superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah, the NAM is trying to suck us in. 850s look maybe okay for rain-to-snow, but the boundary layer below there needs a lot of work. Nevertheless, if the NAM is picking up on something and trends further south, maybe we can be surprised. I'm not counting on it, though. FWIW, the 00z Hi-Res NAM looks even further south and stronger. If BL temperatures were okay (I don't believe they are), N AL probably gets a few inches. 2m temperatures are awful, though, and surface Tds are in the mid to upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yeah, the NAM is trying to suck us in. 850s look maybe okay for rain-to-snow, but the boundary layer below there needs a lot of work. Nevertheless, if the NAM is picking up on something and trends further south, maybe we can be surprised. I'm not counting on it, though. I think by now we are close enough with really no EPS members on board even for the Upstate that it's not going to work out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think by now we are close enough with really no EPS members on board even for the Upstate that it's not going to work out. The EPS mean for KGSO is about 0.2-0.3" SN. Looks like there's only a handful of members that are buying anything. You know, the Euro itself was much more interesting for N NC, though. The op actually looked like a chance at rain-to-snow at first glance, with 2m temperatures in the mid 30s falling to near freezing. In the end, it probably wouldn't work out, and it was pretty dry. The clown map spit out 0.1" SN here, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Do note that it shows decent precip over RWI and PGV with cold 850s and 925s crashing as well. I have no meteorological reasoning, but I feel strongly that RWI will get 2" out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Thermal profiles could be off on the nam atleast at the surface. I seriously doubt it will be that warm with lingering snow pack and doubt all of it melts tomorrow. Tomorrow night should have some radiational cooling before the clouds move in. Which actually it may be a couple hours earlier than what the model shows still appears around sunrise Saturday when the precip moves in. Atleast its more consolidated with the s/w energy at the h5 level from 18,12 z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Thermal profiles could be off on the nam atleast at the surface. I seriously doubt it will be that warm with lingering snow pack and doubt all of it melts tomorrow. Tomorrow night should have some radiational cooling before the clouds move in. Which actually it may be a couple hours earlier than what the model shows still appears around sunrise Saturday when the precip moves in. Atleast its more consolidated with the s/w energy at the h5 level from 18,12 z. That's assuming it ever gets below freezing tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It will get below freezing... winds have shifted more to westerly direction and dps are starting to fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 To bad we don't have some fresh cold air around, with that vort track on the 0z GFS that should produce 2-4". It's a great looking track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 To bad we don't have some fresh cold air around, with that vort track on the 0z GFS that should produce 2-4". It's a great looking track. You have the precip, we have the cold. So it goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Quite a handoff with surface low's on the GFS... 1002 mb low in SW Virginia at 30 shifts to a 998mb at Goldsboro @ 36. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 To bad we don't have some fresh cold air around, with that vort track on the 0z GFS that should produce 2-4". It's a great looking track. It will create its own cold air. --------------------------------- Seriously, it should be a nice 1/4"-1/2" rainfall with temperatures in the mid-30s. The GFS hammers Boston, so it's probably a legit solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 You have the precip, we have the cold. So it goes...thats the way it use works in the mtns. Always worried about qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 thats the way it use works in the mtns. Always worried about qpf. Yep...looks like it could be a nice little event from Asheville north though. For a clipper an inch for Asheville would be pretty good, and the models seem to be pointing to that as a definite possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 That's assuming it ever gets below freezing tonight. 25f currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Well NWS did just what I expected this morning, all but took snow out of forecast. last night said 1-2 inches possible! But nada now. BL temps no good.... .TODAY...SUNNY THIS MORNING...THEN PARTLY SUNNY WITH A SLIGHTCHANCE OF RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE MID 40S. WEST WINDSAROUND 10 MPH THIS MORNING...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE. CHANCEOF RAIN 20 PERCENT..TONIGHT...A CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE EVENING...THEN RAIN WITH SNOWLIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT. LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. LOWS INTHE LOWER 30S. SOUTH WINDS AROUND 10 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATIONNEAR 100 PERCENT..SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SNOW AND RAIN IN THEMORNING. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPHWITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 50 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 well this could be interesting lol. steady light rain and showers over night, low of 27* - this has ended up being an unbelievable winter starting early january through mid feb. even if we do get just rain, with so much still on the ground and a refreeze tonight tomorrow morning could be awfully icy again. at least its saturday. this week has turned into a 6 day weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z good old NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z GFS Probably precip already gone before temps crash? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 12z good old NAM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think a lot of people in the triad and RDU and eastern NC and Va. might get a surprise snow tonight and tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think a lot of people in the triad and RDU and eastern NC and Va. might get a surprise snow tonight and tomorrow. I wish man, but we look to be cooking at the surface. Guess it'll depend on how deep that layer is and precip rates and sun angle and all that jazz. Man, if we just had a nice big arctic high right about now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I wish man, but we look to be cooking at the surface. Guess it'll depend on how deep that layer is and precip rates and sun angle and all that jazz. Man, if we just had a nice big arctic high right about now.... No doubt it starts as rain but will probably change over late tonight... Take what I say with a huge grain of salt (which I'm sure you do)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA433 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014GAZ001>009-011>016-019>021-030-041-142145-DADE-WALKER-CATOOSA-WHITFIELD-MURRAY-FANNIN-GILMER-UNION-TOWNS-CHATTOOGA-GORDON-PICKENS-DAWSON-LUMPKIN-WHITE-FLOYD-BARTOW-CHEROKEE-POLK-HARALSON-433 AM EST FRI FEB 14 2014...LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA TONIGHT...A CLIPPER-LIKE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE MIDWESTAND ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA LATE THIS AFTERNOON ANDTONIGHT. LIGHT RAIN WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD ACROSS NORTH GEORGIALATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS CENTRAL GEORGIA TONIGHT. THEPRECIPITATION WILL END BY SATURDAY MORNING.THE RAIN WILL BECOME MIXED WITH AND CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW ACROSSPARTS OF NORTH GEORGIA THIS EVENING...GENERALLY NORTH OF A LINEFROM BUCHANAN...TO CANTON...TO HELEN. AT THIS TIME ONLY A DUSTINGIS EXPECTED IN THESE AREAS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FOR ELEVATIONSOF 2000 FEET OR HIGHER IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS WHERE 1 TO 2INCHES OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE.MOTORISTS ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA SHOULD USE CAUTION TONIGHT AND BEPREPARED FOR PATCHY SLICK SPOTS ON ROADS...ESPECIALLY BRIDGES ANDFOR THOSE TRAVELING INTO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHEASTMOUNTAINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WXSOUTH @WxSouth 36s tonight/SatAM system deeper in Carolinas, VA. Will be ending as snow in piedmont Carolinas, VA. Working on snowmap #snow #vawx #ncwx #scwx Expand Collapse Reply Retweet Retweeted Delete Favorite Favorited Embed Tweet Report Tweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 No doubt it starts as rain but will probably change over late tonight... Take what I say with a huge grain of salt (which I'm sure you do)! Haha! You may be right. I could definitely see it ending as a little snow. It's warm out here now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Haha! You may be right. I could definitely see it ending as a little snow. It's warm out here now though. I'm at 53 I never seen after a big storm get this warm the next day I had a low of 25 this morning. with this much snowpack I had 19 inches, never would have believed it would get out of mid 40s? EDIT: RDU might get the most snow out of this one outside the mountains! maybe 1-3 or 2-4 but that's just a guess. lol If that slp deepens quick of sc coast tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderwolf Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What does the EURO say? That's all that matters. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEGa Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 wow, its melting but only 44 here. finally got out for a quick drive. i was surprised to see quite a few trees and large limbs scattered around....but it would make sense since the power was knocked out only have rain in the forecast here but a low in the 20s. maybe it will get interesting. that snow map has up to .5" imby. would be wild to have the third snow of the week and the second snow on top of snow within a week, here in n ga Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isohume Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 only have rain in the forecast here but a low in the 20s. maybe it will get interesting. that snow map has up to .5" imby. would be wild to have the third snow of the week and the second snow on top of snow within a week, here in n ga What's your location? The fcst for Clarkesville is -ra/sn likely before 2am...then chance -sn afterward. Little accums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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