HKY_WX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 the models anticipate radiational cooling, cloud cover, snowcover, etc. So i doubt they will be that off. the only hope i could see is if you get under a strong band and it snows so hard it drags down the cold air (aka dynamical cooling). we shall see. it will be cool to see some flakes flying. just pretend the snow on the ground is b/c of the snow falling lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm gonna be in trouble with temps sitting at 55 now and clouds rolling in from the west. I'll probably be cloudy by dark. From here atm its high clouds. But with dps in the teens and snow pack could fall quickly tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 From here atm its high clouds. But with dps in the teens and snow pack could fall quickly tonight. well actually since I said that sun is back out (it was fading behind high clouds) looks nice and clear now... my DP is 29 right now temp 55.8 torch!!!! lol maybe it will stay clear for a few hours? I can not believe how much it has melted today, there is bare spots in my yard on sunny side, if sun don't hurry up go down I'm going lose a 19 inch snowpack in one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 His snow map has RDU at 2/3 This is a nice looking system, but temps need to drop tonight big time, if we can get to under 40 by midnight and somehow to 35-36F when precip starts someone might see 1-2" under a heavy band. Needs to stay clear tonight, if it clouds up you can forget it. Clouds are already moving in. That's what's going to kill us. I just don't see how we get 2 to 3 inches of snow, if any snow at all. Temps were much warmer today than forecasted. It's going to have to drop big time for it to be cold enough for the snow to start int he morning like WxSouth said. RAH has it starting in the afternoon after rain in the morning. When it will be cold enough for snow seems to be the big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Link to said map please? It's on his pay site along with his thoughts on why it could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDUBRDU Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 RAH says rain... SATURDAY: THE CLIPPER SURFACE WAVE WILL DEEPEN AS IT MOVES QUICKLYENE THROUGH CENTRAL AND EASTERN NC...BEFORE BOMBING AS IT TURNS NEUP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST...BENEATH THE STRONGLY DYNAMIC ANDINCREASINGLY NEGATIVELY-TILTED TROUGH ALOFT. IN A SIMILAR SYNOPTICPATTERN AND RADAR PRESENTATION AS THE MID-UPPER LOW ON THU...THOGHON A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...A DEFORMATION BAND WILL DEVELOPON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW...AND SUBSEQUENTLYPIVOT EASTWARD THROUGH CENTRAL NC THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. BASED ONTHE HIGH BIAS DISPLAYED WITH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS BY THE NWPGUIDANCE FOR THE EVENT FROM THU...WILL FOLLOW THE MORE SUBDUEDCONSENSUS OF THE 12Z ECMWF/NAM OF AROUND ONE QUARTER INCH STORMTOTAL RAIN. P-TYPE SHOULD INDEED BE JUST THAT - RAIN - OWING TO AMILD AND RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER THAT SHOULD COMPLETELY MELTSNOWFLAKES GENERATED IN...AND FALLING FROM...A COLD/BELOW FREEZINGAND STEEP LAPSE RATE-BEARING LAYER ALOFT. THERE IS JUST THESLIGHTEST OF CHANCES OF A FEW WET SNOW FLAKES MIXING IN ON THE VERYBACK SIDE OF THE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT AROUND15Z...BUT THIS PROBABILITY IS TOO REMOTE FOR MENTION IN THEFORECAST...GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 50SWEST TO EAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I just don't see how we get 2 to 3 inches of snow, if any snow at all. Temps were much warmer today than forecasted. It's going to have to drop big time for it to be cold enough for the snow to start int he morning like WxSouth said. RAH has it starting in the afternoon after rain in the morning. When it will be cold enough for snow seems to be the big difference. I agree, not likely any accumulating snow, may see flakes though, I am more excited about the 60-70F coming next week :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 One thing we do have going for us is the timing. We should be able to cool overnight before the clouds move in. It seems like we usually get screwed by the timing with these clippers, like with the one in mid-January when clouds moved in at about 2 PM, or right at peak heating during the afternoon. I'm not expecting a flake IMBY, though. I'm not sure if I've seen more than an inch from a clipper in my area since 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WxSouth must see something noone else is seeing. Rain with a few flakes at the end is a lot different than 2 to 3 inches of accumulating snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Brick I dont how come raleigh is saying that starts late morning to afternoon when most models bring the precip in around 9z(4am) and 12z(7am) and being a clipper which its expected to slow down clippers are typically faster by a couple hours. But looking at WV the S/W is really diving through AR/MO and the 850 0c line is dropping SE through TN,KY and frosty I cant believe how warm it got too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Link to said map please? You have to pay for it. We try not to post paid maps especially from some who spends considerable time forecasting for this specific area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Robert is one of the best Met's around, But keep in mind nobody is right all the time, he may very well bust, if so it's not his first and want be his last... But I'll take his forecasting for me every time!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'll go ahead and cash out with the latest NAM clown map. Notice the tiny dark green dot over mby I can possibly see some precip redeveloping north and east of Spartanburg, or possibly around union, but not in a million years will this set up bring snow to western upstate. This is down slopping all the way, which means drying off and warming up. NC guys, what a week for all of you, def makes me want to move that way. That would have been a dream week for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WXSouth is on crack here. He is one of the best and when he has thoughts on a particular event we listen closely. He is right most of the time. As Frosty said he could be wrong but I will not bet against him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looking at the radar, I can see some bright-banding showing up over northern Miss and west Tenn. Surface temps are in the low-mid 40's in those areas right now, but it is snowing aloft. Will be interesting to watch this unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I can possibly see some precip redeveloping north and east of Spartanburg, or possibly around union, but not in a million years will this set up bring snow to western upstate. This is down slopping all the way, which means drying off and warming up. NC guys, what a week for all of you, def makes me want to move that way. That would have been a dream week for me.no downsloping with a negative tilted trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Honestly, I'm not expecting much tomorrow beside some rain/snow, BUT anytime precip falls behind the 540dm line, I pay close attention....if you get a strong bout of precip it WILL drag the cold air down. I'd be really surprised to see all rain, but also at the same to see all snow. I guess we won't know until tomorrow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 well NWS took snow out of my forecast altogether. TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. RAIN LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOWS IN THEMID 30S. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. CHANCE OF RAIN 70 PERCENT..SATURDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN IN THE MORNING...THEN SUNNYIN THE AFTERNOON. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S.NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OFRAIN 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bevo Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 no downsloping with a negative tilted trough. Correct. The problem for the western upstate (SC) is in fact, being too far west. We won't be relevant to the orientation. This movie is getting old. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Correct. The problem for the western upstate (SC) is in fact, being too far west. We won't be relevant to the orientation. This movie is getting old. Agreed! This will skip over us with a few raindrops, then redevelop over Gaffney and CLT , and give them a hammering 2 inch snow after a start of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 No, not Van Denton, but he's good.....he also graduated a couple of years before I did.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looking at current radar, it does look like a clipper on steroids! On of the strongest I've seen in a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Negative, Ghost Rider. We're still diggin' out. Gimme a minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wilkesdud? How did you get back in ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 No, not Van Denton, but he's good.....he also graduated a couple of years before I did.... Don't even bother with him. He's just trollin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Correct. The problem for the western upstate (SC) is in fact, being too far west. We won't be relevant to the orientation. This movie is getting old. I'm no expert, but if this is a clipper then it has to come through the mountains to get here. The flow from the mtns will automatically result in down sloping. I can remember getting snow from a clipper only once in my lifetime, that was a few days after blizzard of 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Agreed! This will skip over us with a few raindrops, then redevelop over Gaffney and CLT , and give them a hammering 2 inch snow after a start of rain This! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It's not wilkesdud. It's probably BrierCreek or one of his drones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tony Sisk Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Correct. The problem for the western upstate (SC) is in fact, being too far west. We won't be relevant to the orientation. This movie is getting old. If you have been in the upstate as long as I have...you know that clippers very seldom produce for us. Those mountains are like a giant wall. Those mountains suck out all the energy before it gets over to us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Correct. The problem for the western upstate (SC) is in fact, being too far west. We won't be relevant to the orientation. This movie is getting old. you guys have been getting screwed over a lot latelywho is 10 below? what a horrible poster! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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