thunderman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 That's a good map guys. 48 hour total is much more lit up over eastern PA/NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This thing looks like crap on hi-res sim radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The vort is a little south, but it goes negative and has some juice to it. As a NS vort, I would t be surprised if it ends up just a bit north, especially if it amps up a little earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 More snow is coming? After shoveling a double-wide driveway's worth of half-frozen slop/cement today for two hours, I almost hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The vort is a little south, but it goes negative and has some juice to it. As a NS vort, I would t be surprised if it ends up just a bit north, especially if it amps up a little earlier. yep NAM sort of gave in to the GFS though with the weaker solution there's "some" time so we can hope both are wrong.....except the Euro seems to agree with them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 There is always room for more snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 KDCA sounding for 00z Saturday before things get started. Not real favorable verbatim. 3z sounding even looks like some freezing drizzle potential verbatim, with very light precip knocking on the western burbs.By 6z, however little or much is falling it's all snow verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WHSV met just posted this. Fail ...I almost want to correct him, but I don't want to be "that guy". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jnis Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WHSV met just posted this. Fail ... I almost want to correct him, but I don't want to be "that guy". jay_fail.png It will spin up over Lake Alberta..then move south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yea the latest trend has been too much digging. 0z RGEM out on the B&W whites and is mainly a whiff to the south. Just a few mm's make it into Balt/DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 RGEM looks NAMish all the modeling is coming into agreement at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yea, Mitch is right. Too much dig is bad. Super fast flow. We need slp to track no more than 75+/- miles south of dc. Not enough time to crank so the sweet spot is small. 18z nam had us in the modeled sweet spot. Trends have been unfriendly since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yea, Mitch is right. Too much dig is bad. Super fast flow. We need slp to track no more than 75+/- miles south of dc. Not enough time to crank so the sweet spot is small. 18z nam had us in the modeled sweet spot. Trends have been unfriendly since. now watch the Euro go nuts with the thing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 now watch the Euro go nuts with the thing... Never know right? It's not resolved. Just trended worse for now. We'll know one way or the other by 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS is kinda different.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS is kinda different.. Not far from being an OK solution but not quite there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 As Wes said, the GFS is getting close to something respectable. Tomorrow's 12z should have the final word. Can't count out a little surprise with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm in Gfs close to banding us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian-Snowcover-Myth Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Watch the northern trend through out tomorows' runs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm in Gfs close to banding us Early-ish transfer Miller B situation. Not a bad run if you're hoping to trend to the golden zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm in Gfs close to banding us GFS is banding us it just doesn't know how to show it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Early-ish transfer Miller B situation. Not a bad run if you're hoping to trend to the golden zone. I would like to see a more compact low passing under us. We won't get much help once it clears the coast. Still fair potential for a 2-4/3-5 event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS looks like the SREFs=DCA/BWI screwing + undeserving BOS dumpage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Not far from being an OK solution but not quite there. Yeah, not time to get the lifeboats yet. Maybe the Euro will save us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS is banding us it just doesn't know how to show it. Profound and true. I'm sticking with vort101 and forecasting accum snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Profound and true. I'm sticking with vort101 and forecasting accum snow I dunno what to think. Usually I'd assume this screws us but it looks mighty fine. For now I want to see the low as far south and as strong as possible since a way we lose this stuff is by the low just not developing fast enough before it crushes Philly. The sfc is pretty meh.. but that can work if you don't live near DCA. It's a big time bomb potential too if it works out. New England smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cng885 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 2 m temps still warm at 42 on the GFS. I've had enough of this mixing crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 UKMET looks decent, like the other models, at 5H but it misses the explosion and probably gives us NAM/GFS qpf type numbers don't have the qpf maps for the needed time frame on Plymouth so I was looking at 700mb maps and they are similar to GFS looks like the UKMET actually misses NE to the east so the fast flow is being felt here's the 5H vort at 36 & 42 hrs though http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h36&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ukmet≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=h42&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I dunno what to think. Usually I'd assume this screws us but it looks mighty fine. For now I want to see the low as far south and as strong as possible since a way we lose this stuff is by the low just not developing fast enough before it crushes Philly. The sfc is pretty meh.. but that can work if you don't live near DCA. It's a big time bomb potential too if it works out. New England smoked. I don't know what to think either. Not sure what to root for. A simple approach is hoping for a compact low rounding the base and not stressing about what happens afterwards. Score our stripe and not read obs up north. If it goes further south but goes neutral/neg fast enough then we have boom potential of sorts. But I'll trade simple vs gambling for a bigger pot. Should be fun to track the low as it approaches if models continue to show us in the game for something. On a more anecdotal note...it kinda wants to snow this winter and storms haven't really busted low on precip overall. I'm kinda burnt out mentally after tracking todays storm for a month. I need normal sleep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think the problem on the southern solution is the lack of strong ridging in the atlantic. It won't stay as close to shore as we need for a real killer of a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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