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Feb 15 clipper/redeveloper

ORH_wxman

By ORH_wxman,
in New England

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 2/14/2014 at 3:49 PM, sbos_wx said:

GFS = 4-6" Hartford straight north and south. 6-12" Tolland- ORH- Rt 2 slant. Probably 12+ South shore and SE MA. Maybe around a foot Boston. 6-10" interior NE MA. 

 

This is straight QPF without any enhancement or banding features.

I think 3-6 or maybe 4-8 is safe for this area now..GFS being the only model showing this doesn't make me feel easy

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted

Every storm is different and the calculations that go into the models are extremely complex, so I don't think simple bias comparisons are particularly useful.  That said, the GFS was persistently off with its QPF distribution for this past storm.  For several cycles, it consistently showed the heaviest wraparound precip in SNE with a sharp cutoff into NYS.  It ended up being off by .5 - 1" liquid equivalent for NEPA, SNY, and ENY in the short term.  The ECMWF and CMC were much better in this regard.

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OceanStWx

OceanStWx

Posted
Posted
  On 2/14/2014 at 4:12 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah I've been juggling performance nuances in mind's eye ever since I read their discussion.  

 

Not to impugn their efforts, but I have noticed a bit of a biased sort of disregard toward the GFS by NCEP.  They seem to go out of their way to criticize it -- and let's face it, the model earns its ridicule much of the time!  

 

However, as you suggest ... there are certain scenarios where that might get them, or anyone else that assumes, into trouble, if perhaps they are "sort of" knee jerk reliant on the same bashing to guide them through an uncertainty such as this. Particularly when said uncertainty could have dire rammifications.  

 

Not to be an alarmist, but a straight up GFS solution would be a ferocious threat to anyone caught off guard. 

 

That's the problem, it's given us such a track record of inconsistency it's hard to buy it completely. You don't want to get the rug pulled out from under you.

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eduggs

eduggs

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Posted
  On 2/14/2014 at 4:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

I'm pretty confident the GFS is overdone.

 

However, I do think mild weight can be put on it for a blended forecast. I can see a high end advisory to low end warning event for BOS and down toward PVD...perhaps 2-4" or so in the E CT up through ORH and 495 bands...maybe 3-5" the eastern side of that zone.

 

 

The CCB is going to be very intense though, so a few miles could end up causing a ramp up from like 3" or 4" to 10".

I think so too.  Several SREF members bring blizzard conditions to EMA... enough to make the GFS solution at least plausible.  And the other guidance has been ticking west with the QPF distribution, if not with the SLP track.  But most SREF members are more of a glancing blow and model consensus is similar.  I think a blend is reasonable too but will be peaking at satellite, the Euro, and ensembles with interest later today.

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Zeus

Zeus

Posted
Posted
  On 2/14/2014 at 4:26 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

For now I think we should count on and invest in 3-6 and see what the Euro suite does

 

I think 3-6 is reasonable SE of 95 right now... if the Euro nudges toward the GFS, maybe more widespread with higher amounts east.

 

If not, I don't think widespread 3-6 is really a sensible call at this time. Especially if the idea of a tight gradient is correct.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
  On 2/14/2014 at 4:28 PM, Zeus said:

I think 3-6 is reasonable SE of 95 right now... if the Euro nudges toward the GFS, maybe more widespread with higher amounts east.

 

If not, I don't think widespread 3-6 is really a sensible call at this time. Especially if the idea of a tight gradient is correct.

There will also be a fronto band well west of the CCb..Sometimes folks forget that

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
  On 2/14/2014 at 4:21 PM, OceanStWx said:

That's the problem, it's given us such a track record of inconsistency it's hard to buy it completely. You don't want to get the rug pulled out from under you.

 

Yeah, it's a head scratcher 

 

But like I just said, for it to be wrong now after the last 4 cycles of hammered consistency, the only break-down in which was to bring more intensity/impact to the table, really puts a lot of onus on the GFS -- it's gotta score here.

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eduggs

eduggs

Posted
Posted
  On 2/14/2014 at 4:19 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Here's a thought ... with the 18z, 00z, 06z, and now 12z runs ...all virtually identical outside of excessively petty pickiness, for it to be wrong would have to rank really, really high in he annals of it's all-time blunders. ...It's almost like you are looking at the same run across all four of those cycles; and the fact that said pettiness provides an observation that if anything there is subtly increased intensity/impact, really puts the onus on the GFS to score here. 

All models, and the GFS in particular, have occasionally shown a persistent solution only to be wrong with the outcome.  It actually happens fairly frequently.  But unless the error impacts a particular region, and especially if the impact isn't significant in terms of sensible weather, most people don't notice.  You don't have to go far into the past for an example.  For at least 8 cycles leading up to yesterday, the GFS insisted that heavy snow would not make it west of the NY/MA border... or at least not much west of the Hudson River.  As it turned out, the heavy snow blasted 100 miles west of there... basically like the ECMWF had shown for 3 days (and the CMC/UK occasonally as well).

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted
  On 2/14/2014 at 4:27 PM, moneypitmike said:

I'd think in the instance when the op is making some pretty serious adjustments though, they'd be more useful than otherwise.

 

Yeah but the OP GFS has been pretty steady the last 3 runs or so, I just don't know how useful they are inside 30 hours maybe one of the Mets can comment

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted
  On 2/14/2014 at 4:31 PM, coldfront said:

Yeah but the OP GFS has been pretty steady the last 3 runs or so, I just don't know how useful they are inside 30 hours maybe one of the Mets can comment

I think it's at this point we'd look to the SREFs more than the global ensembles, but it's just too bad that the SREFs blow.

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Patfan1987

Patfan1987

Posted
Posted
  On 2/14/2014 at 4:16 PM, weathafella said:

Euro actually has been a decent middle ground so notwithstanding everything else it should be the default for this system. It always is slow to trend and if it continues to do so I think we have something real here.

isnt it slow to trend because it only runs twice a day?
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Posted
  On 2/14/2014 at 4:34 PM, Modfan said:

Had a similar situation the end of January where Worcester got 6 inches and I had bare ground, it can happen

 

 

Yeah, but that was a norlun event...where its more prone to happen.

 

Sometimes it happens in coastals, but this one has some leftover lift from the upper level trough axis as it crosses us so most of SNE will see at least an inch or two...the tight cutoff idea is basically like where it can go from 2 inches to 7 or 8 inches in 20 miles or something. I don't think it will be where someone sees not a single flake and then 10 miles away gets 5"

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Clinch Leatherwood

Clinch Leatherwood

Posted
Posted
  On 2/14/2014 at 4:32 PM, Ginxy said:

RGEM is a big hit even has a weenie trowal feature in NE mass for a while as it bombs. 

 

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

 

That's either where the CMC/GFS stuff is going to fly or flop.  The main difference isn't really where they place say the 1/1.25 lines it's that GFS/CMC wrap a lot more moisture back with a trowal like feature.  Either brilliance or bust.

 

Euro should shed some light in an hour.

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