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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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Given track how much more wiggle room (amplification) is there reasonable potential for .

I.e 25 miles nw ?

 

I'd say 50 miles but it probably increases as you go north because it's going to attempt to hook.

 

What we learned yesterday is the models aren't done moving even when the storm is firing.  This time it's a quick hitter....but my guess is we'll see 50 mile shifts in the last 18 hours.  Just a guess (50 mile shift in the.5 line)

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These hook-and-latter events are how e MA specials are born.,,,Feb '69 did that.

 

Feb '69 was more of a retro-storm...though I guess technically it did "hook and ladder"...it was just way way eastward and then got sucked back NW and then back SW.

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This reminds me of Boxing Day storm where GFS caught on first. Obviously different set up and all snow for this., but same premise

lol be careful they will use it against you. Euro definitely has a much nicer look, don't know how much more west it can come though without causing initial precip type problem on the outer cape
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One more bump west at 00z seems likely based on how it's gone from flurries to advisory HFD east

 

 

It had 1-2" even into CT for several runs. The biggest differences have occurred out east where a legit CCB is trying to back in. This run also doesn't have advisory snows for HFD unless they got like 20 to 1 ratios...its about 0.15" qpf there...maybe 0.20 if you stretch it on the east side.

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It had 1-2" even into CT for several runs. The biggest differences have occurred out east where a legit CCB is trying to back in. This run also doesn't have advisory snows for HFD unless they got like 20 to 1 ratios...its about 0.15" qpf there...maybe 0.20 if you stretch it on the east side.

I thought 2-4 was advisory in SNE? That's what it has basically
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Me-thinks it's time BOX and GYX hoisted some watches for this tasty little surprise :snowing:

 

It's about time you did your homework.

 

BOX has had winter storm watches up all day.

 

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA1105 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014...ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MAINLYEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAZ007-013-015>024-RIZ001>007-142315-/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0006.140215T1300Z-140216T1000Z/EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT1105 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNINGTHROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...* LOCATIONS...MOST OF RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS  ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS INCLUDES CAPE COD  AND THE ISLANDS.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY EXCEED 6 INCHES.* TIMING...SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING  CONDITIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE.* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.
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I thought 2-4 was advisory in SNE? That's what it has basically

 

I wouldn't forecast 2-4 on 0,15" of qpf unless I knew ratios were a lock to be high...but we're getting into your semantics games again. It doesn't matter at this point since the final solution may still change a bit.

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I wouldn't forecast 2-4 on 0,15" of qpf unless I knew ratios were a lock to be high...but we're getting into your semantics games again. It doesn't matter at this point since the final solution may still change a bit.

 

He's even rounding up on the advisory amounts. 3" is advisory for BOX, over half the zone.

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Model Diagnostic Disco updated for 12z EC... continues theme preferring deeper system... how this translates to sharper trough / better tilt / track we'll see, but agree with Messenger that this may continue to shift in the next 18 hours...

 

 

MID-SOUTH TO ATLANTIC CANADA SYSTEM FRI-SUN
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

ACROSS MISSOURI -- PER COORDINATION WITH OUR SHORT RANGE FORECAST
DESK -- OUTSIDE OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET SOLUTIONS, ALL THE
AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WAS A FEW HPA TOO WEAK WITH THEIR SURFACE LOW
AT 12Z THIS MORNING, WHICH IS LIKELY AN ISSUE THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH
THE FIRST DAY OF THEIR FORECASTS. WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWS
CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST
WHICH STRENGTHEN ITS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD LEAD TO
SOME EXCESSIVE PROGRESSION, THE INITIALIZATION ISSUES IN THE
GUIDANCE MAKE THE STRONG GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS APPEAR MOST
PLAUSIBLE. PLUS, WITH THE CYCLONE PATH NEARING THE GULF STREAM
SATURDAY, A STRONGER SOLUTION STANDS A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCE
OF VERIFYING. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A STRONGER SOLUTION CLOSE TO
THE 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE BASED ON INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND POSSIBLE GULF STREAM
INTERACTION.

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