Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ukie dug for oil. Coastal low develops off the Carolinas and heads NE from there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Euro maybe a tad weaker than 00z, but looked good for SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah Euro is still a tease...light snow for everyone, but mostly like an inch or two...maybe adivsory for far SE MA/Cape? Still have about 24 hours to realistically nudge this one further NW into >4" territory before the models will be reliable enough to say it is what it is. The GFS suite was nice looking but the foreign models were all a tease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GGEM and Ukie sounded like big hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Ukie is a whiff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 GGEM and Ukie sounded like big hits No, they weren't. Ukie was just a few snow showers...GGEM was maybe an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Question, I am driving to visit my sister in Milford (Northeastern Pennsyvania) on friday evening around 4pm, will I avoid this snow by leaving at that time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 fwiw which isvery little , the 09z SREFs weren't all that bad. 0.5" line at the outer cape right now. 15z SREFs took a huge jump west. 0.5" line all the way back to PVD/BOS now. About a 30mile shift ~990mb low as it rounds the BM about 30mi S & E of it. ~980mb low into eastern tip of Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 15z SREFs took a huge jump west. 0.5" line all the way back to PVD/BOS now. About a 30mile shift ~990mb low as it rounds the BM about 30mi S & E of it. ~980mb low into eastern tip of Nova Scotia. Nice, curious too see if euro ensembles indicate anything that this could come west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 I wish the SREFs were reliable at 48 hours...that would be a nice signal if they were. Euro ensembles look almost exactly like the OP...they might bring the 0.1" qpf line a bit west though suggesting a few better hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If you want to use the 15Z SREFs go into the plumes and remove every ARW member...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z NAM clips eastern areas than goes crazy in the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z NAM clips eastern areas than goes crazy in the GOM. Yeah, just noticing how close this is ... and apparently, getting/gotten closer. Worth watching imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 If Taunton puts out any type of advisory or warning for MBY I'm going to the rafters with Powderfreaks noose. This one looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
subdude Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 lol @ 18-24" I'll take my t-1" and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...FAVOR ECMWF SOLUTION WITH THE BEST INITIALIZATION OF SURFACE LOWSAND ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL ENERGY OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA AND MINNESOTA.SO WILL CONSIDER A STORM TRACK FOR THE PERIOD IN PROXIMITY TO THEBENCHMARK.BUT BEFORE GOING ANY FURTHER...MUST NOTE AN UNDERLYING LEVEL OFUNCERTAINTY PER POTENTIAL PHASING/EVOLUTION CHALLENGES WITHIN MODELSOLUTIONS OF PACIFIC-ORIGIN ENERGY. NOTHING IS EVER PERFECT. WHATAPPEARS TO KEEP THE LOW FURTHER S/E OFFSHORE IS PERHAPS THE STRONGERINFLUENCE OF ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HUDSON BAY...AND DRIERAIR/SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE PRESENT STORM. BUT THE STRENGTH OF SUCHFEATURES AGAINST THE INTENSITY OF THE STORM CAN LEAD TO WOBBLES INLOW POSITIONING. CAN NOT RULE OUT A CLOSER PASSAGE TO THE SHORE...OR PERHAPS EVEN FURTHER AWAY.NEVERTHELESS...THE GENERAL TREND IS FOR THE LOW TO BOMB TOWARDS NOVASCOTIA AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH UNDERGOES NEGATIVE TILTING ENHANCINGCYCLOGENESIS. WHILE OVERRUNNING OF LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED SATURDAYTHE MAIN FOCUS IS SATURDAY NIGHT WITH THE REARWARD COMMA-HEAD ANDMESOSCALE SNOW BANDING IN FAVORABLE REGIONS OF MID-LEVEL FORCING/DEFORMATION POTENTIALLY BENEATH THE RRQ OF THE UPPER-LEVEL JET...PERHAPS JET-COUPLING WITH THE LFQ OF THE ATTENDANT JET-STREAK TO THESTORM. IN ALL...DEEP-LAYER ASCENT THROUGH THE SNOW-GROWTH REGIONEXPECTED REAR-WARD WITHIN THE COMMA-HEAD OF THE STORM...ESPECIALLYIF LAPSE RATES STEEPEN TO NEARLY DRY-ADIABATIC ABOVE H7 AS THE ECMWFSUGGESTS.STRONG NW WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR WITH N/NE OVER THE WATERS...THUSA COASTAL-FRONT SETUP ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE. H85 TEMPS COOLING TO -10CCOULD YIELD OCEAN-EFFECT PROCESSES. THESE TWO POSSIBILITIES ONLYENHANCE POTENTIAL OUTCOMES REARWARD OF THE STORM. COUPLED WITH THEGENERAL DISCUSSION OF OUTCOMES ABOVE...AND THERE IS THE DISTINCTPOSSIBILITY OF A SIGNIFICANT PLOWABLE SNOW AND WINTER WEATHERHEADLINES FOR S/E COASTAL COMMUNITIES OF SNE /ESPECIALLY FOR THECAPE AND ISLANDS/. STILL NEED TO IRON OUT DETAILS AND WAIT FORBETTER MODEL CONSENSUS...SO WON/T GO INTO DISCUSSION WITH SNOWTOTALS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z GFS is another solid hit for SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 And woah, bombs south of the cape. This took us by surprise, but we are getting pretty close in, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BRSno Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS makes up for tonight's bust in easten MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Wish there were more spacing and "atmospheric recovery" between our current storm and the 2/15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Being in the GFS bullseye at 60 hours is like winning spin the bottle with Rosie O'Donnell.. I'm "crushed" on this run..yeah me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Being in the GFS bullseye at 60 hours is like winning spin the bottle with Rosie O'Donnell.. I'm "crushed" on this run..yeah me. Come on...you're crushed at 57 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sort of went the Ukie southern route. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Did the Ukie go sub 980 in the GOM? If this verified, we aren't going to have an atmosphere left with all the holes being ripped in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 WOw, close to a tasty solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Separation of the s/w's is what is allowing this thing to go to town. There was also some subtle better ridging out W. Hopefully now that we are within 3 days we should see some continuity on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lol at my buddy in Calais ME on that run. Just another two feet for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Did the Ukie go sub 980 in the GOM? If this verified, we aren't going to have an atmosphere left with all the holes being ripped in it. Yes. Looked like ~976 just S of NS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 18z RGEM is going to go postal..994 and ready to erupt on the Carolina coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 All bets are off if we can close off 700/850 underneath LI. 18z GFS manages to do this Would be even better if we can pinch off 500mb too. Solid solution on the 18z GFS E of ORH. Would be advisory level w/ warning levels in SE MA & Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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