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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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So, I may be in the .75" right now? I know the news outlets were saying the midcoast could get a good snow.

 

We are on the edge you probably closer then me but i don't have exact qpf numbers just the shading, But the closer you are to the next shade generally your pretty close to the next .25" increment

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Boston looks pretty good right now on the ensemble of all guidance...about a 10 mile shift west would make me feel better about 6"+ there, but I def think they have a higher than 50/50 shot at >6" right now. It is probably a good thing that the dregs of the models are the crappiest solutions and the powerhouses of guidance is giving more robust solutions.

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He's even rounding up on the advisory amounts. 3" is advisory for BOX, over half the zone.

Why do we get advisories sometimes for less but sometimes not at all. I miss travelers advisories, you need them back, would have handled this morning perfectly. That being said CT doesn’t end in HFD and Box has parts of it in solid advisory 4-6
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Boston looks pretty good right now on the ensemble of all guidance...about a 10 mile shift west would make me feel better about 6"+ there, but I def think they have a higher than 50/50 shot at >6" right now. It is probably a good thing that the dregs of the models are the crappiest solutions and the powerhouses of guidance is giving more robust solutions.

 

Portland on the edge too. We have a forecast of like 5.8" there. Way too close to a warning for comfort.

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Boston looks pretty good right now on the ensemble of all guidance...about a 10 mile shift west would make me feel better about 6"+ there, but I def think they have a higher than 50/50 shot at >6" right now. It is probably a good thing that the dregs of the models are the crappiest solutions and the powerhouses of guidance is giving more robust solutions.

Speaking of ensembles, GFS ens look pretty bullish for Bos metro

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Why do we get advisories sometimes for less but sometimes not at all. I miss travelers advisories, you need them back, would have handled this morning perfectly. That being said CT doesn’t end in HFD and Box has parts of it in solid advisory 4-6

 

Generally speaking it has to do with timing. Morning/evening commutes and holidays are big ones.

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Why do we get advisories sometimes for less but sometimes not at all. I miss travelers advisories, you need them back, would have handled this morning perfectly. That being said CT doesn’t end in HFD and Box has parts of it in solid advisory 4-6

 

 

If there's any sleet or especially freezing rain involved, its basically an automatic advisory.

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is there any possibility that the GFS could just straight up verify and that all this combining and blending and other jazz is just wrong?

Is this a rhetorical question... or just rambling aloud?

 

My only quibble is maybe too much QPF well away from the center.  But there is support or its solution in the eastern half of Mass.

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comparing H5 EC vs. GFS trying to identify mechanisms for slightly different tracks...

 

difference really starts to manifest at hour 24 (12z Sat) when shortwave rounding base of trough on GFS is significantly stronger and and by hour 27 trough tilts more negatively on GFS vs. EC

 

 any other differences people identify that we can follow for verifications as we go through the evening?

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comparing H5 EC vs. GFS trying to identify mechanisms for slightly different tracks...

 

difference really starts to manifest at hour 24 (12z Sat) when shortwave rounding base of trough on GFS is significantly stronger and and by hour 27 trough tilts more negatively on GFS vs. EC

 

 any other differences people identify that we can follow for verifications as we go through the evening?

 

Not sure there's really much to follow next 6-10 hours.  Kind of a nice lull right now.

 

Imagine back to back monster storms?  Haven't had this in ages.

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Not sure there's really much to follow next 6-10 hours.  Kind of a nice lull right now.

 

Imagine back to back monster storms?  Haven't had this in ages.

 

Yeah I should have been clearer... looking through, no real differences manifest before 24h, at least at h5, but was wondering if I'm missing something else we could sniff out ala the model diagnostic disco with SLP few mb deeper than progged on all models.

 

You and further southeast sitting real pretty on this one (finally)... lots of support from the big league models that you're in warning territory, and wouldn't be surprised if... well, I'm too superstitious.

 

As Fella said, we're all gonna be sneaking peeks under the Valentine's day dinner table to check the 0z suite...

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