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2/13/2014 Major Coastal Storm Observations Part 2


Sickman

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People: even an inch of rain on top of about 2.5" liquid equivalent as snow/ice will largely be absorbed by that snowpack, although compression will be significant, making it appear a large part of the snow is "gone."  For example, I had ~8" of snowpack left before this storm that probably contained about 1.4" LE from the 1/21 (~3" left as of 2/3), 2/3 (8" of ~10:1 rato snow), 2/5 (2" sleet and 0.25" ZR for 0.85" LE) and 2/9 (2.5" of 15:1 ratio snow) snow/sleet/ZR events (it was very cold through that whole period, so I'm guessing maybe 1/3 of that melted), which were about 2.1" LE, overall. 

 

Add on today's 1.1" LE as snow/sleet and that gets me my 2.5" LE before the changeover this afternoon. I'm guessing I now have close to 3.5" LE in my snowpack, as the 1+" of today's rain was mostly absorbed.  Sure, in urban areas where much of the roads/parking lots were cleared today, the rain would mostly go down the drain - I'm talking about rain falling on a snowpack.  And when it goes down into the 20s tonight, that 3.5" LE snowpack will be cemented in place (with hopefully a few inches of fresh snow on top).   

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People: even an inch of rain on top of about 2.5" liquid equivalent as snow/ice will largely be absorbed by that snowpack, although compression will be significant, making it appear a large part of the snow is "gone." For example, I had ~8" of snowpack left before this storm that probably contained about 1.4" LE from the 1/21 (~3" left as of 2/3), 2/3 (8" of ~10:1 rato snow), 2/5 (2" sleet and 0.25" ZR for 0.85" LE) and 2/9 (2.5" of 15:1 ratio snow) snow/sleet/ZR events (it was very cold through that whole period, so I'm guessing maybe 1/3 of that melted), which were about 2.1" LE, overall.

Add on today's 1.1" LE as snow/sleet and that gets me my 2.5" LE before the changeover this afternoon. I'm guessing I now have close to 3.5" LE in my snowpack, as the 1+" of today's rain was mostly absorbed. Sure, in urban areas where much of the roads/parking lots were cleared today, the rain would mostly go down the drain - I'm talking about rain falling on a snowpack. And when it goes down into the 20s tonight, that 3.5" LE snowpack will be cemented in place (with hopefully a few inches of fresh snow on top).

Absolutely right, but who wants a cement snowpack?

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My first rule of thumb in forecasting...you can't fight climatology.

 

Usually.  Not for nothing, but we've been doing a pretty good job of fighting it in our neck of the woods today.

 

We have not hit freezing today, although that last shower has us up to 31.8, which is the high for the day.  It's way too close to freezing to be worried about major ice accumulations, but there is a nice glaze out there.  Taken about 15 minutes ago:

 

post-290-0-20115900-1392347360_thumb.jpg

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5.5 inches. 10 miles away had 4 to 5 inches more than me. Big time but very local shaft zone here.

Ended up with 1.5 inches more just the other side of the bay but still much less than the majority of the area. Had a feeling that might happen south of the southern state. I think it was even more like south of sunrise today.

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Usually.  Not for nothing, but we've been doing a pretty good job of fighting it in our neck of the woods today.

I wasn't arguing that you were...the variations in snowfall over short distances today very much validate the principle...

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