Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 A few offices and NCEP mentioned the GFS had a feedback issue. Probably why it was able to toss more precip further west vs the sharp cutoff many others are showing. I kind of expect that'll start to mute out in these upcoming runs. I think it's wrong with that. High stakes game with this cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WWA for 3-5 for us I'm almost positive if tends hold, you'll be upped tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 A few offices and NCEP mentioned the GFS had a feedback issue. Probably why it was able to toss more precip further west vs the sharp cutoff many others are showing. I kind of expect that'll start to mute out in these upcoming runs. I think it's wrong with that. High stakes game with this cutoff. I thought a few discussions were siding with the GFS run? Or maybe they were referring to the 6z run. Either way..it was nearly identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 A few offices and NCEP mentioned the GFS had a feedback issue. Probably why it was able to toss more precip further west vs the sharp cutoff many others are showing. I kind of expect that'll start to mute out in these upcoming runs. I think it's wrong with that. High stakes game with this cutoff. FB would cause the precip blobs you saw east of the track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm almost positive if tends hold, you'll be upped tonight That's critical, though. Even the slightest tic east -- again, gradient is tight -- and some of the existing warnings seem overdone. If -- and only if -- the trend continues, then two things happen: - the warnings will expand and there'll be a much greater impact - the GFS will deserve credit for the scoop on this one, because it sniffed it out at 18z yesterday while most other models took until 12z runs today to head in the same direction. Otherwise, the GFS is the "left" goalpost still and reality is somewhere between there and the Euro (with extra weight still on the Euro because it is the Euro). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 RGEM is west again at 18z...this run probably gets close to warning criteria in BOS...almost a half inch of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Thinking is that the H5 low captures the surface low and slows it down as it reaches low 970s as it tracks just east of CHH. Any farther west and we are rain for a good portion. Right now we don't need to see a tick west, just show a better precip shield. Which there should be given that the storm deepens at a 30mb/18 hours rate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 For MBY, i think another tick west is needed for the excellent stuff. Still depicted is a nice hit so I'll take what I get. If it comes in more robust, BOS could be near 60 for the season in mid February and even without, mid 50s easily attainable I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 FB would cause the precip blobs you saw east of the track GFS is going to be wrong with that epic extension west, IMO. Tight gradient in the east, 18z RGEM runs it from about Boston to about Providence. That seems very reasonable. I think Taunton as of now has a good handle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 A few offices and NCEP mentioned the GFS had a feedback issue. Probably why it was able to toss more precip further west vs the sharp cutoff many others are showing. I kind of expect that'll start to mute out in these upcoming runs. I think it's wrong with that. High stakes game with this cutoff. Very curious as to the next run. I don't think it will be west like before. Nice avatar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 RGEM is west again at 18z...this run probably gets close to warning criteria in BOS...almost a half inch of QPF.nice, hope Cape is OK with temps? Would really like this to nuke them. I am good with sloppy seconds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 RGEM is west again at 18z...this run probably gets close to warning criteria in BOS...almost a half inch of QPF. All models agree on that being the dividing line, aside of the GFS. We will see if this is one of those few times the GFS isn't overdone and is actually leading the pack. My stake in the ground is that although we may see another 30-40 mile wobble, the GFS by and large is overdone. Banding will be a more significant player vs the more widespread QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Very curious as to the next run. I don't think it will be west like before. Nice avatar If it really is convective issues it may not correct for awhile...usually doesn't until the convection fires and it realizes a mega low isn't about to runaway out there. Then again I'm not convinced that's what happened either (feedback) Regardless if it pushes the .5 to Union College....it's noteworthy. If it snaps towards all the others...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If it really is convective issues it may not correct for awhile...usually doesn't until the convection fires and it realizes a mega low isn't about to runaway out there. Then again I'm not convinced that's what happened either (feedback) Regardless if it pushes the .5 to Union College....it's noteworthy. If it snaps towards all the others...... Union College in the Albany area of NY State? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GYX has foothills at 3-5", and the midcoast steps 4-8"/6-10"/8-12" as one heads from Bath to Belfast. CAR calling for 12-16" for coastal Wash. These are 1st estimates and will probably change with tomorrow's forecasts (but in which direction?) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 BOX map pic.twitter.com/6yAw0uY9fy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Union College in the Albany area of NY State? Yep! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 That's critical, though. Even the slightest tic east -- again, gradient is tight -- and some of the existing warnings seem overdone. If -- and only if -- the trend continues, then two things happen: - the warnings will expand and there'll be a much greater impact - the GFS will deserve credit for the scoop on this one, because it sniffed it out at 18z yesterday while most other models took until 12z runs today to head in the same direction. Otherwise, the GFS is the "left" goalpost still and reality is somewhere between there and the Euro (with extra weight still on the Euro because it is the Euro). Yup, your right. With the gradient depicted this is still a wicked high stakes forecast. A tick east could be 12 down to 4 or 6 inches. Either way the gradient will be epic...... Somewhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Sharper troff again on the 18z GFS then 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Sharper troff again on the 18z GFS then 12z I don't see where they're talking about feedback unless it's at 15 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 but my neighbors in Foster are 6-10, where's Cory? RIIIIIIIIIGHT HEEERE! You don't think I've been watching every run and reading every post with this one? I said 3 days ago This could be our Foot storm cause I believe EVERY Low that passes ots has a chance to do what this looks like it is going to do. If this trends right..... oh baby....... None of us will be wrong about mentioning The Holy Grail Stinger...... we will have just been off by a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS does not appear shy this run either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Slightly west again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 He's west thru 24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 ORH-BOS crushed. Keep James out of the garage with the car on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Smack dab on the bm at 30 hours. What a huge hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Warning back to NY state border. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Maine is obliterated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Smack dab on the bm at 30 hours. What a huge hit! Warnings back to the mtns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 So is the gfs suffering from feedback or is it merely a real process that will take place? Gfs was awful yesterday in being too Far East....is it too far west? What's your vote? I think there is feedback starting around 12-15h I'm just not convinced it's having a huge impact on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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