Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS = 4-6" Hartford straight north and south. 6-12" Tolland- ORH- Rt 2 slant. Probably 12+ South shore and SE MA. Maybe around a foot Boston. 6-10" interior NE MA. This is straight QPF without any enhancement or banding features. I think 3-6 or maybe 4-8 is safe for this area now..GFS being the only model showing this doesn't make me feel easy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Every storm is different and the calculations that go into the models are extremely complex, so I don't think simple bias comparisons are particularly useful. That said, the GFS was persistently off with its QPF distribution for this past storm. For several cycles, it consistently showed the heaviest wraparound precip in SNE with a sharp cutoff into NYS. It ended up being off by .5 - 1" liquid equivalent for NEPA, SNY, and ENY in the short term. The ECMWF and CMC were much better in this regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah I've been juggling performance nuances in mind's eye ever since I read their discussion. Not to impugn their efforts, but I have noticed a bit of a biased sort of disregard toward the GFS by NCEP. They seem to go out of their way to criticize it -- and let's face it, the model earns its ridicule much of the time! However, as you suggest ... there are certain scenarios where that might get them, or anyone else that assumes, into trouble, if perhaps they are "sort of" knee jerk reliant on the same bashing to guide them through an uncertainty such as this. Particularly when said uncertainty could have dire rammifications. Not to be an alarmist, but a straight up GFS solution would be a ferocious threat to anyone caught off guard. That's the problem, it's given us such a track record of inconsistency it's hard to buy it completely. You don't want to get the rug pulled out from under you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It's such a shaky foundation to build a forecast on. However the Euro hasn't been bullet proof either. Yeah agree. Well basically, we will know shortly what's going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Weenie question here: will the spacing between this clipper and the rapidly retreating low (that looks sick on imagry btw), speed it up much? It almost looks like it will be caught up in the path being cleared Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z GGEM is weaker at H 36 and further east than it was at h48 on the 0z.... what does that mean? Give the last storm? Nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think 3-6 or maybe 4-8 is safe for this area now..GFS being the only model showing this doesn't make me feel easy RGEM matches GFS qpf down this way. .5" + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm pretty confident the GFS is overdone. However, I do think mild weight can be put on it for a blended forecast. I can see a high end advisory to low end warning event for BOS and down toward PVD...perhaps 2-4" or so in the E CT up through ORH and 495 bands...maybe 3-5" the eastern side of that zone. The CCB is going to be very intense though, so a few miles could end up causing a ramp up from like 3" or 4" to 10". I think so too. Several SREF members bring blizzard conditions to EMA... enough to make the GFS solution at least plausible. And the other guidance has been ticking west with the QPF distribution, if not with the SLP track. But most SREF members are more of a glancing blow and model consensus is similar. I think a blend is reasonable too but will be peaking at satellite, the Euro, and ensembles with interest later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 RGEM matches GFS qpf down this way. .5" + For now I think we should count on and invest in 3-6 and see what the Euro suite does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The problem with this storm is that I think it will be feast or famine. There may be an area of light to moderate snows ahead of the developing low that tries to even the distribution out, but this is something where 50 miles mean 5" vs 15". Maybe sharper than that. Gotta remember that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Don't really think the ensembles are that useful this close in though I'd think in the instance when the op is making some pretty serious adjustments though, they'd be more useful than otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 For now I think we should count on and invest in 3-6 and see what the Euro suite does I think 3-6 is reasonable SE of 95 right now... if the Euro nudges toward the GFS, maybe more widespread with higher amounts east. If not, I don't think widespread 3-6 is really a sensible call at this time. Especially if the idea of a tight gradient is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think 3-6 is reasonable SE of 95 right now... if the Euro nudges toward the GFS, maybe more widespread with higher amounts east. If not, I don't think widespread 3-6 is really a sensible call at this time. Especially if the idea of a tight gradient is correct. There will also be a fronto band well west of the CCb..Sometimes folks forget that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 That's the problem, it's given us such a track record of inconsistency it's hard to buy it completely. You don't want to get the rug pulled out from under you. Yeah, it's a head scratcher But like I just said, for it to be wrong now after the last 4 cycles of hammered consistency, the only break-down in which was to bring more intensity/impact to the table, really puts a lot of onus on the GFS -- it's gotta score here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Here's a thought ... with the 18z, 00z, 06z, and now 12z runs ...all virtually identical outside of excessively petty pickiness, for it to be wrong would have to rank really, really high in he annals of it's all-time blunders. ...It's almost like you are looking at the same run across all four of those cycles; and the fact that said pettiness provides an observation that if anything there is subtly increased intensity/impact, really puts the onus on the GFS to score here. All models, and the GFS in particular, have occasionally shown a persistent solution only to be wrong with the outcome. It actually happens fairly frequently. But unless the error impacts a particular region, and especially if the impact isn't significant in terms of sensible weather, most people don't notice. You don't have to go far into the past for an example. For at least 8 cycles leading up to yesterday, the GFS insisted that heavy snow would not make it west of the NY/MA border... or at least not much west of the Hudson River. As it turned out, the heavy snow blasted 100 miles west of there... basically like the ECMWF had shown for 3 days (and the CMC/UK occasonally as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'd think in the instance when the op is making some pretty serious adjustments though, they'd be more useful than otherwise. Yeah but the OP GFS has been pretty steady the last 3 runs or so, I just don't know how useful they are inside 30 hours maybe one of the Mets can comment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 There will also be a fronto band well west of the CCb..Sometimes folks forget that In this case, the fronto band is the CCB..so to speak. It's a tigh cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 In this case, the fronto band is the CCB..so to speak. It's a tigh cutoff. Possibly..but i don't think this is going to snow in PVD and be sunny here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Windcredible! Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Confidence is pretty low on this back in CT. GFS would be sweet but it's on its own. Could be total screw job for E CT...too warm to cash in yesterday...and potentially too far west to cash in tomorrow. Boo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 RGEM is a big hit even has a weenie trowal feature in NE mass for a while as it bombs. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Possibly..but i don't think this is going to snow in PVD and be sunny here I do not think anybody on here suggested that...we can try and keep the hyperbole to a minimum in this thread too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah but the OP GFS has been pretty steady the last 3 runs or so, I just don't know how useful they are inside 30 hours maybe one of the Mets can comment I think it's at this point we'd look to the SREFs more than the global ensembles, but it's just too bad that the SREFs blow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Possibly..but i don't think this is going to snow in PVD and be sunny here Had a similar situation the end of January where Worcester got 6 inches and I had bare ground, it can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Possibly..but i don't think this is going to snow in PVD and be sunny here Well that is one hell of a cutoff...lol. My point is that I don't see this as an even distribution as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Had a similar situation the end of January where Worcester got 6 inches and I had bare ground, it can happen that was something totally different..That wasn't a bombing coastal low to our south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patfan1987 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro actually has been a decent middle ground so notwithstanding everything else it should be the default for this system. It always is slow to trend and if it continues to do so I think we have something real here.isnt it slow to trend because it only runs twice a day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Had a similar situation the end of January where Worcester got 6 inches and I had bare ground, it can happen Yeah, but that was a norlun event...where its more prone to happen. Sometimes it happens in coastals, but this one has some leftover lift from the upper level trough axis as it crosses us so most of SNE will see at least an inch or two...the tight cutoff idea is basically like where it can go from 2 inches to 7 or 8 inches in 20 miles or something. I don't think it will be where someone sees not a single flake and then 10 miles away gets 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think it's at this point we'd look to the SREFs more than the global ensembles, but it's just too bad that the SREFs blow. Yeah, Srefs are not much use really, I look at them for entertainment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 RGEM is a big hit even has a weenie trowal feature in NE mass for a while as it bombs. http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html That's either where the CMC/GFS stuff is going to fly or flop. The main difference isn't really where they place say the 1/1.25 lines it's that GFS/CMC wrap a lot more moisture back with a trowal like feature. Either brilliance or bust. Euro should shed some light in an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 In this case, the fronto band is the CCB..so to speak. It's a tigh cutoff. GFS frontogenesis signal is quite robust, I have to say, arcing from ORH to PWM. BHB gets crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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