CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS frontogenesis signal is quite robust, I have to say, arcing from ORH to PWM. BHB gets crushed. Very impressive 700-500 fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 All models, and the GFS in particular, have occasionally shown a persistent solution only to be wrong with the outcome. It actually happens fairly frequently. But unless the error impacts a particular region, and especially if the impact isn't significant in terms of sensible weather, most people don't notice. You don't have to go far into the past for an example. For at least 8 cycles leading up to yesterday, the GFS insisted that heavy snow would not make it west of the NY/MA border... or at least not much west of the Hudson River. As it turned out, the heavy snow blasted 100 miles west of there... basically like the ECMWF had shown for 3 days (and the CMC/UK occasonally as well). Not like this ... sorry, this is coming along with a certain uncompromising panache -- this is different. You are siting certain aspects of an overall picture; but this thing is the overall picture, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS frontogenesis signal is quite robust, I have to say, arcing from ORH to PWM. BHB gets crushed. Yeah looked to me like there was a nice fronto signal on it. qpf queens don't like it..but others do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah looked to me like there was a nice fronto signal on it. qpf queens don't like it..but others do From ORH north he said... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 From ORH north he said... Not for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 From ORH north he said... I mean if the GFS is on track, it wouldn't be too far from Tolland (as much as it pains me to say that). The H7 warm front is a little east of where the GFS spits out the best frontogenesis, but it wouldn't be too far away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 From what Ginx posted...RGEM looks like a solid hit E of I-91. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 From what Ginx posted...RGEM looks like a solid hit E of I-91.The RGEM is closer to the NAM, like 3-6 or 4-8 at most down here. GFS is on an island, at least as of this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GEFS match the op fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah looked to me like there was a nice fronto signal on it. qpf queens don't like it..but others do Yep, gets close to you...nobody is disagreeing with you on the GFS. All we are saying, is if it is correct or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 From what Ginx posted...RGEM looks like a solid hit E of I-91. It is also considerably west of it's 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Not like this ... sorry, this is coming along with a certain uncompromising panache -- this is different. You are siting certain aspects of an overall picture; but this thing is the overall picture, too. I just think you are hyper focused on your backyard, which is understandable. The GFS was wrong for 8 runs leading up to yesterday. Wrong in the whole picture, as you say. Too far east at the surface and too flat at 500mb and 300mb. I used QPF on the western periphery as an illustrative example because that's where we see the impact. I think this seems different because it affects you. The run up to yesterday didn't as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Not like this ... sorry, this is coming along with a certain uncompromising panache -- this is different. You are siting certain aspects of an overall picture; but this thing is the overall picture, too. Gfs thought the stinger was into a decent part if sne right up until the event started. It's consistently wrong quite often particularly when it's the most left on track. Doesn't mean it's wrong this time, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I don't think it is I surprised you feel this way... I think I have a chance at the fronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yep, gets close to you...nobody is disagreeing with you on the GFS. All we are saying, is if it is correct or not. You can see how the GFS is displacing the max frontogenesis (yellow) well NW of the H7 front (pink). I don't like it that far west, but it's close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GEFS match the op fwiw. Every member appears to show at least advisory snowfall for all of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Please happen that way... Is there a similar product for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GEFS match the op fwiw. Yeah, that was the case at 00z, too as NCEP noted.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Let's see if this season's NW trend persists! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Please happen that way... Is there a similar product for the Euro? I'm looking at it now, and it looks like the GFS except displaced SE. Put the warm front over CHH and the max frontogenesis over the PVD to just SE of BOS corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 You can see how the GFS is displacing the max frontogenesis (yellow) well NW of the H7 front (pink). I don't like it that far west, but it's close. GFS.jpg Can I get a woody? that gives me one even being a little East, lol. Man the GEFS look pretty similar, is this a charlie Brown Lucy storm though? The Euro Ens were not far off from being nuclear too. wow close in nail biter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 For those wondering, that shading is snow growth zone saturation. Yellow is 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 First guess. Probably not tight enough with the gradient on the western edge and probably not high enough with totals in eastern Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm looking at it now, and it looks like the GFS except displaced SE. Put the warm front over CHH and the max frontogenesis over the PVD to just SE of BOS corridor. Thanks for the graphics and input. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Holy crap, is there any interest in this thing: Ginxy, highways1, khowley4, msg112469, Bowbrewer, Digityman, wxsniss, zoe456, CTWeatherFreak, Me Notu, macriver, I'd rather be skiing, SouthCoastMA, Colonel Badger, MJHUB,RIsnow, Spoons56, JustinWX, butterfish55, Bluefishskip, sfenn1117, Weenie Radar, snoincr, Hoth, JC in CT, qetu89, Bryan, cpick79, HTFD Whaler, Highlander, Aerographer, HinghamBoss, erfus,palaranda, HoarfrostHubb, CarverWX, ((((d-_- ))), coldfront, Matthew Becker, DmFog1187, grithermonster, sbos_wx, pdm44, wkd, CHIPPENSHILL, Whiteminster, Chrisrotary12, ORH_wxman,Cyclone-68, moneypitmike, Hazey, JSWeather, Pick, 22elvis, seahero, Dan, SnowMan, eduggs, Benchmarkbuoy, winterfreak, klw, MaineJayhawk, SnowGoose69, mattb65, Connecticut Appleman,PeabodyFlood, cjp007, esmango, gmb6279, Theo17, Tann1973, CTFarmer, gedolson, kevin1927, EActon, Massshorewx34, giventofly, ariof, TauntonBlizzard2013, Hinode, Patrick-02540, educate,Wx37, marsh, canes&neasters, Yankees29, akba, jm1220, PolarVortex, Boston-winter08, Snowbelt, billman, Tallguy001 Anyway, the ECM did get schooled by the GFS earlier in the season re the N-stream amplitude and timing. So it's not exactly unprecedented. It's just rarer. Having just seen the GFS ensemble individual members, there a more like the operational GFS than like the Euro (in terms of cross model support). Gosh that's a lot of weight. Edit: duh, I just reviewed the 00z -- what a dumb ass; still, rumor has it the 12z is similar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NCEP may have been taken over by James. Fear the Gulf Stream. MID-SOUTH TO ATLANTIC CANADA SYSTEM FRI-SUN~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFSCONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGEACROSS MISSOURI, ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WAS A FEW HPA TOO WEAKWITH THEIR SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS LIKELY AN ISSUE THAT FOLLOWSTHROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF THEIR FORECASTS. WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWSCONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COASTWHICH STRENGTHEN ITS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD LEAD TOSOME EXCESSIVE PROGRESSION, THE INITIALIZATION ISSUES IN THEGUIDANCE MAKE THE STRONG GFS SOLUTION APPEAR MOST PLAUSIBLE.PLUS, WITH THE CYCLONE PATH NEARING THE GULF STREAM SATURDAY, ASTRONGER SOLUTION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THEPREFERENCE IS FOR A STRONGER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS WITHABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON INITIALIZATION ERRORS ANDPOSSIBLE GULF STREAM INTERACTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Box Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Interesting ... MID-SOUTH TO ATLANTIC CANADA SYSTEM FRI-SUN~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFSCONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGEACROSS MISSOURI, ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WAS A FEW HPA TOO WEAK WITH THEIR SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS LIKELY AN ISSUE THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF THEIR FORECASTS. WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST WHICH STRENGTHEN ITS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD LEAD TO SOME EXCESSIVE PROGRESSION, THE INITIALIZATION ISSUES IN THE GUIDANCE MAKE THE STRONG GFS SOLUTION APPEAR MOST PLAUSIBLE. PLUS, WITH THE CYCLONE PATH NEARING THE GULF STREAM SATURDAY, A STRONGER SOLUTION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A STRONGER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND POSSIBLE GULF STREAM INTERACTION. It's a commodity for the NCEP diagnostic office to go with the GFS, but ... ah, I hate say, this seems to be a unique situation that the other guidance' are inherently having difficulties with. edit: D'oh! someone beat me to it -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 First guess. Probably not tight enough with the gradient on the western edge and probably not high enough with totals in eastern Maine. Not bad overall Chris Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Interesting ... MID-SOUTH TO ATLANTIC CANADA SYSTEM FRI-SUN ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ PREFERENCE: SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFS CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MISSOURI, ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WAS A FEW HPA TOO WEAK WITH THEIR SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS LIKELY AN ISSUE THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF THEIR FORECASTS. WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST WHICH STRENGTHEN ITS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD LEAD TO SOME EXCESSIVE PROGRESSION, THE INITIALIZATION ISSUES IN THE GUIDANCE MAKE THE STRONG GFS SOLUTION APPEAR MOST PLAUSIBLE. PLUS, WITH THE CYCLONE PATH NEARING THE GULF STREAM SATURDAY, A STRONGER SOLUTION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A STRONGER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND POSSIBLE GULF STREAM INTERACTION. It's a commodity for the NCEP diagnostic office to go with the GFS, but ... ah, I hate say, this seems to be a unique situation that the other guidance' are inherently having difficulties with. A day late and a dollar short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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