RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It is a northern stream distrubance right? Then gfs runs the show with those...euro not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Mid levels are a coastal destroyer on the GFS. And well into the coastal plain. Southern energy rounding out through the midwest seems to be what tugs this thing west and bombs it out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Let's see if the euro ramps up a bit. If it does, game on for something big. Agreed. The GFS has actually been the most consistent run-to-run for this system over the last 3 or 4, but I honestly only value consistency when it's from the Euro. If the Euro holds serve, it's a glancing blow/scraper in Boston, nice little storm for the cape. If we see a bigger hit, it's officially game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 500mb is a mini-nuke. Closes off just E of CC. If that happens any sooner, we are in for an even bigger system than what's portrayed on the GFS, verbatim. It's very close to closing off South of LI hr 36. Beware what you wish for. That might be warm for Cape/Islands and some portions of the south coast if it comes in anymore amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The Euro has been so bad on anything not coming out of the Gulf all year its surprising they'd go near it as preferring it on a more northern stream system...the Euro is not terribly far east of the GFS but its been too low on QPF for non-southern branch systems all season til inside 24 hours. I was thinking this yesterday but did not want to say it for fear of being 'd Northern stream systems have been giving it trouble, fir sure. Give it a couple hours and we'll know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Uncle not like GFS so sort of a red flag IMO, but looked like it came west of 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I was thinking this yesterday but did not want to say it for fear of being 'd Northern stream systems have been giving it trouble, fir sure. Give it a couple hours and we'll know. Really the only one it came close to getting right in the northern branch was the small clipper that got NYC several days back but it again ended up too dry as we did see some 2-3 inch amounts on LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 How good is the uncle in handling the northern stream waves? And basically overall how has it performed? I hear it referenced but never hear anyone say it scored a coup over the other models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well the GFS has been horrible lately. It was awful with the little clipper 2 weeks ago. So, it gives me some pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Water Vapor imagery shows a lot more moisture to deal with than models currently have as of their 12z run. I was just looking at those and agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 However, it doesn't mean it is incorrect...it just makes me think twice of 10-15" for BOS and just SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I was thinking this yesterday but did not want to say it for fear of being 'd Northern stream systems have been giving it trouble, fir sure. Give it a couple hours and we'll know. Maybe we will, but what if it doesn't budge? Which model do we think is more likely to fall on it's face within 24 hrs, the Euro or the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The euro has been slow to the party all year with this types of events. That being said, ultimately the gfs may be overdone in the end, but closer to right. Really would love to bite on a big (12+) solution, but the gfs is kind of an outlier, but has been the most consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyclone-68 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I would have to imagine there would be some thundersnow possibilities with this system as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols1989 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z GFS shows 50-55knot surface winds. Whether or not they are gusts I don't know, my guess is they are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Maybe we will, but what if it doesn't budge? Which model do we think is more likely to fall on it's face within 24 hrs, the Euro or the GFS? Use the 60/40 blend. Euro/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well, that was amusing. I wonder what the ensembles will show. Even if it's exaggerated, it sill suggests some more amped and closer in. A few more jumps like that and I will return on Monday to a snowy driveway. Heck, I might even get a couple up in Jackson. 22.9/20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Any chance for a deform band out this way? Looks like maybe 4-6 for this area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The Euro has been so bad on anything not coming out of the Gulf all year its surprising they'd go near it as preferring it on a more northern stream system...the Euro is not terribly far east of the GFS but its been too low on QPF for non-southern branch systems all season til inside 24 hours. Yeah I've been juggling performance nuances in mind's eye ever since I read their discussion. Not to impugn their efforts, but I have noticed a bit of a biased sort of disregard toward the GFS by NCEP. They seem to go out of their way to criticize it -- and let's face it, the model earns its ridicule much of the time! However, as you suggest ... there are certain scenarios where that might get them, or anyone else that assumes, into trouble, if perhaps they are "sort of" knee jerk reliant on the same bashing to guide them through an uncertainty such as this. Particularly when said uncertainty could have dire rammifications. Not to be an alarmist, but a straight up GFS solution would be a ferocious threat to anyone caught off guard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well, that was amusing. I wonder what the ensembles will show. Even if it's exaggerated, it sill suggests some more amped and closer in. A few more jumps like that and I will return on Monday to a snowy driveway. Heck, I might even get a couple up in Jackson. 22.9/20 Don't really think the ensembles are that useful this close in though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 At least back here, rgem supports even a little more qpf than the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Euro actually has been a decent middle ground so notwithstanding everything else it should be the default for this system. It always is slow to trend and if it continues to do so I think we have something real here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Uncle not like GFS so sort of a red flag IMO, but looked like it came west of 00z. I wouldn't put much stock in the gfs unless it has support from the euro this run. Most of the time if it's left on it's own it's wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Scooter, is the RPM still being silly with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DomNH Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Almost more interested in the GFS ens than the Euro. 6z GFS ens mean looked just a hair SE of the OP wrt MSLP and I think the 12z OP was just a hair SE of the 6z OP, though the precip shield was more robust. Really hard to say if the GFS is on crack being as amped as it is with everything at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm pretty confident the GFS is overdone. However, I do think mild weight can be put on it for a blended forecast. I can see a high end advisory to low end warning event for BOS and down toward PVD...perhaps 2-4" or so in the E CT up through ORH and 495 bands...maybe 3-5" the eastern side of that zone. The CCB is going to be very intense though, so a few miles could end up causing a ramp up from like 3" or 4" to 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nwbostonwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z GGEM is weaker at H 36 and further east than it was at h48 on the 0z.... what does that mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Here's a thought ... with the 18z, 00z, 06z, and now 12z runs ...all virtually identical outside of excessively petty pickiness, for it to be wrong would have to rank really, really high in the annals of it's all-time blunders. ...It's almost like you are looking at the same run across all four of those cycles; and the fact that said pettiness provides an observation that if anything there is subtly increased intensity/impact, really puts the onus on the GFS to score here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well the GFS has been horrible lately. It was awful with the little clipper 2 weeks ago. So, it gives me some pause. It's such a shaky foundation to build a forecast on. However the Euro hasn't been bullet proof either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Scooter, is the RPM still being silly with this? 12z was more down to earth. 8-10 for Messenger. 4-6 for me. 2-4 BOS. Downeast ME destroyed. But, the RPM is still in wild swing mode. It was awful last event until like 12-18 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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