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2/13/2014 Major Coastal Storm Observations Part 2


Sickman

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Was looking at the Top 10 NESIS storms in my KU book last night and it was astounding at how big this storm actually was for areas not even close to us. I really wanted to see where to rank it taking into account snowfall from up and down the eastern seaboard including the south. Ice isnt factored into this from what i understand, although this was a severe ice storm down south for many and also a big snowstorm as well.

I deduced the top three 93',96', 03' the rest IMO were a toss up. My rough guess would slot this from #6-#10. If anybody wants to add to this i'd appreciate this. After this event was FAR from being big just for us

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It's really a testament to how good the long range guidance can be at times. I can remember all the discussions

about the cold and snowy look of the CFS back in late January. 

 

attachicon.gifsummaryCFSv2.NaT2mProb.201402.gif

 

attachicon.gifsummaryCFSv2.NaPrecProb.201402.gif

Yeh , we put those CFSV2 maps up , they were great and in Jan leading into Feb  .( JMA weeklies ) king of this years 500 . I remember saying when we look back at this winter , we were gona say wow what a layup that was .  In the end it always looks easy , but you`re always going to be cautious because there just so model data that pulls you in different directions .

Don't think we are done next week . We may have 2 systems before we warm , but the Euro day 10 plus at 500 mb says it comes back for a bit .

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The more I ago around and look, measure, etc..the more I think we were closer to 18 or 19" than 15". But I will stick with my 16" reading..I think there was some compaction/etc. Anyway...here we are:

 

post-6-0-00754700-1392384552_thumb.jpg

 

post-6-0-68589000-1392384612_thumb.jpg

 

Can't flip that last photo for some reason. You're all used to craning your necks like that anyway from looking at the KMA model.

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Had 3.5" overnight in Bay Ridge after 8.5" in the morning round for a total of 12".

 

Seasonal total of 53"....incredible!

48" for the season in Long Beach. I guess my mini-shaft zone yesterday enabled you to pull ahead. :P

 

I should be in the 50"+ club after tomorrow I think. Hopefully much doesn't melt today. After yesterday, my snowpack is the equivalent of Walter White at the end of the Breaking Bad finale-it's been through an absolute war.

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48" for the season in Long Beach. I guess my mini-shaft zone yesterday enabled you to pull ahead. :P

 

I should be in the 50"+ club after tomorrow I think. Hopefully much doesn't melt today. After yesterday, my snowpack is the equivalent of Walter White at the end of the Breaking Bad finale-it's been through an absolute war.

You did really poorly yesterday...I was surprised to hear you only got 8".

 

The snowpack here is like 14" of glacier with 3" of fluff on top. Unreal for Southern Brooklyn; I've been taking a lot of pictures to try to remember and savor the moment. 

 

I think this next storm might be yours. You are closer to the ocean which will help with the moisture-starved system and the low being further offshore. 

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I think the HRRR was showing too much dynamic cooling with initial round convection near NYC. Resulting in higher snow/sleet totals. Otherwise, handled everything else pretty well last night.

 

It was almost 50-75 miles too far SE with the initial band of precip, it wasn't even close to being right, it performed horrific, especially here in Philly. 

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Anybody care to shed light on that 6.9" total at JFK?? Seems bunk (what else is new)

There was definitely a zone right on the south shore that had sleet/rain very early. I only had about 7" total summing parts 1 and 2, and a ton of rain/sleet in the middle. Places just 10 miles north of me had a foot. The dual pol radar yesterday morning was just torture.

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i don't consider it one snow event...After the 8-10" or so that fell yesterday morning it took almost another day for the second round...it also dry slotted and rained all day and evening...The second round was from the upper low...It's nit picking but it what it is...It still adds up to 12.5" but not whole...

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There was definitely a zone right on the south shore that had sleet/rain very early. I only had about 7" total summing parts 1 and 2, and a ton of rain/sleet in the middle. Places just 10 miles north of me had a foot. The dual pol radar yesterday morning was just torture.

Bay Ridge must average at least a couple inches more than Long Beach just by virtue of being farther west and staying snow a bit longer in these situations. I would guess you are around 23-24" whereas I am more like 25-26". If Central Park's average is in the 27-28" category, then we must be similar, as at least this winter we're finishing with very similar totals. Definitely think Manhattan averages a bit more than southern Brooklyn though. 

 

We are all at least 200% of average at this point, incredibly. We still have 5-6 more weeks of legitimate snowfall chances to tack onto the totals, and the pattern in late February/first week of March looks great. 

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There was definitely a zone right on the south shore that had sleet/rain very early. I only had about 7" total summing parts 1 and 2, and a ton of rain/sleet in the middle. Places just 10 miles north of me had a foot. The dual pol radar yesterday morning was just torture.

 

Damn that stinks. There were so many areas to the south in Monmouth County NJ that did better. 9-12" from my parents in Holmdel through Freehold.

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Bay Ridge must average at least a couple inches more than Long Beach just by virtue of being farther west and staying snow a bit longer in these situations. I would guess you are around 23-24" whereas I am more like 25-26". If Central Park's average is in the 27-28" category, then we must be similar, as at least this winter we're finishing with very similar totals. Definitely think Manhattan averages a bit more than southern Brooklyn though. 

 

We are all at least 200% of average at this point, incredibly. We still have 5-6 more weeks of legitimate snowfall chances to tack onto the totals, and the pattern in late February/first week of March looks great. 

I always averaged less than Central Park when I lived on 64ST and 12th Ave in Brooklyn...I had 72.3" in 1995-96...23.0" for the blizzard...one of the few times I measured more than KNYC...48.4" in 1993-94 with 9.5" biggest snowfall...I had 8" for Feb. 1995 while KNYC got 11"...

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