earthlight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:22 AM, SirReefTokeAlot said: WOW! this storm just gets more awesome We'll go through 4 moderate risk events this summer without getting a single 1/4" hail report within 50 miles of this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:22 AM, Christopher said: Rain changed to snow suburbs of Phil. This is why everyone needs to CALM DOWN. Sheesh... the process is taking place. People think that everything is supposed to happen in an instant. Its been raining for less than an hour and the CCB is a bust lol? Not even 9pm yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:18 AM, ScottB said: Huh? Pressure falls look to be geared NNE. This will go towards the Island and futher out east. Yeah, sure, it wont be near the BM, but certainly not riding the coast. it stalled...Starting to move again now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:23 AM, earthlight said: What exactly are you talking about?I think he means the rain will cut down on totals big time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:22 AM, earthlight said: 1/4" hail reported in Allamuchy NJ via a trained spotter what's left? fish falling from the skies? don't laugh it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:12 AM, PB GFI said: This center is going nowhere near the BM . The center is kissing the NJ shore all the way KNYC . Never made the jump NE infrared puts it like south of philly on the delmarva Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:22 AM, PB GFI said: Looking at the radar you can see some dry air right on the NJ coast , it didn't make the jog fast enough . So when I say meaningful accumulation In my mind gone are the bigger numbers I wouldn't mind getting the bigger amounts but tbh my civilized head is hoping they stay to the NW where theres more rural areas. Theres absolutely no where to put the snow here and cars are going to be stranded in their parking spots for the coming days. If we got another 8-12" it would be an utter disaster lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:22 AM, earthlight said: 1/4" hail reported in Allamuchy NJ via a trained spotter Yea you can see it on the NY CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:20 AM, JetsPens87 said: Everyone RELAX and let the process take place. Its been raining/tainting for about 40 minutes and people are saying that it's a "bust" again. The accumulating snow was ALWAYS supposed to start occurring again after 9-10 pm. Sheesh voice of reason... thank god... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:23 AM, earthlight said: What exactly are you talking about? Sorry i was just interpreting some of the analysis on this thread. Nevermind . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 For everyone freaking out - Best lift wont occur until the storm pulls away. According to what I've been looking at, it look no different than what the models are progging. I'd take a compromise and say WNPA, CNNJ, NNJ, and points east get hit. The storm hasn't even pivoted over us yet, calm down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 i knew this panic was going to happen...smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Rain falling here in Carteret NJ, temperature starting to fall a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoastKU Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Weenie suicide watch is a component of every large storm. You always have someone crying into a "melting" snow pile! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:23 AM, earthlight said: We'll go through 4 moderate risk events this summer without getting a single 1/4" hail report within 50 miles of this area. Lmao right? This winter made up for the lackluster of a summer we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is what my one concern was regarding the track of the mid level centers..the 850mb low is too far west to get precipitation to change to snow right now and the warm layer is nested near there still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 90% of us here have snow amounts of 10" or greater so far today, and could add at least another couple of inches, more from the city west. This has been an awesome event-pipe down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:26 AM, kevbo81 said: i knew this panic was going to happen...smh The worst thing is that people expected snow to fall with this precipitation with the 850mb low over NW Delaware. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:26 AM, kevbo81 said: i knew this panic was going to happen...smh It always does... the 700 mb best lift isn't anywhere near us yet lol... The best lift is supposed to be when the 700mb low is over us and then when it passes us. Its still over EVA.... everyone is freaking out for nothing lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:22 AM, PB GFI said: Looking at the radar you can see some dry air right on the NJ coast , it didn't make the jog fast enough . So when I say meaningful accumulation In my mind gone are the bigger numbers So you think Upton should drop the 4-8" WSWs for NYC and points east based off one HRRR run and the current radar depiction? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:27 AM, earthlight said: This is what my one concern was regarding the track of the mid level centers..the 850mb low is too far west to get precipitation to change to snow right now and the warm layer is nested near there still. 850mb.gif Once we get the 850mb low to be east of our longitude, we'll get some nice snows, but I think our window for nice snows may only be around a few hours at most. But we can still pile up pretty quickly in a 4-hour period...look at the DC region right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:29 AM, JetsPens87 said: It always does... the 700 mb best lift isn't anywhere near us yet lol... The best lift is supposed to be when the 700mb low is over us and then when it passes us. Its still over EVA.... everyone is freaking out for nothing lol. I guess I can only say so many times that we have to watch what's over eastern VA and the initial slug of moisture will be rain or sleet because of the warm layer above. What's over eastern VA will hopefully make for a nice few hours for most, and by then 850s will be plenty cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:24 AM, JetsPens87 said: This is why everyone needs to CALM DOWN. Sheesh... the process is taking place. People think that everything is supposed to happen in an instant. Its been raining for less than an hour and the CCB is a bust lol? Not even 9pm yet. My point was , that the bigger numbers were gone for me at NYC , I wasn`t sure if I could take the8 to 10 off table because I didn't buy the 22z HRRR. You can see at 850 - its so far west there`s dry air into SNJ So for me ,I think we snow , but NOT to the extent I thought at 6 pm . It`s not about the pivot if the center gets too far N . just MO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:28 AM, earthlight said: The worst thing is that people expected snow to fall with this precipitation with the 850mb low over NW Delaware. AFD from NWS covers it also... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 east movement has commenced http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DOX-N0Q-1-24 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Sleet now mixing on with rain here the Column is cooling down.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ScottB Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looking at the 925 - Looks like areas are below freezing. 850s are still warm though. Much like said above, once the 850 pulls east, we'll get into some pretty rapid cooling if I'm analyzing this correctly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:31 AM, forkyfork said: east movement has commenced http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DOX-N0Q-1-24 it's more noticeable if you speed up the loop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevbo81 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 On 2/14/2014 at 1:33 AM, ScottB said: Looking at the 925 - Looks like areas are below freezing. 850s are still warm though. Much like said above, once the 850 pulls east, we'll get into some pretty rapid cooling if I'm analyzing this correctly. i'm with ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NWS Upton Twitter acct says ' Chg over to snow a lil later now 11p -12a' so relax & hold your horses. If we get to 2-4 hrs at 2 in an hr you do the math! stop complaining for Gosh's sake we got 7-15 in 1st rd , slotted to get more tonight and another storm tomorrow & we r over 50 inches for season. some calm would do all good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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