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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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I think so.  This is a ferocious storm and nobody here has any clue it's coming as it's such short lead.  I've been telling people for the last few hours, many have plans to travel all over SE MA later Saturday having no clue it's coming.

 

NAM is really a monster hit down here in terms of overall impact.  Winds are really nasty.

 

Nightmare of a forecast, with one big event ongoing with a watch getting lost in that shuffle.

 

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I hate seeing Messenger making jubulant posts to the tune of "its a crushing blow"...means it didn't shift enough.

 

I think you're fighting a losing battle on this one, there's a pretty epic "dry" slot between the two main bands of moisture and then the subsidence for death zone NW of this thing.    Even if it scooted by me, it doesn't make you...but you should be able to look SE and watch the heavy snow roll in.

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I think you're fighting a losing battle on this one, there's a pretty epic "dry" slot between the two main bands of moisture and then the subsidence for death zone NW of this thing.    Even if it scooted by me, it doesn't make you...but you should be able to look SE and watch the heavy snow roll in.

I expect to  get 1/21ed.

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NAM 12Z run gave me about 0.25.  This run is kissing me with 0.75.  Loving the trend!

 

Bottom line, though, is that we need just a TINY bit more to feel "secure" on this one. I realize it's for, like, tomorrow, but that gradient is brutal and a slight easterly tic is practically a reset button.

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I'm noticing the dry, weak members of the SREF suite are all way off in IN and OH.  They are likely biasing the mean QPF too low.

 

 

This is probably a good sign that more energy from the north is phasing into the main shortwave...the less it gets isolated from the northern flow, the better chance it has of hitting eastern SNE hard.

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Nightmare of a forecast, with one big event ongoing with a watch getting lost in that shuffle.

 

 

This run of the NAM is 15-30" on the Cape.  It has totals of almost 3" near ACK.

 

Ray...my confidence is pretty high but not absolute.  Yesterdays system moved so much inside of 24 I won't believe the west move is done until the GFS starts coming to consensus.

 

Note on this run we started to lose that extension west.

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It seems to me the NAM has been running behind on trends so far with this storm. I mean recall that the 6z run basically had us smoking cirrus and now we just get kissed by a very compact CCB for a few hours before it heads onward. I'm thinking ORH is probably getting kissed by the CCB once it comes verification time, and BOS gets more into the meat of that CCB based on trends in global guidance.

 

Just my take based on how all the latest runs have been moving around.

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This run of the NAM is 15-30" on the Cape.  It has totals of almost 3" near ACK.

 

Ray...my confidence is pretty high but not absolute.  Yesterdays system moved so much inside of 24 I won't believe the west move is done until the GFS starts coming to consensus.

 

Note on this run we started to lose that extension west.

I think this one is your's.

 

Enjoy...nice refresher, anyway back this way.

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wow: every single piece of guidance has trended bigger, towards the GFS

sharper more negatively tilted trough and closer track of the nuke

 

trend is hugely our friend here

 

fly in the ointment is trailing shortwave energy shooting under the trough that may tug this nuke further east...

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