NMM member brings 2.5" QPF to VT lol. In BOS it goes from 12" to 8" which shows that BOS is in decent shape regardless of a NW shift. It's places like ORH to ASH that are more borderline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I have zero met reasoning but i think this may go east at 0z on most guidance...DT type hunch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Lol knife edge gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 LOL, 968 in the Gulf of Maine.I like where my buddy in Calais ME sits for this one. I also like where messenger sits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM has 3" on the outer cape and the .5" doesn't make it NW of RI...talk about a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM has 3" on the outer cape and the .5" doesn't make it NW of RI...talk about a gradient. NAM is always to compressed with the heavy qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM has 3" on the outer cape and the .5" doesn't make it NW of RI...talk about a gradient.There's Messengers convective feedback issue, like Scooter said, too compact, spread the wealth, blend the models and you have probably close to reality. One thing locked up is a power grabbing Blizzard on the outer cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah, it's the NAM. Modelology 101 says to trash it like your girl's ex boyfriend's mama. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Every run. The dregs came in stronger. Now let's gets the good ones showing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Lol knife edge gradient Tell me about it. At least I don't have to lose any sleep worrying about which side of the line I'll be on at the Pit. I have more confidence up here in Bartlett of seeing a few inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Every run. The dregs came in stronger. Now let's gets the good ones showing it.lol, preseason over, time for starters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 There's Messengers convective feedback issue, like Scooter said, too compact, spread the wealth, blend the models and you have probably close to reality. One thing locked up is a power grabbing Blizzard on the outer cape This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM is always to compressed with the heavy qpf. It will be on board at 0z tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This is off the charts banding on the NAM. Completely apesh*t. I just don't buy how compact it is..but part of it may be related to lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nam is about 20 miles too Far East for bigger hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM if all snow could bring 30-40" amounts to the Outer Cape. I know its likely overdone with the QPF max, but with the H7 through surface lows all southeast of Nantucket, this is likely all snow or at least some rain to start. I would go conservatively with 6-12" over Barnstable county, MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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