Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Good Lord, how much snow do you people want? An inch or two isn't enough? 2" minimum bar or the storm is a complete disaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 2" minimum bar or the storm is a complete disaster +1000 there is no such thing as too much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Good Lord, how much snow do you people want? An inch or two isn't enough? I wouldn't notice an inch or two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looking at the 3z HRRR model and at 18z it is placing the system about 75 to 100 miles north of the GFS when it nears the Kansas/Missouri border. That would bring the system closer to us, giving us more potential (but also possibly warmer temperatures). Going to sleep now. Hope the overnight models do this system good (Good as in more snowfall for us.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think we are in "When it can:It does" mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 So much for sleep. ECMWF encouraged me to stay up. Now I am disappointed Dives way far south, even more so than the GFS and NAM, then moves up the coast too far out to affect the mid-atlantic. Maine's getting quite a storm from it, but we get very little, maybe 1-2 tenths of an inch of liquid, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Good Lord, how much snow do you people want? An inch or two isn't enough? Theoretically, I'd love infinite snow. I'd like deathbands every three days or so with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens for the next hundred years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Ava showed the rpm this morning, gave me 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Ava showed the rpm this morning, gave me 4" she (or you) may have meant the 6Z NAM http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=042ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F06%2Fnam_namer_042_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Theoretically, I'd love infinite snow. I'd like deathbands every three days or so with highs in the 20s and lows in the teens for the next hundred years. I second that. Thundersnow included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Probably me, I saw it briefly as I got up to tend to a crying kid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smokeybandit Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This storm should do well. My parents' car is parked in front of the house because they're in Mexico and flew out of BWI. When parents/inlaws have left their car at our house for vacation this winter (3 times) we're up to 28" or so. The rest of the winter? About 4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I hate to bring this up but temps? We never dropped and it's 35 at 7 am. If it gets to 45 forget it, it'll be rain just like that Monday event a couple weeks back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I hate to bring this up but temps? We never dropped and it's 35 at 7 am. If it gets to 45 forget it, it'll be rain just like that Monday event a couple weeks back. I think we should do fine... there is a solid snow pack and pressure should rise a bit during the day to get some cooling this evening. We should dip in to the 20s tonight.. and the it is a northern stream vort... so it is cold core.. once it passes temps should be fine for some banding on the back end. If this was coming through tomorrow at 4:00 PM, I would be more worried. But it looks like it should arrive around dawn... not that I think this will be blockbuster.. but warning criteria (especially N/W of the cities) is at least a remote possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 So much for sleep. ECMWF encouraged me to stay up. Now I am disappointed Dives way far south, even more so than the GFS and NAM, then moves up the coast too far out to affect the mid-atlantic. Maine's getting quite a storm from it, but we get very little, maybe 1-2 tenths of an inch of liquid, at best. With this... the farther south the better... unless it is a complete whiff.. but we want to be on the northern side of the vort passage.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I hate to bring this up but temps? We never dropped and it's 35 at 7 am. If it gets to 45 forget it, it'll be rain just like that Monday event a couple weeks back. NAM says temps will be cold enough while GFS is warmer pick ur model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 LWX thinking 2-4" here. SREF mean is around 3" for MRB. American models pretty much in agreement. 00Z NAM 0.45" 06Z NAM 0.32" 00Z GFS 0.24" 06Z GFS 0.45" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 PDIII, thanks for the info on it being a cold northern vort. I think that Monday system that failed was a southern stream, and we'd reached the 50s the day before. I drove 33 miles from my rainy house that day to South Mountain on I-70 and walked around in heavy snow and 5" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I take it the Euro is not so keen on this as I haven't seen it mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I take it the Euro is not so keen on this as I haven't seen it mentioned. around .18" at BWI and similar around DCA I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bari Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS and NAM are ok, I'd say 1-2 for DC and BWI, maybe 1-3 just NW of the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z NAM too deep with the trough again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z NAM a lot drier for DC and Northern VA. NW of DC does well, of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It is a pretty prolonged event...pulses in here at 9-10pm, and doesnt really wrap up until early afternoon on Saturday...not too good for DC and eastern burbs based on NAM....looks like another 4"+ event for MRB-Westminster crowd....I bet someone in that snow corridor gets 6"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Hi Res, showing a swath of 0.5"+ for MRB - HGR and then JYO to Westminster.....DC is like 0.08"...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It is a pretty prolonged event...pulses in here at 9-10pm, and doesnt really wrap up until early afternoon on Saturday...not too good for DC and eastern burbs based on NAM....looks like another 4"+ event for MRB-Westminster crowd....I bet someone in that snow corridor gets 6"+ it may shift back to look like the 6z run at 18z, that's my hope, but none of the models other than the NAM have been too jazzed up about soooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Hi Res, showing a swath of 0.5"+ for MRB - HGR and then JYO to Westminster.....DC is like 0.08"...lol hits a brick wall called downslope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 hits a brick wall called downslope actually, later frames it comes east and BWI doesn't do that bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It is a pretty prolonged event...pulses in here at 9-10pm, and doesnt really wrap up until early afternoon on Saturday...not too good for DC and eastern burbs based on NAM....looks like another 4"+ event for MRB-Westminster crowd....I bet someone in that snow corridor gets 6"+ LOL the models should be re-programmed to always have Westminster/Manchester as the jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 it may shift back to look like the 6z run at 18z, that's my hope, but none of the models other than the NAM have been too jazzed up about soooo... it looks pretty lousy for me and you though hi-res gets you 2-3"....NW burbs event as usual....more absolutely pedestrian and lifeless suburban deck pics coming that could be taken in any event in any season since the McMansions were built Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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