mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 RGEM....about .2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 time to pick apart the models when they don't show what you want.....ket's play! 18Z NAM says at 4PM positive trough with a base in Northern AR http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=003ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_003_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Water vapor at 4:15 PM shows to my weenie eyes a neutral trough heading negative with base in Northern AR top link is single image and bottom one is loop.....am I incorrect wrt trough looking neutral vs. positive? whatcha' think? http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20140214&endTime=-1&duration=0 http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20140214&endTime=-1&duration=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Any chance that all the snow cover will increase radiational cooling effects tonight? I have already dropped 6 degrees since maxing out at 56! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 time to pick apart the models when they don't show what you want.....ket's play! 18Z NAM says at 4PM positive trough with a base in Northern AR http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=003ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_003_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=L Water vapor at 4:15 PM shows to my weenie eyes a neutral trough heading negative with base in Northern AR top link is single image and bottom one is loop.....am I incorrect wrt trough looking neutral vs. positive? whatcha' think? http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20140214&endTime=-1&duration=0 http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=US&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20140214&endTime=-1&duration=6 I really want a surprise.. but when my temp is 52 it is hard to believe one is coming from this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Any chance that all the snow cover will increase radiational cooling effects tonight? I have already dropped 6 degrees since maxing out at 56! Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 gfs is a horrible tease. .20+/- near the cities but rates are weak with marginal temps. N MD definitely could get 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Trend of gfs looking good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Def still some potential to score with that sfc track and 500 path. I wish I could be out but I'm still forced to stay in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 sfc maybe a little better than yday locally according to the gfs.. thos most of the precip is done at this pt. of course it could also be 45 if today is any measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Def still some potential to score with that sfc track and 500 path. I wish I could be out but I'm still forced to stay in. It's a damn tease. If I saw every panels of the mid/upper levels but no precip output I would be all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The vort pass and 500 mb low look pretty promising to say the least. I think most would be paying closer attention if it wasn't the day after an hecs, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It's a damn tease. If I saw every panels of the mid/upper levels but no precip output I would be all in. Now where have I heard that about the GFS before. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The vort pass and 500 mb low look pretty promising to say the least. I think most would be paying closer attention if it wasn't the day after an hecs, I completely agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Now where have I heard that about the GFS before. MDstorm This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Now where have I heard that about the GFS before. MDstorm Yea but this time every single model basically says the same thing. Including the CRAS. I'm not saying that it can't surprise us because mid and upper levels look pretty good but it's hard to buy in right now. Very hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yea but this time every single model basically says the same thing. Including the CRAS. I'm not saying that it can't surprise us because mid and upper levels look pretty good but it's hard to buy in right now. Very hard. You are correct. There really isn't any relable guidance out there that says we should be expecting a pleasant surprise from this system. The poor qpf from the GFS has plenty of company. Looks like parts of SNE will make up for the rain they recieved during the last storm. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Dropped 10 degrees since my 3:00 torch, 46.2 and still dropping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vastateofmind Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Dropped 10 degrees since my 3:00 torch, 46.2 and still dropping Indeed. I'm down to 43 after a 3 p.m.high of 58. Easily lost half of our ~9" on open ground to today's warm-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yea but this time every single model basically says the same thing. Including the CRAS. I'm not saying that it can't surprise us because mid and upper levels look pretty good but it's hard to buy in right now. Very hard. Bob--go watch Bernie Rayno's 3:30 video. He might reel you back in a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Indeed. I'm down to 43 after a 3 p.m.high of 58. Easily lost half of our ~9" on open ground to today's warm-up. Boom scenario and we'll be right back up there rounding up. yes I am wishcasting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This one seems like a potential surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Symblized Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Other than the fact that this water vapor loop shows the classic end of a sweet Miller A, can anyone tell me what I should be looking at in this image vis-a-vis our QPF chances into tomorrow? Looks pretty decent to my weenie eyes. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Heck, the cold front ahead of the clipper hasn't event come close yet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This one seems like a potential surprise. Yeah, I have the strangest feeling that we might boom big. People keep saying different elements have potential. I think we can do this... If I can get even 1-3, I can be done with winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It's a damn tease. If I saw every panels of the mid/upper levels but no precip output I would be all in. It's a better run than the NAM for what that is worth. To bad it's not colder. If it were night, we'd probably do OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It's a better run than the NAM for what that is worth. To bad it's not colder. If it were night, we'd probably do OK. I thought the timing is late overnight through sunrise? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Other than the fact that this water vapor loop shows the classic end of a sweet Miller A, can anyone tell me what I should be looking at in this image vis-a-vis our QPF chances into tomorrow? Looks pretty decent to my weenie eyes. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/wv-animated.gif I just put my picture hanging level on that trough and it is neutral, so anything more and she's negative...I'm positive! that wasn't supposed to happen on both the 18Z NAM and GFS until 6Z and further east ...but I have no idea if it will make any difference in the end! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 loop the precip maps on this 21z RAP.....it's so typically DCA/BWI lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=rap&area=namer&cycle=20140214%2021%20UTC¶m=precip_p01&fourpan=no&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 loop the precip maps on this 21z RAP.....it's so typically DCA/BWI lol http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model%20Guidance&model=rap&area=namer&cycle=20140214%2021%20UTC¶m=precip_p01&fourpan=no&imageSize=M I think it's still out of range of its good accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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