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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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So is the gfs suffering from feedback or is it merely a real process that will take place? Gfs was awful yesterday in being too Far East....is it too far west?

What's your vote? I think there is feedback starting around 12-15h I'm just not convinced it's having a huge impact on the model.

 

It is probably overdone...I thought that at 12z, and still think it at 18z, but I do think this might be a case of the Euro taking slightly longer to come west than maybe it should. Hard to place a lot of trust in the NAM/SREF camp as they are the model dregs beyond 24 hours.

 

 

RGEM still being mainly a BOS-PVD hit gives me pause. I suspect that we may see the Euro tick back west another 25-30 miles, but not much more...this is probably the pinnacle of GFS over-trendign, and it will begin to leak back SE now...that is my take anyway.

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I'm surprised everyone is jumping on the 18z GFS.

All the other models are pretty much in reasonable agreement at this stage.  There's one huge outlier.

I don't buy it yet, watchful eye, but it goes berserk with the 5h above a bunch of convection Saturday afternoon.   Very skeptical and although even with this run I'm still on the good side of things...just don't believe it evolves like that.

That said the one yesterday never stopped going west.

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It is probably overdone...I thought that at 12z, and still think it at 18z, but I do think this might be a case of the Euro taking slightly longer to come west than maybe it should. Hard to place a lot of trust in the NAM/SREF camp as they are the model dregs beyond 24 hours.

 

 

RGEM still being mainly a BOS-PVD hit gives me pause. I suspect that we may see the Euro tick back west another 25-30 miles, but not much more...this is probably the pinnacle of GFS over-trendign, and it will begin to leak back SE now...that is my take anyway.

 

Agreed.  UK was SE too and it was among the most aggressive with yesterdays.

 

Like I said though...yesterdays never stopped going west right up through the last run.

 

LOL..never an easy forecast for you guys.

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The GFS is still by itself though and being alone with it can be a scary thing. Can't wait to watch the Boston OCMs tonight to see who bites the hook the hardest.

Its over amped but it was first to this party, maybe leading the charge, saw the chatter about 12Z runs initialized too low with SW, maybe new ingest did the trick, at any rate I don"t think anyone "bought' the 18Z just commenting on the run, some are very nervous though.

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18-21 hour maps are the key on the "all others" vs GFS camp.

 

At 15z Saturday the GFS has a 998 mb low consolidating inland over NC west of convection that it has run right up to the outer banks.  The other models are all diffuse, with the convection further offshore by 50+ miles.   From there the GFS fires the convection further, really goes to the town with the mid level centers right under it and wraps the entire thing much closer to the coast. 

 

That's the crux of the difference.  All of the other models key on the outer convection and spin up the low from there which moves northward.  The GFS says no...starts to spin up the low inland over the Carolinas behind a line of intense convection it fires across the Carolinas.

 

We need a Tippy 40 paragraph posts to explain which type of model may be right or wrong here, but that's your difference and IMO it's that simple.  One model camp is right, one is wrong.

 

IMO it's not really a first to the party thing.  It's either right or wrong on that convection.  ALL models are trending stronger and naturally that'll lead to more convection which is either increasing the "rightness" of the GFS or causing it to fall down.  TBH I have no idea which it is.  Feedback is an overused term and IMO more times than not in the last few years when we thought it was effecting the outcome it wasn't

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What's interesting to me as I cycle through the past four runs of the GFS overlayed with each other is that the SLP track has not come that far west.  It really hasn't changed much since yesterday.  The biggest change is the precip shield has gradually trended more expansive to the NW.  This is evident as moisture on the 700mb charts wraps further west each run.

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What's interesting to me as I cycle through the past four runs of the GFS overlayed with each other is that the SLP track has not come that far west.  It really hasn't changed much since yesterday.  The biggest change is the precip shield has gradually trended more expansive to the NW.  This is evident as moisture on the 700mb charts wraps further west each run.

 

 

Look at 500mb, it's the only model with almost 2 speed maxes within the core tomorrow afternoon.  One associated with the convection that fires further north than the other models.   It therefore drives the dynamics with it that can toss precip much further back than the other models, which are keyed east with the seaward max...and struggle to pull precip west.

 

GFS is either going to implode over feedback or all the other models did.

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I honestly thing we're getting creamed by this.  I think all guidance tonight will come in robust for alot of CT/MA/NH/ME.

 

Agree with you Jerry... there's an unambiguous "inertia" here with every single model in 0z-12z-18z suites. We're not seeing waffling back and forth. Every model is trending west, and as best I can tell, that's a consequence of sharper digging trough that tilts negative more quickly. That suggests to me all the models are more accurately picking up on some new data as we get closer, and would not be surprised to see this trend continue into 0z suite.

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