OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 How about SR? I don't see there as being huge differences...what's different is the GFS was tossing an extension well west. Did the Euro do that? I don't know. Not going to be their storm. Being the furthest west ME ski mountain isn't a good thing on this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Absolutely smoked. Well over 1" QPF. What about for Cape Cod, east of HYA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 .50" back that way North/South gradient on the qpf SR up to 135 trails which I think is 100%. This will only make it better. I wonder when Blizzard Watches will go up on the Cape? Warnings right? Inside of 24 hours when they issue them at 4pm? Warranted IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What about for Cape Cod, east of HYA? You're in really good shape. You and Phil should have some real tried and true blizzard conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This reminds me of Boxing Day storm where GFS caught on first. Obviously different set up and all snow for this., but same premise At least we have weekend rule going for us. ! ,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I would expect winter storm warnings will be hoisted later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What about for Cape Cod, east of HYA? Nothing to worry about there. Around 1.25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Colonel Badger Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro looks to be 3-4" here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan11295 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Am guessing Winter Storm Warnings get hoisted for Eastern Essex & Middlesex Counties and SE of there with GFS and EURO support. What kind of Sustained winds are we looking at here? Enough to warrant a Blizzard Watch for far SE Areas/immediate coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Pleased we can track this after the obligatory vday dinner and no work the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Someone who has access to the Euro care to make a crude qpf map from the euro so we don't have all the imby questions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah while I agree Phil and I are in a great spot, there is the potential for a further west track and potential tainting impact for Cape Cod. However the chances of taint are slim as EURO is southeast of BM, but not by much. This is a perfect track for us, 12z NMM gives Cape Cod about 2.5"-3.0" of QPF. About 20-30" verbatim, but again this model is notorious for over forecasting QPF amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Basically warning criteria from ORH eastward...def inside of 495. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 How about SR? I don't see there as being huge differences...what's different is the GFS was tossing an extension well west. Did the Euro do that? I don't know. 0z Euro last night was showing barely advisory for most of eastern MA /warning in Cape at a time when GFS for at least 2 runs (18z, 0z last night) was already showing blizzard conditions in Cape and warning to much of eastern MA, advisory to most of SNE... That's a big difference in my book. And at this point, looks like Euro flinched. Let's hope this translates to reality... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 How far NW does the 0.25" go? VT border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Nothing to worry about there. Around 1.25" Thanks, that's all I was asking. 12-15" looking like more and more of a possibility and with more moisture available to the shortwave on water vapor imagery, I'm guessing models are under doing the moisture transport from the GOM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Thanks, that's all I was asking. 12-15" looking like more and more of a possibility and with more moisture available to the shortwave on water vapor imagery, I'm guessing models are under doing the moisture transport from the GOM. James (and I'll apologize in advance because no doubt I'll call you Josh a few times the next few days) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 for all the QPF Queens and to keep the IMBY junk out of this thread: 0.10": Powderfreak down to Mitch in W MA..maybe slightly west of him 0.25": RUM-MHT-Tolland-Old Lyme 0.50": PWM-LWM-Milford, MA-GON 0.75: BHB-offshore-back onshore-GHG-PVD 1.00: BGR-offshore-back onshore-N of PYM to EWB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Thanks, that's all I was asking. 12-15" looking like more and more of a possibility and with more moisture available to the shortwave on water vapor imagery, I'm guessing models are under doing the moisture transport from the GOM. Check back a page or two for the loop of PWAT across the Atlantic. The last storm really shoved the best moisture well south and east of the region. We won't have enough time between system to draw it back north, but dynamics alone will make this an efficient precip producers with the moisture it does have to work with. In a sentence, I wouldn't worry about QPF for your area, but there is a limit to how high it's going to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Could start as a RASN mix on the Cape, but once those dynamics kick in, it's S+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarverWX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 10-12" in the 1" QPF area sound about right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 10-12" in the 1" QPF area sound about right? There's going to be some ferocious banding and some OE contribution as this thing rips. Winds gusting to 50 along the coast based on the Euro. I'd go with a wider range of 8-14 but it's quite likely someone is going to get tattooed under some bands well above that (as modeled right now) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This run is significanly better up towards my way. E Ma special per the GFS. Rolls down to 972 to our east. Important to note. 23mb dropped as it traverses NE. These hook-and-latter events are how e MA specials are born.,,,Feb '69 did that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The GFS is the only model to really get moderate QPF back to western SNE. Despite the overall trends, I think a solution like the EC is more reasonable. Light QPF for the fringes, and heavy QPF confined to SE sections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Given track how much more wiggle room (amplification) is there reasonable potential for . I.e 25 miles nw ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Water vapor imagery leads to support a more moist system impacting the region. Surface low down to 1002mb over or just west of St. Louis, MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 for all the QPF Queens and to keep the IMBY junk out of this thread: 0.10": Powderfreak down to Mitch in W MA..maybe slightly west of him 0.25": RUM-MHT-Tolland-Old Lyme 0.50": PWM-LWM-Milford, MA-GON 0.75: BHB-offshore-back onshore-GHG-PVD 1.00: BGR-offshore-back onshore-N of PYM to EWB Really busy, but if anyone could tell me where H7 tracks, along with frontogenesis, it would be appreciated. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 These hook-and-latter events are how e MA specials are born.,,,Feb '69 did that. Careful you're going to fire up the NNE weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The GFS is the only model to really get moderate QPF back to western SNE. Despite the overall trends, I think a solution like the EC is more reasonable. Light QPF for the fringes, and heavy QPF confined to SE sections. Yea, I'm afraid of a warmer version of 1/21, but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Really busy, but if anyone could tell me where H7 tracks, along with frontogenesis, it would be appreciated. Thanks. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42862-feb-15-clipperredeveloper/?p=2798540 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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