Ian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Troll? I hope we get it.. padding some more to our numbers is good.. we have like 4 days left of winter before the March superstorm scare that becomes a rainer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I swear I wish Snow Ian would come back. Today's version is really a downer. i've never used ignore. today may be my day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I swear I wish Snow Ian would come back. Today's version is really a downer. We usually own fast northern stream waves that need help to amplify as they pass us. I do like it more than I would normally but I can see it trending badly pretty easily too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 i've never used ignore. today may be my day I'm just skipping past. When it's ripping tomorrow, we'll have fun again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm just skipping past. When it's ripping tomorrow, we'll have fun again. The Tracker optimism is always great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 um...anybody see the GFS at H5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 That is what we call potent! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Is Bob Chill dead? Where are yall mofos....where the hell did that come from??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 bombs away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Precip isn't super impressive with it. H5 does look pretty, tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 am I looking at the same GFS you guys are? doesn't give that much qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 am I looking at the same GFS you guys are? doesn't give that much qpf I was just going to say the same thing. h5 is great though. Maybe one of those things where the surface would correct itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 am I looking at the same GFS you guys are? doesn't give that much qpf With that h5 the sfc would respond really quickly in subsequent runs. This has nice upside, especially for those up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 am I looking at the same GFS you guys are? doesn't give that much qpf Drooling is over H5. Surface slides east a bit it seems - best precip SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 am I looking at the same GFS you guys are? doesn't give that much qpf We just went through that drill up until last night. Must be a difficult pattern for the GFS to resolve. The upper levels support more precip than what is shown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 am I looking at the same GFS you guys are? doesn't give that much qpf it's not that much different than the last run .. more diggy/further south. it's also close to going neutral/neg a bit early.. tho it ends up pretty far south either way. it's a good spot for this type of wave which seems inevitable it will come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Cut qpf in half from previous runs but it looks like it should have double it instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's one of those things. Give us a pass and amp like that and we take our chances. It would be a fast developing storm. We could suck eggs or eat caviar. We'll see how it all looks overnight and tomorrow. I agree with ian that we can get hosed. But if h5 progresses as advertised I'll take my chances all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Do we not remember how the gfs has handled this storms qpf 6 hrs out? That's a nice h5 map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Up until 0Z last night, the GFS never gave me more than .4 liquid for today's storm. I have 14" of snow on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS is pretty good with northern stream stuff. Comparing it to today is not a good comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GFS is pretty good with northern stream stuff. Comparing it to today is not a good comparison.Thank you, people need to think of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Up until 0Z last night, the GFS never gave me more than .4 liquid for today's storm. I have 14" of snow on the ground. This. FDK was .6 or so on the GFS for days...19" fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 It's one of those things. Give us a pass and amp like that and we take our chances. It would be a fast developing storm. We could suck eggs or eat caviar. We'll see how it all looks overnight and tomorrow. I agree with ian that we can get hosed. But if h5 progresses as advertised I'll take my chances all day. no reason not to be interested at least. it's about as good a look as we want in this range and seems to be trending better. my concern is that the flow is pretty convoluted.. it does a dance with the current h5 low plus another wave that gets sucked into it etc. over the years when we've had lots of waves running all over the place we've tended to end up disappointed. that said.. there's no denying this is a decent winter and we've managed to trend well a number of times.. so it's certainly a better chance than normal from my perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 This. FDK was .6 or so on the GFS for days...19" fell. reference above - GFS is generally decent with northern stream energy. Could go either way I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 no reason not to be interested at least. it's about as good a look as we want in this range and seems to be trending better. my concern is that the flow is pretty convoluted.. it does a dance with the current h5 low plus another wave that gets sucked into it etc. over the years when we've had lots of waves running all over the place we've tended to end up disappointed. that said.. there's no denying this is a decent winter and we've managed to trend well a number of times.. so it's certainly a better chance than normal from my perspective. And just to set the record for what I've been thinking about this. If all goes well it's a 2-4/3-5 kind of thing unless all cylinders fire. I do expect at least "some" snow out of it. Lead is awful short and look is pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 My shock was more at the h5 map...definitely dug and tilted better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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