goldalex Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You're east! Knew that from before, but helps to have confirmation... I think everything is running too far south and will trend north!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 You're east! Knew that from before, but helps to have confirmation... Now you're just showboating. Bad sportsmanship Richard Sherman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I am feeling like nowcasting will be the best solution... SR models are bouncing and the dynamic cooling may not be picked up on too much. The entire area is looking like it will get a good amount of precip. The convection in the delmarva is also good to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Now you're just showboating. Bad sportsmanship Richard Sherman. He's gotta be good friends with A-Rod too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 No need for locations... it's so easy to deduce where people are from based on their posts... gonna guess you are in NWNJ? Lol. Nope, central Montgomery county. But if you think that widespread 1"-2" QPF amounts are going to verify in NJ, be my guest. There's no way. I can't see one town getting 20", and one town 20 miles west getting 5". I just think the HRRR is going nuts with QPF. And I do think the area of decent snows will be wider and a bit less localized. Hence my support for the RAP. However, I don't think either model has much of a clue of what's going to happen here. They are both shifting wildly from run to run. Gonna be a fun night.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 judging by the radar down in OBX there is going to be a boatload of moisture passing over NYC/LI on the backend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 judging by the radar down in OBX there is going to be a boatload of moisture passing over NYC/LI on the backend Just depends on what is snow and what is mix...if the rates are heavy it will probably be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I like the moisture feed coming from the Atlantic, but I'm more concerned about temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Honestly, the RAP's resolution isn't even as fine as the NAM's is (13KM to 12KM). The HRRR has a 3KM resolution, which I think makes it better for mesoscale banding and such. I've had great success with the HRRR while storm chasing in the Plains, though of course this is a different beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 its pretty clear looking at the radar the deform zone is going to set up west of NYC...maybe the metro region will get side swiped with 1-2"Tremendous value here , keep up the good work . Why not take an approach and blend all the models and see if you come up with a solution of NYC getting 1 to 2 . If you do please come back and share it with us . Maybe Upton MT holly and the rest of us just aren`t as smart as you . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I like the moisture feed coming from the Atlantic, but I'm more concerned about temperatures. dynamic cooling my friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Current 850s per meso Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Honestly, the RAP's resolution isn't even as fine as the NAM's is (13KM to 12KM). The HRRR has a 3KM resolution, which I think makes it better for mesoscale banding and such. I've had great success with the HRRR while storm chasing in the Plains, though of course this is a different beast. Second this. HRRR has been spot on today with all the banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Just depends on what is snow and what is mix...if the rates are heavy it will probably be snow Current SPC has 925 temps below zero, but 850s and 700s are warm. Might be a mix to start, but mostly snow as insane dynamics will be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Radar is blossoming in CNJ. Rain for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 dynamic cooling my friend There has to be cooling first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I am feeling like nowcasting will be the best solution... SR models are bouncing and the dynamic cooling may not be picked up on too much. The entire area is looking like it will get a good amount of precip. The convection in the delmarva is also good to see What I hear: "Blah blah blah ... I want more snow but some models show me getting fringed ... the term 'nowcasting' basically covers all bases and 'good amount of precip' allows me to not get disappointed with 1" or 6"..." ______________ Sorry guys, been a long day at work and I've been up since 4 - that said, you can basically located precisely one's location prior to any snow event by their interpretation of the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Current SPC has 925 temps below zero, but 850s and 700s are warm. Might be a mix to start, but mostly snow as insane dynamics will be in play. Dynamics don't really cool the mid levels, you need CAA advection to accomplish that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Mt Holly updated totals too. 18-24" for the 287 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 peak down south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 peak down south 2-13 radar10.gif Whomover actually gets under the heaviest of the banding tonight could exceed morning totals. No wonder some models are spitting out such high totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 im stoked I think I have a pretty good shot at getting into that banding from the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looking at the radar images makes it seem like it will take something along the lines of a euro track and RAP. NW NJ absolutely hammered with an additional 10-12" and a few inches for us here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This is also what happened down south when sc was supposed to get plastered and it wound up 50 miles out further west. This is what I alluded to earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looking at the radar images makes it seem like it will take something along the lines of a euro track and RAP. NW NJ absolutely hammered with an additional 10-12" and a few inches for us here Yeah those lucky SOB's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 What's opinions on Monmouth county tonight? Is 4-8" far fetched? I would guess 2-3" but hopefully I'm wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looking at the radar images makes it seem like it will take something along the lines of a euro track and RAP. NW NJ absolutely hammered with an additional 10-12" and a few inches for us here You just might but this is not a localized event . A lot of the area sees 4 to 8 if you get 10 its not impossible . But I wouldn`t worry about a 50 mile shift west to get you there .The HRRR matches up very well with the radar . This is not a snow squall . The HRRR has Monmouth County in the 6 to 8 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I would guess 2-3" but hopefully I'm wrong I'm liking a 4-6 inch call for me in Union County, NJ. I think we'll get in on a heavy shot with a band even if it's not over as long as perhaps just to the N/NW.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nick5892 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah those lucky SOB's.About time we got a jackpot in one of these coastals! I can't remember the last time I've seen a foot of snow at my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Sure hope it's more then that!! We got nothing this morning.. 5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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