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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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Let's see if the euro ramps up a bit. If it does, game on for something big.

 

Agreed.

 

The GFS has actually been the most consistent run-to-run for this system over the last 3 or 4, but I honestly only value consistency when it's from the Euro.

 

If the Euro holds serve, it's a glancing blow/scraper in Boston, nice little storm for the cape.

 

If we see a bigger hit, it's officially game on.

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500mb is a mini-nuke.  Closes off just E of CC.  If that happens any sooner, we are in for an even bigger system than what's portrayed on the GFS, verbatim.

It's very close to closing off South of LI hr 36. Beware what you wish for. That might be warm for Cape/Islands and some portions of the south coast if it comes in anymore amped.

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The Euro has been so bad on anything not coming out of the Gulf all year its surprising they'd go near it as preferring it on a more northern stream system...the Euro is not terribly far east of the GFS but its been too low on QPF for non-southern branch systems all season til inside 24 hours.

 

I was thinking this yesterday but did not want to say it for fear of being :weenie: 'd

Northern stream systems have been giving it trouble, fir sure.

Give it a couple hours and we'll know.

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I was thinking this yesterday but did not want to say it for fear of being :weenie: 'd

Northern stream systems have been giving it trouble, fir sure.

Give it a couple hours and we'll know.

 

Really the only one it came close to getting right in the northern branch was the small clipper that got NYC several days back but it again ended up too dry as we did see some 2-3 inch amounts on LI.

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I was thinking this yesterday but did not want to say it for fear of being :weenie: 'd

Northern stream systems have been giving it trouble, fir sure.

Give it a couple hours and we'll know.

Maybe we will, but what if it doesn't budge?

 

Which model do we think is more likely to fall on it's face within 24 hrs, the Euro or the GFS?

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The Euro has been so bad on anything not coming out of the Gulf all year its surprising they'd go near it as preferring it on a more northern stream system...the Euro is not terribly far east of the GFS but its been too low on QPF for non-southern branch systems all season til inside 24 hours.

 

Yeah I've been juggling performance nuances in mind's eye ever since I read their discussion.  

 

Not to impugn their efforts, but I have noticed a bit of a biased sort of disregard toward the GFS by NCEP.  They seem to go out of their way to criticize it -- and let's face it, the model earns its ridicule much of the time!  

 

However, as you suggest ... there are certain scenarios where that might get them, or anyone else that assumes, into trouble, if perhaps they are "sort of" knee jerk reliant on the same bashing to guide them through an uncertainty such as this. Particularly when said uncertainty could have dire rammifications.  

 

Not to be an alarmist, but a straight up GFS solution would be a ferocious threat to anyone caught off guard. 

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Well, that was amusing.  I wonder what the ensembles will show.  Even if it's exaggerated, it sill suggests some more amped and closer in. 

 

A few more jumps like that and I will return on Monday to a snowy driveway.  Heck, I might even get a couple up in Jackson.

 

22.9/20

 

Don't really think the ensembles are that useful this close in though

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Almost more interested in the GFS ens than the Euro. 6z GFS ens mean looked just a hair SE of the OP wrt MSLP and I think the 12z OP was just a hair SE of the 6z OP, though the precip shield was more robust. Really hard to say if the GFS is on crack being as amped as it is with everything at 500mb.

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I'm pretty confident the GFS is overdone.

 

However, I do think mild weight can be put on it for a blended forecast. I can see a high end advisory to low end warning event for BOS and down toward PVD...perhaps 2-4" or so in the E CT up through ORH and 495 bands...maybe 3-5" the eastern side of that zone.

 

 

The CCB is going to be very intense though, so a few miles could end up causing a ramp up from like 3" or 4" to 10".

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Here's a thought ... with the 18z, 00z, 06z, and now 12z runs ...all virtually identical outside of excessively petty pickiness, for it to be wrong would have to rank really, really high in the annals of it's all-time blunders. ...It's almost like you are looking at the same run across all four of those cycles; and the fact that said pettiness provides an observation that if anything there is subtly increased intensity/impact, really puts the onus on the GFS to score here. 

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