Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Given track how much more wiggle room (amplification) is there reasonable potential for . I.e 25 miles nw ? I'd say 50 miles but it probably increases as you go north because it's going to attempt to hook. What we learned yesterday is the models aren't done moving even when the storm is firing. This time it's a quick hitter....but my guess is we'll see 50 mile shifts in the last 18 hours. Just a guess (50 mile shift in the.5 line) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Careful you're going to fire up the NNE weenies. LOL Not comparing at all.....just referenced a very prominent example because it was the first to come to mind... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 These hook-and-latter events are how e MA specials are born.,,,Feb '69 did that. Feb '69 was more of a retro-storm...though I guess technically it did "hook and ladder"...it was just way way eastward and then got sucked back NW and then back SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This reminds me of Boxing Day storm where GFS caught on first. Obviously different set up and all snow for this., but same premiselol be careful they will use it against you. Euro definitely has a much nicer look, don't know how much more west it can come though without causing initial precip type problem on the outer cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 You can see how the GFS is displacing the max frontogenesis (yellow) well NW of the H7 front (pink). I don't like it that far west, but it's close. GFS.jpg Thanks. That looks great, but I was more interested in the EURO. That Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 lol be careful they will use it against you. Euro definitely has a much nicer look, don't know how much more west it can come though without causing initial precip type problem on the outer cape One more bump west at 00z seems likely based on how it's gone from flurries to advisory HFD east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Feb '69 was more of a retro-storm...though I guess technically it did "hook and ladder"...it was just way way eastward and then got sucked back NW and then back SW. I wasn't using it as an analog. Probably irresponsible to have mentioned it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Thanks. That looks great, but I was more interested in the EURO. That At least the 00z run was shifted more towards the PVD-BOS corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Heavy snow reported in Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 At least the 00z run was shifted more towards the PVD-BOS corridor. Hoping to catch that outter deform band, but haven't had much luck with regard to those of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 One more bump west at 00z seems likely based on how it's gone from flurries to advisory HFD east Be mindful of how much things moved inside of 24 hours. I'd say the parts are still moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 These hook-and-latter events are how e MA specials are born.,,,Feb '69 did that.I won't hold this against you. I am not that kind of guy. Lol Certainly crushes Maine head on, a little blocking and we would be talking in historical terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Mets.. Ideas on start time Tomorriw please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 One more bump west at 00z seems likely based on how it's gone from flurries to advisory HFD east It had 1-2" even into CT for several runs. The biggest differences have occurred out east where a legit CCB is trying to back in. This run also doesn't have advisory snows for HFD unless they got like 20 to 1 ratios...its about 0.15" qpf there...maybe 0.20 if you stretch it on the east side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Be mindful of how much things moved inside of 24 hours. I'd say the parts are still movingI thought the atmosphere was static myself. Have to give credence to Ens lock in step here. Nowcast time again, this puppy is amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toller65 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Me-thinks it's time BOX and GYX hoisted some watches for this tasty little surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It had 1-2" even into CT for several runs. The biggest differences have occurred out east where a legit CCB is trying to back in. This run also doesn't have advisory snows for HFD unless they got like 20 to 1 ratios...its about 0.15" qpf there...maybe 0.20 if you stretch it on the east side.I thought 2-4 was advisory in SNE? That's what it has basically Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Me-thinks it's time BOX and GYX hoisted some watches for this tasty little surprise It's about time you did your homework. BOX has had winter storm watches up all day. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA1105 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014...ANOTHER WINTER STORM MAY BRING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TO MAINLYEASTERN NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MAZ007-013-015>024-RIZ001>007-142315-/O.CON.KBOX.WS.A.0006.140215T1300Z-140216T1000Z/EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GLOUCESTER...FOXBORO...NORWOOD...BOSTON...QUINCY...TAUNTON...BROCKTON...PLYMOUTH...FALL RIVER...NEW BEDFORD...MATTAPOISETT...CHATHAM...FALMOUTH...PROVINCETOWN...VINEYARD HAVEN...NANTUCKET...FOSTER...SMITHFIELD...PROVIDENCE...WEST GREENWICH...WARWICK...BRISTOL...NARRAGANSETT...WESTERLY...NEWPORT1105 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY MORNINGTHROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT...* LOCATIONS...MOST OF RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. THIS INCLUDES CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION MAY EXCEED 6 INCHES.* TIMING...SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.* TEMPERATURES...AROUND 30.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL RESULT IN HAZARDOUS DRIVING CONDITIONS. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE.* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.* VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Me-thinks it's time BOX and GYX hoisted some watches for this tasty little surprise BOX already has them, they've been hidden by the wind advisory on the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Careful you're going to fire up the NNE weenies. Moving to quick for the Bob O'rill storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I won't hold this against you. I am not that kind of guy. Lol Certainly crushes Maine head on, a little blocking and we would be talking in historical terms. I what you're thinking after I called you out on the 12/9/05 reference. Touche. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Heavy snow reported in Indy. Over performing here in central Indiana with this one, at least in my hood. Just shy of 2" in about two and a half hours in Lafayette. Hopefully the same translates east for you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Feb '69 was more of a retro-storm...though I guess technically it did "hook and ladder"...it was just way way eastward and then got sucked back NW and then back SW. I use this one as my avatar from time to time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Does anyone use the twisterdata.com maps for the GFS and NAM? Can anyone tell me if the 10m surface winds are sustained or gusts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I use this one as my avatar from time to time Feb69.jpg PWM got screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 I thought 2-4 was advisory in SNE? That's what it has basically I wouldn't forecast 2-4 on 0,15" of qpf unless I knew ratios were a lock to be high...but we're getting into your semantics games again. It doesn't matter at this point since the final solution may still change a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 PWM got screwed. lol, Well, Good ole Bob had forecast snow flurries for the state much to his shagrinn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I wouldn't forecast 2-4 on 0,15" of qpf unless I knew ratios were a lock to be high...but we're getting into your semantics games again. It doesn't matter at this point since the final solution may still change a bit. He's even rounding up on the advisory amounts. 3" is advisory for BOX, over half the zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Over performing here in central Indiana with this one, at least in my hood. Just shy of 2" in about two and a half hours in Lafayette. Hopefully the same translates east for you guys. Sound good! Good luck to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Model Diagnostic Disco updated for 12z EC... continues theme preferring deeper system... how this translates to sharper trough / better tilt / track we'll see, but agree with Messenger that this may continue to shift in the next 18 hours... MID-SOUTH TO ATLANTIC CANADA SYSTEM FRI-SUN~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISECONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGEACROSS MISSOURI -- PER COORDINATION WITH OUR SHORT RANGE FORECASTDESK -- OUTSIDE OF THE 12Z ECMWF AND 12Z UKMET SOLUTIONS, ALL THEAVAILABLE GUIDANCE WAS A FEW HPA TOO WEAK WITH THEIR SURFACE LOWAT 12Z THIS MORNING, WHICH IS LIKELY AN ISSUE THAT FOLLOWS THROUGHTHE FIRST DAY OF THEIR FORECASTS. WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWSCONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COASTWHICH STRENGTHEN ITS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD LEAD TOSOME EXCESSIVE PROGRESSION, THE INITIALIZATION ISSUES IN THEGUIDANCE MAKE THE STRONG GFS/ECMWF/UKMET SOLUTIONS APPEAR MOSTPLAUSIBLE. PLUS, WITH THE CYCLONE PATH NEARING THE GULF STREAMSATURDAY, A STRONGER SOLUTION STANDS A BETTER THAN AVERAGE CHANCEOF VERIFYING. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A STRONGER SOLUTION CLOSE TOTHE 12Z GFS/12Z UKMET/12Z ECMWF COMPROMISE WITH ABOVE AVERAGECONFIDENCE BASED ON INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND POSSIBLE GULF STREAMINTERACTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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