REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You just might but this is not a localized event . A lot of the area sees 4 to 8 if you get 10 its not impossible . But I wouldn`t worry about a 50 mile shift west to get you there .The HRRR matches up very well with the radar . This is not a snow squall . The HRRR has Monmouth County in the 6 to 8 . its looks like this will hammer LI too according to the HRRR and its matching up nice currently with the radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Someone Is Gonna Get Raked! These Bands are convective and very slow moving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This is what I alluded to earlier. This isn't South Carolina... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Current 850s per meso Colder than what HRRR depicts it to be currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sure hope it's more then that!! We got nothing this morning.. 5" Most of Monmouth got 8 -9 . 5 is just unlucky HRRR has u in the 6 to 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick5892 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah those lucky SOB's.About time we got a jackpot in one of these coastals! I can't remember the last time I've seen a foot of snow at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 its looks like this will hammer LI too according to the HRRR and its matching up nice currently with the radar Well according to the RAP and other models, a lot (0.25+) of the precip will fall as rain or sleet and not accumulate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This is what I alluded to earlier. You just might but this is not a localized event . A lot of the area sees 4 to 8 if you get 10 its not impossible . But I wouldn`t worry about a 50 mile shift west to get you there .The HRRR matches up very well with the radar . This is not a snow squall . The HRRR has Monmouth County in the 6 to 8 . from what im looking at it looks like a pretty big gradient between western and eastern monmouth. id say maybe as little as 1-3" for extreme eastern areas to as much as 4-8" extreme western sections. looks like nw nj may get the brunt according to radar trends and most modeling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well according to the RAP and other models, a lot (0.25+) of the precip will fall as rain or sleet and not accumulate but it will cool and the rates will be insane yet again. the HRRR also shows a good bit of lightning as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I live in Belford section of middletown.. Bout a mile west of the raritan bay. Had 5" in my back yard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Well according to the RAP and other models, a lot (0.25+) of the precip will fall as rain or sleet and not accumulate Some of the precip will be sleet(sleet does accumulate). 925 temps and surface are below freezing. Currently I'm at 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 but it will cool and the rates will be insane yet again. the HRRR also shows a good bit of lightning as well In this case though, it's not really a matter of heavier precip cooling the column. It will be a few hours after the precip starts before turning to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This isn't South Carolina... I was talking about how the band set up in E TN when it was modeled to be in upstate SC and the piedmont of NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This isn't South Carolina... You're right. .. But it's interesting that the deform band had wound up further west then all guidance was showing there. Could it be the same here? Perhaps. .. But ccb events are always tricky and are always nowcasting requirements. Id say a general 3 to 6 from West of the de River and n of ttn out onto the west end of LI and them more North into the Hudson River Valley. However there can and certainly will be more in certain bands over the area and guarantee someone in the i287 corridor reaches the double digits additional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I live in Belford section of middletown.. Bout a mile west of the raritan bay. Had 5" in my back yard Colts Neck , Manalapan , Lincroft Marlboro were all 8 to 9 . HRRR is less at E Monmouth more like 4 to 6 . Good Luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Now this band doesn't bother me as much. The plane for my flight is en route to JFK and will land in less than 3 hrs. It should be good to go tomorrow morning at 10:15am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 but it will cool and the rates will be insane yet again. the HRRR also shows a good bit of lightning as well Look down in southeastern VA and the precip pivoting around there-that's what we have to hope hits us later as the initial band might be too warm for snow. Right now it appears to be headed more NNE than easterly, so it's quite possible it only swipes western Long Island and really nails NJ more. I'd watch for radar trends now more than models. I'm not surprised they are shifting west a little-like I said I wasn't getting burned by this storm again. The low may also open up again, making for not as impressive snow banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sure would like another foot of snow tonight and then get some more Friday-Saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 20z HRRR has more snow once again throughout Northern NJ .. now showing total snow amounts of around 1 foot from Central NJ through Newark and northward. I love the HRRR and as a short term model it has become extremely impressive...but I just have a really hard time believing this is possible. Not only does it seem too far east with the heaviest banding, but I simply think it will be hard to achieve those totals despite the convective nature of the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Now this band doesn't bother me as much. The plane for my flight is en route to JFK and will land in less than 3 hrs. It should be good to go tomorrow morning at 10:15am. Ah you`re gona make it . Nice work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You're right. .. But it's interesting that the deform band had wound up further west then all guidance was showing there. Could it be the same here? Perhaps. .. But ccb events are always tricky and are always nowcasting requirements. Id say a general 3 to 6 from West of the de River and n of ttn out onto the west end of LI and them more North into the Hudson River Valley. However there can and certainly will be more in certain bands over the area and guarantee someone in the i287 corridor reaches the double digits additional. I agree..just wishful thinking as I'm in Suffolk county and feel good currently looking at the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 20z HRRR has more snow once again throughout Northern NJ .. now showing total snow amounts of around 1 foot from Central NJ through Newark and northward. I love the HRRR and as a short term model it has become extremely impressive...but I just have a really hard time believing this is possible. Not only does it seem too far east with the heaviest banding, but I simply think it will be hard to achieve those totals despite the convective nature of the precipitation. so from what you see is that LI will probably miss the heaviest action and maybe a few inches correct john? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 20z HRRR has more snow once again throughout Northern NJ .. now showing total snow amounts of around 1 foot from Central NJ through Newark and northward. I love the HRRR and as a short term model it has become extremely impressive...but I just have a really hard time believing this is possible. Not only does it seem too far east with the heaviest banding, but I simply think it will be hard to achieve those totals despite the convective nature of the precipitation. I like the 18-24" SW of Toms River. LOL. It is typically overdone precip total wise I feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I actually think you may get negative inches. Geez give it a rest. nice! mother nature takes it from me and gives it to earthlight land! found my new sig thanks alot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 21z HRRR adjusted NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 nice! mother nature takes it from me and gives it to earthlight land! :LOL found my new sig thanks alot haha i do approve of this! Anyway hopefully we all luck out with at least a nice bolt of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 The 20z HRRR has more snow once again throughout Northern NJ .. now showing total snow amounts of around 1 foot from Central NJ through Newark and northward. I love the HRRR and as a short term model it has become extremely impressive...but I just have a really hard time believing this is possible. Not only does it seem too far east with the heaviest banding, but I simply think it will be hard to achieve those totals despite the convective nature of the precipitation. 100% agree. A lot of people are hugging the HRRR because it shows them getting the most snow. I don't buy it either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 21z HRRR adjusted NWDidn't the 20 just come outEdit : sorry....21 is out...but it nails NE NJ...didn't shift NW to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 21z HRRR adjusted NW Not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiehardFF Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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