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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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Yeah while I agree Phil and I are in a great spot, there is the potential for a further west track and potential tainting impact for Cape Cod.  However the chances of taint are slim as EURO is southeast of BM, but not by much.  This is a perfect track for us, 12z NMM gives Cape Cod about 2.5"-3.0" of QPF.  About 20-30" verbatim, but again this model is notorious for over forecasting QPF amounts.

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How about SR?

 

 

I don't see there as being huge differences...what's different is the GFS was tossing an extension well west.  Did the Euro do that?  I don't know.

 

0z Euro last night was showing barely advisory for most of eastern MA /warning in Cape at a time when GFS for at least 2 runs (18z, 0z last night) was already showing blizzard conditions in Cape and warning to much of eastern MA, advisory to most of SNE...

 

That's a big difference in my book. And at this point, looks like Euro flinched. Let's hope this translates to reality...

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Thanks, that's all I was asking.  12-15" looking like more and more of a possibility and with more moisture available to the shortwave on water vapor imagery, I'm guessing models are under doing the moisture transport from the GOM.

 

James (and I'll apologize in advance because no doubt I'll call you Josh a few times the next few days)

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for all the QPF Queens and to keep the IMBY junk out of this thread:

 

0.10": Powderfreak down to Mitch in W MA..maybe slightly west of him

0.25": RUM-MHT-Tolland-Old Lyme

0.50": PWM-LWM-Milford, MA-GON

0.75: BHB-offshore-back onshore-GHG-PVD

1.00: BGR-offshore-back onshore-N of PYM to EWB

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Thanks, that's all I was asking.  12-15" looking like more and more of a possibility and with more moisture available to the shortwave on water vapor imagery, I'm guessing models are under doing the moisture transport from the GOM.

 

Check back a page or two for the loop of PWAT across the Atlantic. The last storm really shoved the best moisture well south and east of the region. We won't have enough time between system to draw it back north, but dynamics alone will make this an efficient precip producers with the moisture it does have to work with.

 

In a sentence, I wouldn't worry about QPF for your area, but there is a limit to how high it's going to go.

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10-12" in the 1" QPF area sound about right?

 

There's going to be some ferocious banding and some OE contribution as this thing rips.  Winds gusting to 50 along the coast based on the Euro. 

 

I'd go with a wider range of 8-14 but it's quite likely someone is going to get tattooed under some bands well above that (as modeled right now)

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for all the QPF Queens and to keep the IMBY junk out of this thread:

 

0.10": Powderfreak down to Mitch in W MA..maybe slightly west of him

0.25": RUM-MHT-Tolland-Old Lyme

0.50": PWM-LWM-Milford, MA-GON

0.75: BHB-offshore-back onshore-GHG-PVD

1.00: BGR-offshore-back onshore-N of PYM to EWB

Really busy, but if anyone could tell me where H7 tracks, along with frontogenesis, it would be appreciated.

Thanks.

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