WidreMann Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 12z NAM is looking juicy for the southeast. RWI gets a lot of snow, so it's probably right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looks like cold chasing moisture on the NAM and GFS to me. Maybe some backside flurries except for the mountains, who might get a bit more. The 850s are cold enough in NC, but the surface is well above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jlewis1111 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Looking more and more interesting. I think this could surprise a lot of people since everyone is still paying attention to the current storm. 12z nam looks pretty good to previous runs at least for nc va Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I'm planning a big sledding run Saturday morning. A bit of melt tomorrow, some rain or even light snow tomorrow evening, and then temps drop to the mid twenties by daybreak Saturday morning. Sledding should be ideal. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I can't put my blessing on this... clippers 99% of the time under perform, rain for anyone east of the mountains except maybe the triad (if the cold catches up) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 As of 12z NAM, GFS, and Euro... (00z EPS also); pretty much no go for any of SC besides a flurry or two as moisture is wrung out of the atmosphere. Most likely, not even that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 This is probably our last chance of the season before we finally start torching. I'm all-in. Clippers always work out. The NAM was actually sort of interesting, but BL temperatures were a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GSP is forecasting 1-3 inches for the Asheville area. That actually seems high to me. I would doubt we get that much from a weak clipper unless we get some great ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GSP is forecasting 1-3 inches for the Asheville area. That actually seems high to me. I would doubt we get that much from a weak clipper unless we get some great ratios. GSP also just forecast over 10 inches for this most recent event. 4 here in Easley and that is being gracious. I took the highest reading off of my back porch where some drift was involved. Might want to find a more reliable source, though I don't know who that would be after this big bust. It's a shame we can't bring Charlie Gertz back... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncjibble Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Any chance this impacts flights at RDU Sat am? Looks like it's not a huge event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 GSP also just forecast over 10 inches for this most recent event. 4 here in Easley and that is being gracious. I took the highest reading off of my back porch where some drift was involved. Might want to find a more reliable source, though I don't know who that would be after this big bust. It's a shame we can't bring Charlie Gertz back... Relax, man. For many GSP's forecast was accurate. They predicted 8-12 in the mountains and that's what many got. Sorry you didn't get what you were hoping for, but meteorology is an inexact science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 KCAE suggested in their AFD that the Northern Midlands could see snow from this event. I don't see much to agree with it. Here is a quick image from the 18z Hi-Res NAM(4km) that just came out I put together. As you can see; this is an absolute wreck. Just took a look at the 18z GFS and it's a huge wreck at the surface. Even close to your area James. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I will relax eventually. I just don't consider missing the forecast by 8 inches a slight miss. If it din't continue to happen event after event, it would be a different story.. I cannot possibly be the only one in our area that is overly frustrated with this. Our local news channels can't fart on their own anymore without direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted February 13, 2014 Author Share Posted February 13, 2014 Yeah, BL temps are atrocious. Not gonna happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Cold rain. Yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 I will relax eventually. I just don't consider missing the forecast by 8 inches a slight miss. If it din't continue to happen event after event, it would be a different story.. I cannot possibly be the only one in our area that is overly frustrated with this. Our local news channels can't fart on their own anymore without direction. Here's the thing though. They didn't really miss by 8 inches. The reason totals were reduced was because much of the snow was not snow, but sleet and freezing rain instead. The total QPF was forecast fairly well. In reality they missed by one or two degrees, not by 8 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlHill Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 Here's the thing though. They didn't really miss by 8 inches. The reason totals were reduced was because much of the snow was not snow, but sleet and freezing rain instead. The total QPF was forecast fairly well. In reality they missed by one or two degrees, not by 8 inches. I give you that and understand what you are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDeac Posted February 13, 2014 Share Posted February 13, 2014 A+++ thread. Would read again. There's a weenie thread/snow totals thread for a reason. This looks way too warm for all but the higher elevations. On to spring thunderstorms (although I wouldn't be surprised with an early March special with the way this winter has gone)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks like cold chasing moisture on the NAM and GFS to me. Maybe some backside flurries except for the mountains, who might get a bit more. The 850s are cold enough in NC, but the surface is well above freezing. Thats what I thought too. But WRAL in house model had the s/w digging further south which would be favorable for NC. Also the 12 euro is further south and cold enough through out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 NWS for my area- Friday A chance of rain, mainly after 4pm. Increasing clouds, with a high near 38. Southwest wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible. Friday Night Rain and snow likely, becoming all snow after 8pm. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Light and variable wind becoming northwest 5 to 8 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yea that is a potent little vort swinging thru tomorrow could surprise some. I'm cautiously optimistic although I won't complain if it doesn't happen after today's awesomeness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 FWIW looking at the nam, gfs and euro... as stated the BL temps are too warm for nam and gfs. But the 500mb flow is not too far off from the euro. Only difference I can really see with the nam and gfs is that is splits the s/w into 2 pieces. A piece heading north leading to WAA while the main piece dives south through AL/GA. Leading to a weaker storm and with out much interaction from the GL s/w. The euro appears to keep the s/w consolidated as one while diving south through Al/GA but also getting energy from the s/w over the GL region. But guess just have to wait till the 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Yes?Time to reorganize the basketball tourney with metalman! And that's all y'all will see from this clipper! That 384 GFS is looking awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Time to reorganize the basketball tourney with metalman! And that's all y'all will see from this clipper! That 384 GFS is looking awesome! All aboard the 384 GFS train! Prepare yourselves for biblicatastrophapocasnow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 All aboard the 384 GFS train! Prepare yourselves for biblicatastrophapocasnow! We laugh but the eastern trough does return last week of February with everyone's favorite signal showing up negative. Course it's time for it to finally dip and lock into neg territory since it will be the last week of met winter. I was willing to concede and dig out the fishing poles, but after checking there is one more crack in the door of opportunity. Besides we could all use it, it will be 90 degrees day after day starting in about 12 or so weeks as I'm sure everyone on here eagerly anticipates! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacobr57 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Has anyone seen the 00z NAM? Instead of the low pivoting around the mountains it just keeps cruising southeast. Looks like less QPF overall (at least for anyone in the running to get snow). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WX262 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 00Z NAM is looking more interesting for tomorrow night. May be a nice quick hit for some in the SE. N GA may be in the game and possibly northern burbs in ATL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Has anyone seen the 00z NAM? Instead of the low pivoting around the mountains it just keeps cruising southeast. Looks like less QPF overall (at least for anyone in the running to get snow). From what I can tell 850's are freezing but 925 through the surface are torching pretty much for everyone but the mountains. Looks like cold chasing moisture which works 0.000001% of the time, at least where I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 BL temps are absolutely disgusting per 00z NAM for anyone. It looks like even the NC mountains may be borderline on this run. (during any meaningful precipitation.) Definitely a case of the 850/5400m lines being decieving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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