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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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It all seems to be coming together... 

 

NCEP noted that the other guidance were a bit underdone and missed some potency in their respective initialization.  Well, that would effect a less dive into the TV.

 

Contrasting, the more digging taps the Gulf theta-e, and that transitively leads to it being ripped N to get involved ... 

That could be what HPC was referencing. That potent of a mid level anomaly, which seems to be a tick stronger than what the guidance is simulating, will eventually play a large role in tucking the low west. The RGEM/NAM look unrealistic to me, so I do agree with HPC that the GFS solution seems more plausible than usual, but for different reasons perhaps. 

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Crushes DE

 

How about SR?

 

Settle this debate clearly while it's fresh...

 

GFS has been dead on for 4 cycles... NAM has trended towards it, and now so has Euro.

Nothing has happened yet so we'll see, but GFS so far has led the entire pack with incredible consistency. This late bloomer has legs.

 

I don't see there as being huge differences...what's different is the GFS was tossing an extension well west.  Did the Euro do that?  I don't know.

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