Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS has to earn its way back into the rotation. It just pitched 1 2/3 innings, walking 4 batters, and giving up 5 ER....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 h5 on the GFS looks good as other have commented and it closes off quick at h85 near ORF. If that holds then I would expect to see a response at the surface. Wouldn't be surprised to see some advisory level snows with that somewhere in VA/MD, assuming temps do not interfere with things. NAM MOS has held the high tomorrow in the mid 30s at Dulles last two runs, while the GFS has gradually trended downward to 33 now at 18z. Obviously the GFS probably has the best shot in general at being correct with fresh snowpack, prob 33-35 ends up being reality IMO.FWIW, IAD plumes have slowly trended up as well in support, with most members showing some accumulation now on the 15z runs. The atmosphere is generally forced from the top down. not the other way around. Look there for clues/trends as to what the model may be trying to do at the surface in future runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS has to earn its way back into the rotation. It just pitched 1 2/3 innings, walking 4 batters, and giving up 5 ER....... On a Miller A/southern stream involvement. Proceed with caution, but this could easily be a different ballgame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 FWIW, 12z UKIE is 12mm (~0.45 to 0.5 QPF) of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 FWIW, 12z UKIE is 12mm (~0.45 to 0.5 QPF) of snow oh damn...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 FWIW, 12z UKIE is 12mm (~0.45 to 0.5 QPF) of snow Yoda, how marginal are temps? Like are you confident that's all snow or is it pretty borderline? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 FWIW, 12z UKIE is 12mm (~0.45 to 0.5 QPF) of snow Great. Now need to work on temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The GFS vort and low track is a really good one as others have noted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yoda, how marginal are temps? Like are you confident that's all snow or is it pretty borderline? 850s and 2mT good to go sir... both below 0 from 36 hrs (8pm Fri) to 60 hrs (8pm Sat) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 850s and 2mT good to go sir... both below 0 from 36 hrs (8pm Fri) to 60 hrs (8pm Sat) 850's look good on all the guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If the nam has a good run in an hour then I'm all in. I'm not betting against the nam anymore until it blows it. Probably tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If this hits, and it starts before midnight and rolls over to saturday AM, we will have four straight days of snowfall, measurable at that. Rare around here, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If the nam has a good run in an hour then I'm all in. I'm not betting against the nam anymore until it blows it. Probably tomorrow night.Same... I was hoping to get some sleep tonight... screw that 21z SREFs should be an interesting look in about 15 mins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If the nam has a good run in an hour then I'm all in. I'm not betting against the nam anymore until it blows it. Probably tomorrow night. That's what I'm hoping for....I mean, you would think the NAM would have looked like the GFS and vice versa.....the H5 map on the GFS is what got me going. If we get somthing like that, I'd think the precip would be better. Wes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Is tomorrow night our last accumulating of year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongRanger Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NAM clown maps have 8 to 12 for central MD. This week is reminiscent of the 1-2 punch of Feb 2010, even if only half as much snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Is tomorrow night our last accumulating of year? You never seem to be able to enjoy snow when you get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 21z SREF MSLP depiction is intriguing... seems some members are closer to the coast hrs 42-51 than where the mean is depicting it (you can tell by the darker blue and orange colors) interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 21z SREF MSLP depiction is intriguing... seems some members are closer to the coast hrs 42-51 than where the mean is depicting it (you can tell by the darker blue and orange colors) interesting... the heavy stuff goes around DCA/BWI lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_054_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=21¶m=precip_p24&fhr=054&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 NAM will be starting here shortly. Let's see if it keeps the idea of a nice vort pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NAM will be starting here shortly. Let's see if it keeps the idea of a nice vort pass. 18z GFS and SREFs have the u/l going further south then wide right of us than the NAM and RGEM depicted at 18z in fact, the SREFs sorta reminded me of, dare I say, 12/16/10, but on a much smaller scale Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Is tomorrow night our last accumulating of year? Hopefully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NAM look more diggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowNAO Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NAM is a lot more amped so far through 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NAM look more diggy I'm not so sure that's what we want too much like I mentioned, GFS and SREF go under and wide right of us NOTE: I only have out to 15 hrs so I don;t know how far south, just sayin' some models don't end up well for us with that scenario Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 the problem may be tonight's trough in NE we need some space between the 2 and the one tonight may force the next one south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm not so sure that's what we want too much like I mentioned, GFS and SREF go under and wide right of us NOTE: I only have out to 15 hrs so I don;t know how far south, just sayin' some models don't end up well for us with that scenario Yeah, you might wanna wait before we say its bad or good. I'm not sure yet and I'm out to 24. Looks decent to me, not sure why diggy would be bad in any circumstance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wintry precip around at 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 h5 is deeper, much more impressive...maybe about to go negative? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cng885 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 850 temps look good at 30..2m temps are on the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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