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February 14-15 Event Obs


Kmlwx

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Looking at the 3z HRRR model and at 18z it is placing the system about 75 to 100 miles north of the GFS when it nears the Kansas/Missouri border. That would bring the system closer to us, giving us more potential (but also possibly warmer temperatures).

 

Going to sleep now. Hope the overnight models do this system good (Good as in more snowfall for us.)

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I hate to bring this up but temps?  We never dropped and it's 35 at 7 am.  If it gets to 45 forget it, it'll be rain just like that Monday event a couple weeks back.

I think we should do fine... there is a solid snow pack and pressure should rise a bit during the day to get some cooling this evening.  We should dip in to the 20s tonight.. and the it is a northern stream vort... so it is cold core.. once it passes temps should be fine for some banding on the back end.   If this was coming through tomorrow at 4:00 PM, I would be more worried.  But it looks like it should arrive around dawn... not that I think this will be blockbuster.. but warning criteria (especially N/W of the cities) is at least a remote possibility.  

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So much for sleep. ECMWF encouraged me to stay up. Now I am disappointed :(

 

Dives way far south, even more so than the GFS and NAM, then moves up the coast too far out to affect the mid-atlantic. Maine's getting quite a storm from it, but we get very little, maybe 1-2 tenths of an inch of liquid, at best.

With this... the farther south the better... unless it is a complete whiff.. but we want to be on the northern side of the vort passage..

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It is a pretty prolonged event...pulses in here at 9-10pm, and doesnt really wrap up until early afternoon on Saturday...not too good for DC  and eastern burbs based on NAM....looks like another 4"+ event for MRB-Westminster crowd....I bet someone in that snow corridor gets 6"+

it may shift back to look like the 6z run at 18z, that's my hope, but none of the models other than the NAM have been too jazzed up about soooo...

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It is a pretty prolonged event...pulses in here at 9-10pm, and doesnt really wrap up until early afternoon on Saturday...not too good for DC  and eastern burbs based on NAM....looks like another 4"+ event for MRB-Westminster crowd....I bet someone in that snow corridor gets 6"+

 

LOL the models should be re-programmed to always have Westminster/Manchester as the jackpot.

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it may shift back to look like the 6z run at 18z, that's my hope, but none of the models other than the NAM have been too jazzed up about soooo...

 

it looks pretty lousy for me and you though hi-res gets you 2-3"....NW burbs event as usual....more absolutely pedestrian and lifeless suburban deck pics coming that could be taken in any event in any season since the McMansions were built

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