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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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I don't know much about meteorology, so it's harder for me to determine which model is on to something. But I know one thing, and that is that modelology is better than nothing. ECMWF won the last round.

 

It's usually the better guidance, but usually does not equate to always correct. You have to understand the circumstances...and I would actually give a bit of a nod to the GFS because of explosive deepening.

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The SREF plumes are a joke. Even up in central NH for LCI they have half the members over 20" and half less then 5" with like one member in the middle. If you take away the ARW members the mean goes from 10" to 5", for example. One NMM member brings 2.5" QPF to VT lol.

 

In BOS it goes from 12" to 8" which shows that BOS is in decent shape regardless of a NW shift. It's places like ORH to ASH that are more borderline.

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NAM has 3" on the outer cape and the .5" doesn't make it NW of RI...talk about a gradient.

There's Messengers convective feedback issue, like Scooter said, too compact, spread the wealth, blend the models and you have probably close to reality. One thing locked up is a power grabbing Blizzard on the outer cape
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