eduggs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If that s/w north of the Lakes trends a little further west - especially if it drops into the trof - this thing could wrap up right into the Cape again. The more if shifts west, the more heights rise over NNE. That gives the neg tilting trof room to tuck closer to the coast. Or at least it might not shunt it so far east as it cuts off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I honestly thing we're getting creamed by this. I think all guidance tonight will come in robust for alot of CT/MA/NH/ME. Agree..based on seasonal trends. wagons west all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Agree..based on seasonal trends. wagons west all year This could actually cut right up the I95 corridor, we saw jumps of 100+ miles inside of 12 hours yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 OKX just went watch for 6-8 for SE CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Forecast: partly cloudy with a 63% chance of public outcry in the aftermath of an enormous society impact, more than impart missed because those charged with the responsibility to keep civility informed tried to out think the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msg112469 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I don't usually post here......but I think you may be right. Something crazy is going happen with tonight's models. Big shift west and stall south of Cape. I honestly thing we're getting creamed by this. I think all guidance tonight will come in robust for alot of CT/MA/NH/ME. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=18&fhour=48¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Absolute crushing. Weenie snow maps are going to be epic, lol, if only.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Aside of Will that chimed in.....does everyone feel the GFS at 18z was correct and just part of the overall "trend" west? Thoughts on the feedback noted by NCEP and that may or may not be evident 15-21z tomorrow? C'mon John you must have a 10 paragraph post in you that helps us all understand the differences between hydro/non hydro and which one should be superior in this case? I really do think it comes down to the convection, right or wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 OKX just went watch for 6-8 for SE CT Actually looks like 3-5 inches is their forecast. CTZ008-150915- NORTHERN NEW LONDON- 356 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY...SNOW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. BLUSTERY WITH LOWS AROUND 20. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. CTZ012-150915- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON- 356 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. BRISK WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 These storms can sometimes get sneaky at the last second....so it wouldn't completely shock me if the GFS was right...but more often than not, we will see an outlier GFS run come back to earth versus continuing to lead the trend. Remember the Feb 17 storm last year? That was the one the weekend after the blizzard. The GFS did something like this where it was trying to wreck eastern MA/RI but in the end it proved to be too far west and a more moderate event took shape. I do think this one will be a bit higher impact than that, but I was throwing it out as an example of the GFS leading a trend, but then overdoing it around the 24-30 hour mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=GFS&grid=3&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=02&model_dd=14&model_init_hh=18&fhour=48¶meter=SNOWIN&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false That includes snow otg though , new ones for 18Z will be out very soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Actually looks like 3-5 inches is their forecast. CTZ008-150915- NORTHERN NEW LONDON- 356 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. WEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY...SNOW...MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 5 MPH...INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF SNOW 80 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. BLUSTERY WITH LOWS AROUND 20. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. CTZ012-150915- SOUTHERN NEW LONDON- 356 PM EST FRI FEB 14 2014 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING...THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY. BRISK WITH LOWS IN THE MID 20S. WEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH AFTER MIDNIGHT. .SATURDAY...CLOUDY. A CHANCE OF RAIN WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW IN THE MORNING...THEN SNOW AND RAIN IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 30S. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 80 PERCENT. .SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN PARTLY CLOUDY AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN THE EVENING. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES. WINDY WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. I just got a NWS text alert dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 These storms can sometimes get sneaky at the last second....so it wouldn't completely shock me if the GFS was right...but more often than not, we will see an outlier GFS run come back to earth versus continuing to lead the trend. Remember the Feb 17 storm last year? That was the one the weekend after the blizzard. The GFS did something like this where it was trying to wreck eastern MA/RI but in the end it proved to be too far west and a more moderate event took shape. I do think this one will be a bit higher impact than that, but I was throwing it out as an example of the GFS leading a trend, but then overdoing it around the 24-30 hour mark. Will I just don't know what to make of the HPC and their comments on feedback. As I said directly this is one of the few times it appears to be evident and have a meaningful effect in tightening the northern spin in the structure. HPC notes two instances of convective feedback on the 12z run, one on each coast. I still toss the 18z GFS for a consensus of the other models perhaps adjusted 20-30 miles west. May go down in flames, but I think the GFS is wrong. I figure if one is going to take a stand on it effecting something better to do it now than the "i told you so" one way or the other after the 0z. ECMWF IS SLOWER THAN ITS OWN ENSEMBLE MEAN WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE 12Z GFS SHOWS A RARE CASE OF CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK WHILE THIS SYSTEM IS STILL OFFSHORE OREGON SUNDAY, WHICH COULD LEAD TO ITS MORE PROGRESSIVE NATURE I also don't know fully how it leads to increased progression, in fact seems to be the opposite which has me wondering if it really matters much. Whatever it was, or is, it accelerated in the 18z run. AN ISSUE THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF THEIR FORECASTS. WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST WHICH STRENGTHEN ITS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD LEAD TO SOME EXCESSIVE PROGRESSION, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Aside of Will that chimed in.....does everyone feel the GFS at 18z was correct and just part of the overall "trend" west? Thoughts on the feedback noted by NCEP and that may or may not be evident 15-21z tomorrow? C'mon John you must have a 10 paragraph post in you that helps us all understand the differences between hydro/non hydro and which one should be superior in this case? I really do think it comes down to the convection, right or wrong. I think we all feel the same, but the "trend" cannot be ignored. This is a major height fall with a low rapidly developing along the wall of the gulf stream. Bombogenesis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 These storms can sometimes get sneaky at the last second....so it wouldn't completely shock me if the GFS was right...but more often than not, we will see an outlier GFS run come back to earth versus continuing to lead the trend. Remember the Feb 17 storm last year? That was the one the weekend after the blizzard. The GFS did something like this where it was trying to wreck eastern MA/RI but in the end it proved to be too far west and a more moderate event took shape. I do think this one will be a bit higher impact than that, but I was throwing it out as an example of the GFS leading a trend, but then overdoing it around the 24-30 hour mark. Wasn't there a storm in Late Jan of last year where the GFS did this within 36-42 hours? I could've sworn it was in late January, but maybe it did that twice lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CapturedNature Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I just got a NWS text alert dude. The watch does mention the potential for 6-8, but the expectation is for 3-5. I think there's some caution that amounts could be higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Aside of Will that chimed in.....does everyone feel the GFS at 18z was correct and just part of the overall "trend" west? Thoughts on the feedback noted by NCEP and that may or may not be evident 15-21z tomorrow? C'mon John you must have a 10 paragraph post in you that helps us all understand the differences between hydro/non hydro and which one should be superior in this case? I really do think it comes down to the convection, right or wrong. It may be overdone but you have to give it some weight and it has led the way and every other model seems to be continuing the westward shift, Until you see it cease or head the other way you have to factor it in, We are getting inside 24 hrs on the models, 0z tonight should start to tell the tale, One way or the other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 These storms can sometimes get sneaky at the last second....so it wouldn't completely shock me if the GFS was right...but more often than not, we will see an outlier GFS run come back to earth versus continuing to lead the trend. Remember the Feb 17 storm last year? That was the one the weekend after the blizzard. The GFS did something like this where it was trying to wreck eastern MA/RI but in the end it proved to be too far west and a more moderate event took shape. I do think this one will be a bit higher impact than that, but I was throwing it out as an example of the GFS leading a trend, but then overdoing it around the 24-30 hour mark. Remember it well but if I remember right it was alone and no other model had the nuke like the other majors do today? so its more a matter of placement this time?so very close to start time, probably overamped but Wxniss and Jerry make valid points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If that s/w north of the Lakes trends a little further west - especially if it drops into the trof - this thing could wrap up right into the Cape again. The more if shifts west, the more heights rise over NNE. That gives the neg tilting trof room to tuck closer to the coast. Or at least it might not shunt it so far east as it cuts off. Yes 2 critical factors I'm seeing here: 1) the distribution of shortwave energy rounding the base of the trough and how it influences sharpness/tilt of the trough over Carolinas 12z Saturday ---> this ultimately influences how close the SLP reflection tracks GFS has the sharper trough etc... vs. NAM hence further west track 2) the shortwave over Quebec compare h5 at 6z Sunday... GFS has stronger energy that closes off at h5, raising heights more over Maine and slowing down the east exit of our storm GFS NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If the GFS were to "come back down to earth" and trend toward other guidance when would we expect that to happen by? Seems like we're getting pretty close to go time. The 00Z runs will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The watch does mention the potential for 6-8, but the expectation is for 3-5. I think there's some caution that amounts could be higher. I wouldn't mind that part of the state getting 8. I've got 42.2 on the season in Old Lyme so far. 8 inches would make it the snowiest February and put it in striking distance of my snowiest winter 59.4 in 04-05 with a month plus to go. Granted I only have records for the last decade, but it's always fun to set new winter records. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Just got back from VT. Wow at the GFS. What a run. Gotta say the GFS has been leading the charge on this one... gotta put at least some stock in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If the GFS were to "come back down to earth" and trend toward other guidance when would we expect that to happen by? Seems like we're getting pretty close to go time. The 00Z runs will be telling.Subtle tick east?If that. Not sold on that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J Paul Gordon Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Pretty safe to say ORH maxes at 3-6? Have to travel Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spoons56 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Pretty safe to say ORH maxes at 3-6? Have to travel Sunday morning. I'd say a 2-4/3-6" call in the Worcester area is more of a floor than a ceiling at this point thanks to recent trends. Although any tick east would squash the higher total potential. Just my amateur opinion though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 just your normal 60 Knot sustained day on the Cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman21 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 nice I thought you lived in SWCT?, this and Monday Tuesday might break the record. I do but I have a relative there with property big enough to properly site a weather station that has been there and will continue to be there for a long time. Guaranteeing a long period of record was important in finding someone to host a weather station for me. I'll eventually set one up here too, but every year I tell myself I'm moving from the beach to back country to gain a few extra inches of snowfall a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Pretty safe to say ORH maxes at 3-6? Have to travel Sunday morning. no , not safe to say any max of 3-6 with this for ORH, could be more depends where banding on this tight little NUKE sets up if we could only get it to stall a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Like the last storm, the dynamics are on steroids and that will lead to continuing changes in the models right up to game time and beyond. Key here is that the gfs closes the 700 and 500 levels and the negative tilt is becoming enormous. This charge west is real and if the upper levels follow gfs guidance, slp must get caught and vector closer to the coast. Strengthening of slp is epic and if there was any blocking at all.... Subtle tick east?If that. Not sold on that either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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