DomNH Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like about 40/70 is going to be the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Check out the Sim Radar from 21z Sat - 6z Sun. That is one epic band that just sits over EMA and the Cape for about 6-9 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Check out the Sim Radar from 21z Sat - 6z Sun. That is one epic band that just sits over EMA and the Cape for about 6-9 hours. Do you have a link for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Check out the Sim Radar from 21z Sat - 6z Sun. That is one epic band that just sits over EMA and the Cape for about 6-9 hours. I'm thinking 12+ in this area is becoming more likely with each piece of guidance that is run. Don't want to get too far ahead though. It has that potential though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I hate seeing Messenger making jubulant posts to the tune of "its a crushing blow"...means it didn't shift enough. lol, You want to hear its taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro ens were a bit west of op I read? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NAM 12Z run gave me about 0.25. This run is kissing me with 0.75. Loving the trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think so. This is a ferocious storm and nobody here has any clue it's coming as it's such short lead. I've been telling people for the last few hours, many have plans to travel all over SE MA later Saturday having no clue it's coming. NAM is really a monster hit down here in terms of overall impact. Winds are really nasty. Nightmare of a forecast, with one big event ongoing with a watch getting lost in that shuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well this won't suck. Just insane dynamics over SE MA/ Cape/ Islands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I hate seeing Messenger making jubulant posts to the tune of "its a crushing blow"...means it didn't shift enough. I think you're fighting a losing battle on this one, there's a pretty epic "dry" slot between the two main bands of moisture and then the subsidence for death zone NW of this thing. Even if it scooted by me, it doesn't make you...but you should be able to look SE and watch the heavy snow roll in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 lol, You want to hear its taint I don't have to look at the run....just use posters' locale and tonality as a guage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think you're fighting a losing battle on this one, there's a pretty epic "dry" slot between the two main bands of moisture and then the subsidence for death zone NW of this thing. Even if it scooted by me, it doesn't make you...but you should be able to look SE and watch the heavy snow roll in. I expect to get 1/21ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm noticing the dry, weak members of the SREF suite are all way off in IN and OH. They are likely biasing the mean QPF too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Go have at it SE/BOS/SE NH/Coastal Maine peeps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NAM 12Z run gave me about 0.25. This run is kissing me with 0.75. Loving the trend! Bottom line, though, is that we need just a TINY bit more to feel "secure" on this one. I realize it's for, like, tomorrow, but that gradient is brutal and a slight easterly tic is practically a reset button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 QPF gradient on the NAM is awesome from a purely interesting-factor standpoint. Not even .25'' here but 2'' on the outer Cape. That's crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm noticing the dry, weak members of the SREF suite are all way off in IN and OH. They are likely biasing the mean QPF too low. This is probably a good sign that more energy from the north is phasing into the main shortwave...the less it gets isolated from the northern flow, the better chance it has of hitting eastern SNE hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Nightmare of a forecast, with one big event ongoing with a watch getting lost in that shuffle. This run of the NAM is 15-30" on the Cape. It has totals of almost 3" near ACK. Ray...my confidence is pretty high but not absolute. Yesterdays system moved so much inside of 24 I won't believe the west move is done until the GFS starts coming to consensus. Note on this run we started to lose that extension west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 18z NAM is a monster, 2.25-2.50" of QPF with a 972mb low east of CHH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It seems to me the NAM has been running behind on trends so far with this storm. I mean recall that the 6z run basically had us smoking cirrus and now we just get kissed by a very compact CCB for a few hours before it heads onward. I'm thinking ORH is probably getting kissed by the CCB once it comes verification time, and BOS gets more into the meat of that CCB based on trends in global guidance. Just my take based on how all the latest runs have been moving around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This run of the NAM is 15-30" on the Cape. It has totals of almost 3" near ACK. Ray...my confidence is pretty high but not absolute. Yesterdays system moved so much inside of 24 I won't believe the west move is done until the GFS starts coming to consensus. Note on this run we started to lose that extension west. I think this one is your's. Enjoy...nice refresher, anyway back this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 These are the best when each run of each model just keep coming west right up until the end .. And still keep everyone all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I know how much you guys love weenie snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think this one is your's. Enjoy...nice refresher, anyway back this way. It's moved it's max to roughly where the 12z Euro was. So it's premature to say this is a trend west as much as it is the models coming to consensus. The RGEM should tick west...and for me to be confident here the GFS east or same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 18z NAM is a monster, 2.25-2.50" of QPF with a 972mb low east of CHH. Good for you, bro. Enjoy it. Anyone down to chase? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well, I always hear how deformation is laways west of where the NAM places it.....hopefully I'm Albany this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I expect to get 1/21ed. I wouldn't sweat whatever the Nam shows anyways, Closed off just in time for the cape though this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 wow: every single piece of guidance has trended bigger, towards the GFS sharper more negatively tilted trough and closer track of the nuke trend is hugely our friend here fly in the ointment is trailing shortwave energy shooting under the trough that may tug this nuke further east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NAM is an absolute bomb, 972mb low east of CHH. 2.25-2.50" of QPF max over Cape Cod and Nantucket with a 3.00" QPF bomb just south of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Winds should really get going as that deepens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.