HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Any good analogs showing up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MainePhotog Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Would not take much of another west shift to push up past .75"+ So, I may be in the .75" right now? I know the news outlets were saying the midcoast could get a good snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 So, I may be in the .75" right now? I know the news outlets were saying the midcoast could get a good snow. Almost right on top of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 He's even rounding up on the advisory amounts. 3" is advisory for BOX, over half the zone.No I really did think 2-4 was an advisory in SNE . Honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 BOX already has them, they've been hidden by the wind advisory on the map. I thank you - Zeus gave me a good hard spanking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 So, I may be in the .75" right now? I know the news outlets were saying the midcoast could get a good snow. We are on the edge you probably closer then me but i don't have exact qpf numbers just the shading, But the closer you are to the next shade generally your pretty close to the next .25" increment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I thank you - Zeus gave me a good hard spankingHe is kinkyThe 4PM BOX updates should be interesting. Warnings for parts of the SE then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I thank you - Zeus gave me a good hard spanking I have a reputation to uphold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 No I really did think 2-4 was an advisory in SNE . Honestly Well it usually is because 2-4" often will mean >50% of the area can break 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 He is kinky The 4PM BOX updates should be interesting. Warnings for parts of the SE then? I think folks will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I thank you - Zeus gave me a good hard spanking lol, Keeping everyone in single file Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well it usually is because 2-4" often will mean >50% of the area can break 3". Plus advisories have more leeway with regard to timing (i.e. rush hour) and impacts of less than criteria snowfall amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think folks will be happy. I think some will be shocked going back to back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Boston looks pretty good right now on the ensemble of all guidance...about a 10 mile shift west would make me feel better about 6"+ there, but I def think they have a higher than 50/50 shot at >6" right now. It is probably a good thing that the dregs of the models are the crappiest solutions and the powerhouses of guidance is giving more robust solutions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 He's even rounding up on the advisory amounts. 3" is advisory for BOX, over half the zone.Why do we get advisories sometimes for less but sometimes not at all. I miss travelers advisories, you need them back, would have handled this morning perfectly. That being said CT doesn’t end in HFD and Box has parts of it in solid advisory 4-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Boston looks pretty good right now on the ensemble of all guidance...about a 10 mile shift west would make me feel better about 6"+ there, but I def think they have a higher than 50/50 shot at >6" right now. It is probably a good thing that the dregs of the models are the crappiest solutions and the powerhouses of guidance is giving more robust solutions. Portland on the edge too. We have a forecast of like 5.8" there. Way too close to a warning for comfort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Boston looks pretty good right now on the ensemble of all guidance...about a 10 mile shift west would make me feel better about 6"+ there, but I def think they have a higher than 50/50 shot at >6" right now. It is probably a good thing that the dregs of the models are the crappiest solutions and the powerhouses of guidance is giving more robust solutions. Speaking of ensembles, GFS ens look pretty bullish for Bos metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Why do we get advisories sometimes for less but sometimes not at all. I miss travelers advisories, you need them back, would have handled this morning perfectly. That being said CT doesn’t end in HFD and Box has parts of it in solid advisory 4-6 Generally speaking it has to do with timing. Morning/evening commutes and holidays are big ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Why do we get advisories sometimes for less but sometimes not at all. I miss travelers advisories, you need them back, would have handled this morning perfectly. That being said CT doesn’t end in HFD and Box has parts of it in solid advisory 4-6 If there's any sleet or especially freezing rain involved, its basically an automatic advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If there's any sleet or especially freezing rain involved, its basically an automatic advisory. Right, forgot about the mix. Any amount of ZR is an advisory, so any amount of snow and ZR will also get you a winter weather advisory for the combination. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Right, forgot about the mix. Any amount of ZR is an advisory, so any amount of snow and ZR will also get you a winter weather advisory for the combination. What if it's a tree top icing only? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 is there any possibility that the GFS could just straight up verify and that all this combining and blending and other jazz is just wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What if it's a tree top icing only? Ice accumulation only matters on ground surfaces until you start doing tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 is there any possibility that the GFS could just straight up verify and that all this combining and blending and other jazz is just wrong? Is this a rhetorical question... or just rambling aloud? My only quibble is maybe too much QPF well away from the center. But there is support or its solution in the eastern half of Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 is there any possibility that the GFS could just straight up verify and that all this combining and blending and other jazz is just wrong?NoEuro/GFS 70/30 Shaken, not stirred Goalposts are shrinking though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Another step W on the SREFs. 1" line now just W of the Canal up to Gloucester up to Cool Spruce land. 0.5" line CT/RI border up thru IZG and W ME. 0.25" line CT/NY border up to VT/NH border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Also MSL tucked a little closer to BM maybe 20mi outside it. Stronger too by 4mb. 984mb as it passes by BM. 972mb low crashing into NS, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 comparing H5 EC vs. GFS trying to identify mechanisms for slightly different tracks... difference really starts to manifest at hour 24 (12z Sat) when shortwave rounding base of trough on GFS is significantly stronger and and by hour 27 trough tilts more negatively on GFS vs. EC any other differences people identify that we can follow for verifications as we go through the evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 comparing H5 EC vs. GFS trying to identify mechanisms for slightly different tracks... difference really starts to manifest at hour 24 (12z Sat) when shortwave rounding base of trough on GFS is significantly stronger and and by hour 27 trough tilts more negatively on GFS vs. EC any other differences people identify that we can follow for verifications as we go through the evening? Not sure there's really much to follow next 6-10 hours. Kind of a nice lull right now. Imagine back to back monster storms? Haven't had this in ages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Not sure there's really much to follow next 6-10 hours. Kind of a nice lull right now. Imagine back to back monster storms? Haven't had this in ages. Yeah I should have been clearer... looking through, no real differences manifest before 24h, at least at h5, but was wondering if I'm missing something else we could sniff out ala the model diagnostic disco with SLP few mb deeper than progged on all models. You and further southeast sitting real pretty on this one (finally)... lots of support from the big league models that you're in warning territory, and wouldn't be surprised if... well, I'm too superstitious. As Fella said, we're all gonna be sneaking peeks under the Valentine's day dinner table to check the 0z suite... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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