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2/13/2014 Major Coastal Storm Observations Part 2


Sickman

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Upton

 

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND WHERE THE
HEAVIEST AXIS OF DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN SETS UP REMAINS A WILD
CARD...BUT EARLY INDICATION ARE THAT IT MAY SET UP A BIT FARTHER
EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SHOWS
A ROBUST AXIS OF PCPN WITH OVER A HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE TNGT. FIRST CHCS WITH THETAE
ADVECTION...SECOND ROUND WITH H5 LOW PASSING OVER THE CWA.

WINDS STILL ON TRACK FOR 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS ERN ZONES WITH A 970S
LOW NEAR MARTHAS VINEYARD AT 6Z FRI

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CCB looks great thus far for the tri-state through LI. Dont think the LP will have a problem closing off @500mb to produce some more prolific snowfall rates for several hours tonight as it slides to our east under LI. Im going to say we're going to conservatively pick up atleast another 3-6" based on the HRRR depiction

People who get into heaviest bands could get 7 or 8..wasnt there another .75 coming though as snow tonight i thought i read which would support those totals.

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12.5" in Smithtown as of 12:00PM.  It just flipped to mostly sleet for the first time.  The snow stake has been stuck around 21" for the past hour despite the heavy snowfall, so the snow is compacting now.  Temp is down to 29.8 (down 2 degrees in the past 45 minutes).

about the same here in Northport, still snowing with ice pellets

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What an epic event we're having here today. Picked up 10" before the dry slot with minimal rain. Most guidance had my area between 4- 6" until yesterday. Lost power for 5 minutes and these winds remind me of 3-93. What. Storm. Hopefully this one can deliver the CCB goods tonight.

58.4" on the season...epic

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Upton

 

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

THE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND WHERE THE

HEAVIEST AXIS OF DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN SETS UP REMAINS A WILD

CARD...BUT EARLY INDICATION ARE THAT IT MAY SET UP A BIT FARTHER

EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SHOWS

A ROBUST AXIS OF PCPN WITH OVER A HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE TNGT. FIRST CHCS WITH THETAE

ADVECTION...SECOND ROUND WITH H5 LOW PASSING OVER THE CWA.

WINDS STILL ON TRACK FOR 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS ERN ZONES WITH A 970S

LOW NEAR MARTHAS VINEYARD AT 6Z FRI

 

 

Giggity . 

 

 

Selden, central LI currently 35 degrees, slightly warmer than forecast with a sleet/rain mix.  Winds are still howling outside

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Upton

.SHORT TERM /NOON TODAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...

THE TIMING OF CHANGEOVER BACK TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND WHERE THE

HEAVIEST AXIS OF DEFORMATION ZONE PCPN SETS UP REMAINS A WILD

CARD...BUT EARLY INDICATION ARE THAT IT MAY SET UP A BIT FARTHER

EAST ACROSS CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. THE 00Z AND 06Z NAM SHOWS

A ROBUST AXIS OF PCPN WITH OVER A HALF INCH OF LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

ISOLD TSTMS POSSIBLE TNGT. FIRST CHCS WITH THETAE

ADVECTION...SECOND ROUND WITH H5 LOW PASSING OVER THE CWA.

WINDS STILL ON TRACK FOR 45 MPH GUSTS ACROSS ERN ZONES WITH A 970S

LOW NEAR MARTHAS VINEYARD AT 6Z FRI

Looks like me and you get another 6" plus tonight with some thundersnow possible paul.

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What an epic event we're having here today. Picked up 10" before the dry slot with minimal rain. Most guidance had my area between 4- 6" until yesterday. Lost power for 5 minutes and these winds remind me of 3-93. What. Storm. Hopefully this one can deliver the CCB goods tonight.

58.4" on the season...epic

That was such a weird and localized warm push, I don't think I remember one like this, ever. You're 50 miles southwest of me and yet have double the snow I received today and barely mixed while probably half or more of the front end here was sleet or rain.

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Looks like me and you get another 6" plus tonight with some thundersnow possible paul.

I'd be very careful on that. We have to see if the low closes off again in the right spot and generates the precip needed for us. Also, the temps have to crash in order to support it. Already got burned once with this storm, won't get burned again.

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I'd be very careful on that. We have to see if the low closes off again in the right spot and generates the precip needed for us. Also, the temps have to crash in order to support it. Already got burned once with this storm, won't get burned again.

I had 8.5" here in Bay Ridge...surprised you got so little.

 

Thinking 3-6" more tonight, perhaps 4-8" if things go well. H5 has already closed off, and deformation banding has already developed on radar, so no worries there.

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That was such a weird and localized warm push, I don't think I remember one like this, ever. You're 50 miles southwest of me and yet have double the snow I received today and barely mixed while probably half or more of the front end here was sleet or rain.

It was incredible, 1/2 dollar sized snow flakes were falling while areas to my north west and the south shore of Connecticut was sleeting.

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I'd be very careful on that. We have to see if the low closes off again in the right spot and generates the precip needed for us. Also, the temps have to crash in order to support it. Already got burned once with this storm, won't get burned again.

Geez...I'm always doubtful but the latest RAP just out now gives NENJ/NYC an additional 5-10" of snow TONIGHT

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That was such a weird and localized warm push, I don't think I remember one like this, ever. You're 50 miles southwest of me and yet have double the snow I received today and barely mixed while probably half or more of the front end here was sleet or rain.

7 here and it was painfull to watch (and shovel) nothing worse then being soaking wet while shoveling. Having lived in lb for 7 years I know you did even worse

At least we were right about north of us as we kept sayi thump thump only to get burned burned locally

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