NorthShoreWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I meant to post this in the other thread. This is for the 2/15 storm. The delete function does not appear to be working. In that case, WOW about MTP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 02z HRRR is 2 to 4 from Monmouth County into the 5 Boroughs and Nassau County . I`m just so fried , I don't know if it`s right , just letting you guys know what it`s saying . i think the HRRR went out drinking with the GFS tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Ah... totally makes sense with the terrain. I still don't understand. We had screaming NE winds most of the day. It's not like we are in a hole in the ground with some kind of local cold air damming, which is painfully obvious with most other changeover situations. Freezing rain happens here with CAA to keep it going, not because the cold air is slow to erode (as happens often in the interior). I suppose there could be some bubbles of colder air scattered about and maybe we were lucky to persist under one of them. I did see this indicated in a couple of model runs yesterday but paid it no mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lisnow66 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 02z HRRR is 2 to 4 from Monmouth County into the 5 Boroughs and Nassau County . I`m just so fried , I don't know if it`s right , just letting you guys know what it`s saying . Can't see where that would come from. Radar looks like a coating at best in Nassau and even NYC. The HRRR did not do so well with this round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 i think the HRRR went out drinking with the GFS tonight. What did it do wrong? I got my .85 qpf already it was never supposed to snow yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Checking out, folks... exhausted. Made a forecast of 10-15" across NYC from SE to NW and while that will probably verify, it's just about the sloppiest "footer" I can recall. Expecting to wake up with a fresh inch or two, but wouldn't be surprised by a coating or 4" here in Queens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Lol I hear ya..this storm took a toll on our sanity If you told me back in Dec we had a shot at 3 below and 60 inches of snow , I may have sent you a pinky in a shoe box . We raked in Monmouth County this year . We caught every Arctic wave , great ratios well timed blocks . Really rallied all year . So fried with this yes . Sat one last shot and then need to den up for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Can't see where that would come from. Radar looks like a coating at best in Nassau and even NYC. The HRRR did not do so well with this round.Rotating in from sw nj but very slowly..sitting here in a donut hole at the momentMeanwhile allentown is getting close to their record snow depth of 28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Haha I feel you Paul and now er have 1 more to track I cant remember track models for like a month straight...just an insane pattern Great year , we lose one on the back end , stuff happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 3 or 4 hours ago there was talk of 8 to 12 in parts of the area now sounds as if a couple inches will do it.. What happened to all the Dynamic CCB and bands tonight ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Great year , we lose one on the back end , stuff happens I believe 94 had 54 inches in New Brunswick area; the year is referenced in McGreevey's bio as the worst winter he'd ever seen ( who knew 96, 2003, et al was in the future ) when analogs came out I didn't believe them because nothing like 94 with its ice ever occurred again. This year gave it a run, but it still gets the nod for intense cold and the worst ice storm in memory, plus the two mini blizzards. Still, this was one heck of a year. And because this is an obs thread and I don't want to get disciplined it is quiet in Woodbridge with icy conditions from some earlier sleet. Schools is session in the AM. The super did say he might change his mind if we get a lot more snow. So kids in central NJ, do your HW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What did it do wrong? I got my .85 qpf already it was never supposed to snow yet qpf-wise it may have done well. it had me with accumulating snow by 9pm.... 8" total by 1am........ then slashed it to 3".... and starting 2 hours ago. just freezing mist right now. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Patrick-02540 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The sleet was slamming against the window ten minutes ago. Suddenly, I didn't hear it. Thought a low radar return was passing over. Checked radar. Nope, still under 35dbzs. I ran to the deck, turned on the flood lights and lo and behold, HEAVY snow. Accumulating nicely too. Hopefully a couple hours of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 qpf-wise it may have done well. it had me with accumulating snow by 9pm.... 8" total by 1am........ then slashed it to 3".... and starting 2 hours ago. just freezing mist right now. we'll you looked at the snow map 850s were way too warm for snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 500mb low now near ACY, small closed center. Snow still pivoting east through DE but honestly doesn't look that great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 500mb low now near ACY, small closed center. Snow still pivoting east through DE but honestly doesn't look that great.Wow what happened!! We were Looking good for a couple more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It's rebanding on the back side around the pa/nj border. Took a little longer for the cold air to get back in place but this should produced 3-5 area wide Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wow what happened!! We were Looking good for a couple more! IDK-it might enhance some more as it approaches us, but I wouldn't expect anything more than a couple of inches. At least it seems to be on an eastward enough trajectory to hit Nassau County at least. This is no XMAS 2002 CCB band, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Thundersnow in Philly right now. Per the Philly obs thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Models have no clue on this setup, the radar now in no way resembles anything I saw...the system appears also to have more E-NE movement than NE or even NNE as some models showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
christhesnowman Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The center of the low is further south then modeled at this point. It's why it rained for more then most thought but also why these bands will redevelop throughout the whole state of nj and got the northern half plus Yonkers w an additional3-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Models have no clue on this setup, the radar now in no way resembles anything I saw...the system appears also to have more E-NE movement than NE or even NNE as some models showed. Newest HRRR run actually shows this....moving ENE giving us 2-5" Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Models have no clue on this setup, the radar now in no way resembles anything I saw...the system appears also to have more E-NE movement than NE or even NNE as some models showed. I know-I'm kind of surprised by this as models before had the snow consolidating over N NJ and largely moving north from there. Perhaps this can still be a surprise but I was hoping for a more solid snow area instead of this patchy stuff. The N NJ guys hoping for another 8"+ from this will be disappointed in the morning I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Sleeting moderately now..snow starting to mix in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Conditions in Philly under those bands: Good luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Now THATS a band in SEPA http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes edit: expanding, the inner weenie is now getting slightly excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Finally at midnight have a changeover to some snow. About 2 hours later than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Light snow. here in NE NJ (Lodi Bergen Cty) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Light snow. here in NE NJ (Lodi Bergen Cty) And here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DIX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes you can see whats taking shape on radar quite clearly and imo its looking likely that we get 3" atleast Moderate snow 32.0F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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