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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper


ORH_wxman

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Hopefully this ticks a little more west so we can sneak out 3-6".  Not sure it will come around enough for more.

 

Hoping Tuesday can do the same.

 

Tuesday more of a northern stream clipper, The flow is flatter so its further north and looks to slide out underneath us ENE, We should see Lt-Mod snows from that one

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historically it seems these modeled E MA type deals never seem to work out and you end up with fringe effects...will wait and see of course.

 

This is true; typically there's an "outside looking in" situation when the radar has a gorgeous CCB setting up S-N oriented just offshore. Cape looks to do well, but I certainly would love if the trend continued just a bit more W/NW to get into a spot where the gradient wouldn't be so scary for something vs. almost nothing. This one looks fun to be under!

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The tolerance of these topics going slightly hyperbolic is directly related to the areas that may be impacted. Right now the majority of models show the greatest impact is in eastern and SE areas. It's interesting how strict things become when the population centers aren't under the bullseye.

This is a crushing blow to the Cape on many 0z and 12z models and in parts of eastern areas.

Yea lets tone it down it may not effect anyone outside of SE Mass.

Verbatim on the NAM, its a blizzard for the Cape and close to being one for the rest of ENE with a slight to modest shift west. Not hyperbole,

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This is true; typically there's an "outside looking in" situation when the radar has a gorgeous CCB setting up S-N oriented just offshore. Cape looks to do well, but I certainly would love if the trend continued just a bit more W/NW to get into a spot where the gradient wouldn't be so scary for something vs. almost nothing. This one looks fun to be under!

General rule of thumb is that if ORH doesn't get whacked, then we won't.

 

Very climatologically unfavored....Dec 1981, but they are rare......ususally just the cape, or the whole deal.

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FYI Just made a banter thread since it seems a banter and discussion thread per storm is the new norm 

 

 

Good idea...we can keep the emotional diatribes and musings to that thread.

 

We will stick to this thread being a place where people can come to read analyitcal posts on the storm.

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First off the rgem looks great. 2 for 2...great hit for the cape and se/e areas. Parts of the cape are over 15mm.

My point was the tolerance for exaggerative and hyperbolic posts relates directly to who is in the jackpot. Really the only one that's honest about that is Ray. Now back to our regular programming while we wait for the gfs to unleash a fury upon us.

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First off the rgem looks great. 2 for 2...great hit for the cape and se/e areas. Parts of the cape are over 15mm.

My point was the tolerance for exaggerative and hyperbolic posts relates directly to who is in the jackpot. Really the only one that's honest about that is Ray. Now back to our regular programming while we wait for the gfs to unleash a fury upon us.

 

I find this run of the GFS kind of critical. If it continues to show a much bigger hit, that'll be four runs in a row showing the storm with a greater impact while other guidance has crept in its direction (though not as robust in impact).

 

If it eases off a bit, the overall guidance envelope narrows and it would appear our endgame is probably something in the NAM/EURO area with a nice Cape hit, a sharp E-W gradient and minimal impacts west of 495-ish.

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I find this run of the GFS kind of critical. If it continues to show a much bigger hit, that'll be four runs in a row showing the storm with a greater impact while other guidance has crept in its direction (though not as robust in impact).

If it eases off a bit, the overall guidance envelope narrows and it would appear our endgame is probably something in the NAM/EURO area with a nice Cape hit, a sharp E-W gradient and minimal impacts west of 495-ish.

If the gfs is over amped and on it's own it's tossed. Too many times in borderline situations it's been overdone. Consensus is setting up pretty well if you consider the 0z euro, 12z rgem and nam.

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This is true; typically there's an "outside looking in" situation when the radar has a gorgeous CCB setting up S-N oriented just offshore. Cape looks to do well, but I certainly would love if the trend continued just a bit more W/NW to get into a spot where the gradient wouldn't be so scary for something vs. almost nothing. This one looks fun to be under!

 

Shape of the coastline FTL. We're in a similar situation up here, where north of PWM should do well, but south naso much.

 

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is that current BOX map updated ..Are all those totals for snowfall tomorrow?

 

Yes. You seem to encounter this question often.

 

Note the timestamp posted each time snowfall forecasts are posted:

 

Graphic last modified: Friday, 14th February, 2014 @ 4:29AM

 

It appears below the map, and the map itself has text at the bottom indicating the time frame of the forecast (in this case, ending 1PM Sunday), and the associated Winter Weather Message link at the top tells you what event the product is associated with.

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