40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yes but the scenario laid out was almost unanimous consensus at 988. Still could be a decent snow...didn't Will say 2005 was something like 995, but just rapid bombing from like 1010? The actual lowest pressure is not as good an indicator as the overall regime....ie the pressure field of the ambient enviornment. Its all about the gradient. The blizzard of '78 was like 984 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The intensity of the frontal zone given the air mass contrast, rapid pressure falls, could produce astounding totals now in most of CT, nwRI and w/c MA. I would not be surprised if this goes to 35 or even 40 inches in some places with a widespread 25-30. NAM has clearly indicated a very compressed thickness gradient that the GGEM failed to handle. That is structurally how this storm will avoid a widespread changeover during the rapid intensification stage later today and in fact the dynamics are so intense that rain may lose the battle along the front. No doubt this will lead to epic thunder-snow, and closer to the frontal zone thunder-sleet with large ice pellets possible. Very strong NNE winds will develop with the heavy precip (ESE near the Cape). This could be a very similar storm in structural terms to the Blizzard of 1888. The 30-40 inch snow potential will likely extend into NH and ME which will have fewer cases of coastal mixing as the cold air is already in place before the rapid deepening phase. Then it looks like another 6-12 inches on Saturday, if there's any real break between storms, since this one will backbuild as it pulls away (it will be absorbing the Wisconsin blizzard remnant, yesterday this was dumping S+ in nw ND and se SK. This is feedback from the anomalously cold winter further west, another similarity to 1888. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Good stuff, agree and have posted similarly. Out of my pay-grade, but I wonder if the GEFS are as sensitive as the GFS to this bit of convection shaping the midlevel centers? Because the GEFS have been solidly consistent with the op. Gefs would suffer the same fate. I'm less certain of my proclamation after a few beers. Well several. I'm sure there is feedback in the gfs. Hpc is 100% right it's there and obvious. Not confident it matters. But still tossing the gfs for a consensus of all others left 25 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That Roger Smith cat should be just super glued inside of a 6' bun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That Roger Smith cat should be just super glued inside of a 6' bun.I think he was enjoying a fine glass of scotch.But I understand his point. That one, and this next one, are abnormally dynamic systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That Roger Smith cat should be just super glued inside of a 6' bun.his might be my favorite post of all time, lol.Cips number 1 is 1/27/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The actual lowest pressure is not as good an indicator as the overall regime....ie the pressure field of the ambient enviornment. Its all about the gradient. The blizzard of '78 was like 984 mb. Violently agree. It's all about the environmental pressure, not the actual value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think he was enjoying a fine glass of scotch. But I understand his point. That one, and this next one, are abnormally dynamic systems. Full moon storms are the best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Gefs would suffer the same fate. I'm less certain of my proclamation after a few beers. Well several. I'm sure there is feedback in the gfs. Hpc is 100% right it's there and obvious. Not confident it matters. But still tossing the gfs for a consensus of all others left 25 miles Right 25 miles? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The actual lowest pressure is not as good an indicator as the overall regime....ie the pressure field of the ambient enviornment. Its all about the gradient. The blizzard of '78 was like 984 mb. Exactly... Jan 05 below... notable not for the SLP nadir but the tremendous 1032 HP: James we're all rooting for you... hope this storm approaches your signature description... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Gefs would suffer the same fate. I'm less certain of my proclamation after a few beers. Well several. I'm sure there is feedback in the gfs. Hpc is 100% right it's there and obvious. Not confident it matters. But still tossing the gfs for a consensus of all others left 25 miles except that HPC comment was based on 12z initial errors propagating through the run, what reason for 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 except that HPC comment was based on 12z initial errors propagating through the run, what reason for 18z? It's been more obvious in the 18z and they don't comment on off hour runs which theoretically would be much work because of the intake scheme. It's glaring on the 18z Steve but as john often says sometimes it's a legitimate process. There is no accompanying qpf blob either. It's there but it may not matter at all. I am betting it's responsible for extending qpf too far west but I may be totally wrong. I'd put it at 60/40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA438 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 -- Changed Discussion -- LOW PRESSURE AND UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER THE PLAINS RACE TO THENORTH CAROLINA COAST BY 12Z SATURDAY. ALL MODELS SHOW ANINTENSIFYING COASTAL LOW MOVING NORTHEAST FROM THERE...PASSINGNEAR HE 40N/70W BENCHMARK EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT. GFS HAD INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS...WE LEANED TOWARD THE 12Z ECMWF WITH QPFFROM THE NE RIVER FORECAST CENTER. WE ALSO ADJUSTEDTEMPS/DEWPOINTS TO ALLOW FOR WET BULB COOLING ONCE THEPRECIPITATION COMMENCES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wow....SREFs are WAY west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wow....SREFs are WAY west.1.00" up to MHT and 0.50"to the VT/NH border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Too bad they still suck at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wow....SREFs are WAY west. The drum beats are getting louder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Too bad they still suck at this range. It's all about the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 1.00" up to MHT and 0.50"to the VT/NH border. They weren't bad last event. I'm feeling this one. Go heavy, or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's all about the trendThey usually trend toward suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 just outside the bm on slp 984mb. 976 due east of cc. damn! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 They usually trend toward suck. Amped up ARW members? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Amped up ARW members?No idea yet. Just looking at the mean. There's probably 6 creaming PF, 3 whiffs, and a few with a reasonable solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wow....SREFs are WAY west. At what point does "way west" become a problem with wet vs. white, or is that not nec. going to be the case here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 At what point does "way west" become a problem with wet vs. white, or is that not nec. going to be the case here? Won't be an issue for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Holy sh"t! Every run gets more robust! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Too bad they still suck at this range.24 hrs. Lol, are they good at -24, but yea that's in the very least a sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Initialization errors.....rarely have an impact. Srefs really make me wonder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Initialization errors.....rarely have an impact. Srefs really make me wonderDon't worry. You are still getting whacked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Sref oddly perform best in big qpf events. Im buying stock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.