Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wow, actually rain east of the city and southern/coastal NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wow, actually rain east of the city and southern/coastal NJ. The rain/snow line does head east as time goes on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Imperator Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Does anyone factor in or look at modeled surface temperatures at the time of the event or is it just an assumption that QPF + -0 850s = accumulating snow? JFK's Surface MOS numbers from 12z GFS are above freezing for almost entire "event" and I dont mean 33 degrees either. Also, the WPC recommended using a blend of the NAM/Euro for tomorrow thus far. KJFK reported on 14-FEB-2014KJFK GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/14/2014 1200 UTCDT /FEB 14/FEB 15 /FEB 16 /FEB 17HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12N/X 29 40 21 30 16TMP 39 38 37 35 32 31 32 35 37 37 35 32 26 23 21 24 28 28 27 20 17DPT 25 22 20 21 22 23 25 28 27 26 22 16 11 7 6 7 8 8 7 4 2CLD SC SC FW CL OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW SC CL SC SC BK BK BK CL CLWDR 26 26 26 27 26 07 08 07 04 36 34 32 31 30 30 31 30 29 30 31 31WSP 24 19 15 09 05 03 09 12 12 18 24 26 23 22 18 17 16 18 15 15 10P06 0 0 16 89 81 37 0 0 0 0 0P12 16 99 37 0 0Q06 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0Q12 0 4 0 0 0T06 0/14 0/ 2 0/ 2 2/ 1 2/ 6 1/ 0 0/ 7 0/ 8 0/ 0 0/ 7T12 0/14 2/ 2 2/ 6 0/12 1/10POZ 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 5 3 4 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0POS 73 72 74 84 85 88 62 32 19 51 72 91 91 93 90 98 91 91 90 88 87TYP S S S S S S S R R S S S S S S S S S S S SSNW 0 2 0CIG 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 3 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 2 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7OBV N N N N N N BR BR BR BR BR N N N N N N N N N N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 The models don't resolve evaporative cooling if snow is falling, the air is dry enough there for temps to fall broke freezing once it snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cjr231 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Does anyone factor in or look at modeled surface temperatures at the time of the event or is it just an assumption that QPF + -0 850s = accumulating snow? JFK's Surface MOS numbers from 12z GFS are above freezing for almost entire "event" and I dont mean 33 degrees either. Also, the WPC recommended using a blend of the NAM/Euro for tomorrow thus far. KJFK reported on 14-FEB-2014KJFK GFS MOS GUIDANCE 2/14/2014 1200 UTCDT /FEB 14/FEB 15 /FEB 16 /FEB 17HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12N/X 29 40 21 30 16TMP 39 38 37 35 32 31 32 35 37 37 35 32 26 23 21 24 28 28 27 20 17DPT 25 22 20 21 22 23 25 28 27 26 22 16 11 7 6 7 8 8 7 4 2CLD SC SC FW CL OV OV OV OV OV OV OV FW SC CL SC SC BK BK BK CL CLWDR 26 26 26 27 26 07 08 07 04 36 34 32 31 30 30 31 30 29 30 31 31WSP 24 19 15 09 05 03 09 12 12 18 24 26 23 22 18 17 16 18 15 15 10P06 0 0 16 89 81 37 0 0 0 0 0P12 16 99 37 0 0Q06 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0Q12 0 4 0 0 0T06 0/14 0/ 2 0/ 2 2/ 1 2/ 6 1/ 0 0/ 7 0/ 8 0/ 0 0/ 7T12 0/14 2/ 2 2/ 6 0/12 1/10POZ 0 0 0 0 1 1 5 5 3 4 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0POS 73 72 74 84 85 88 62 32 19 51 72 91 91 93 90 98 91 91 90 88 87TYP S S S S S S S R R S S S S S S S S S S S SSNW 0 2 0CIG 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 5 3 3 4 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8VIS 7 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 2 3 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7OBV N N N N N N BR BR BR BR BR N N N N N N N N N N Most of the snow is falling on snow/ice. It will stick if rates are heavy enough on the roads. If not, the roads will be wet but we still add to our snow packs regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The models don't resolve evaporative cooling if snow is falling, the air is dry enough there for temps to fall broke freezing once it snowsYeah, with DP's in the low 20's tonight we should be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jasperk99 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What is the timing for this event; start time etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 850`s are Minus 4 DP in the low 20`s , Precip rates cool the surface , May have some initial BL to overcome on the coast . But the Canadian cools this W to E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 850`s are Minus 4 DP in the low 20`s , Precip rates cool the surface , May have some initial BL to overcome on the coast . But the Canadian cools this W to E As far as I can tell this is all-snow even along the coast. Moderate to high rates would easily overcome any marginal temp problems with this air mass and coastal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 850`s are Minus 4 DP in the low 20`s , Precip rates cool the surface , May have some initial BL to overcome on the coast . But the Canadian cools this W to E If the snow comes down heavier, it should be fine. If it is lighter stuff like the NAM, it may just be some drizzle or very light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If the snow comes down heavier, it should be fine. If it is lighter stuff like the NAM, it may just be some drizzle or very light rain. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 How much QPF does the GGEM show for the city? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I would probably shade toward the UKMET track over GFS until I see how the Euro handles the track shortly. You would think that a slightly more suppressed track like the UK would make sense given yesterdays storm becomes a strong 50/50 allowing more confluence over SE Canada. But we still have a few more runs to go before we can be sure since both tracks right now are in the margin of error for 36 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I would probably shade toward the UKMET track over GFS until I see how the Euro handles the track shortly. You would think that a slightly more suppressed track like the UK would make sense given yesterdays storm becomes a strong 50/50 allowing more confluence over SE Canada. But we still have a few more runs to go before we can be sure since both tracks right now are in the margin of error for 36 hrs. ukmetUS_sfc_prec_036.gif gfsUS_sfc_prec_036.gif Ukie crushes SNE , some folks up there will be happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 12z UKMET run appears a little further west then the 0z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 i'm thinking 2-4 for the metro, maybe 3-5 if the euro beefs up a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GGEM is a nice hit for everyone except extreme interior sections http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I would probably shade toward the UKMET track over GFS until I see how the Euro handles the track shortly. You would think that a slightly more suppressed track like the UK would make sense given yesterdays storm becomes a strong 50/50 allowing more confluence over SE Canada. But we still have a few more runs to go before we can be sure since both tracks right now are in the margin of error for 36 hrs. ukmetUS_sfc_prec_036.gif gfsUS_sfc_prec_036.gif I just like the GFS this year out of the N branch this year , The GFS is WEAKER with the one behind so it stronger 988 vs 994 and a tick west . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GGEM is a nice hit for everyone except extreme interior sections http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html Has about 9 hours of frozen precip from the city NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Has about 9 hours of frozen precip from the city NE New England gets crushed.. If we can this to shift 30 miles west were in business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 A closed low south of our area at h5 would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TwcMan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wow...look at Tuesday on the GGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 By the way just a note the GGEM nailed this past storm several days in advanced as well.. And was spot on with the heavy sleet line interior sections recieved Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 WPC MID-SOUTH TO ATLANTIC CANADA SYSTEM FRI-SUN~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~PREFERENCE: SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE GFSCONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE ACROSS MISSOURI, ALL THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE WAS A FEW HPA TOO WEAK WITH THEIR SURFACE LOW, WHICH IS LIKELY AN ISSUE THAT FOLLOWS THROUGH THE FIRST DAY OF THEIR FORECASTS. WHILE THE 12Z GFS SHOWS CONVECTIVE/GRIDSCALE FEEDBACK NEAR AND OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST WHICH STRENGTHEN ITS UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION AND COULD LEAD TO SOME EXCESSIVE PROGRESSION, THE INITIALIZATION ISSUES IN THE GUIDANCE MAKE THE STRONG GFS SOLUTION APPEAR MOST PLAUSIBLE. PLUS, WITH THE CYCLONE PATH NEARING THE GULF STREAM SATURDAY, A STRONGER SOLUTION STANDS A GOOD CHANCE OF VERIFYING. THE PREFERENCE IS FOR A STRONGER SOLUTION CLOSE TO THE 12Z GFS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE BASED ON INITIALIZATION ERRORS AND POSSIBLE GULF STREAM INTERACTION. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I just like the GFS this year out of the N branch this year , The GFS is WEAKER with the one behind so it stronger 988 vs 994 and a tick west . But the GFS can underestimate confluence and it was too amped with the clipper last weekend before backing off. Would like to see how Euro handles confluence behind the 50/50 shortly. I am probably 2-4 right now with the potential to bump up if track is closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 But the GFS can underestimate confluence and it was too amped with the clipper last weekend before backing off. Would like to see how Euro handles confluence behind the 50/50 shortly. I am probably 2-4 right now with the potential to bump up if track is closer. My 1st call was 4 to 6 .MC NYC LI . Some BL issues at the coast to start but I think this is deep enough that 4 gets reached in those areas IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 i'm thinking 2-4 for the metro, maybe 3-5 if the euro beefs up a little i like yo thoughts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I would probably shade toward the UKMET track over GFS until I see how the Euro handles the track shortly. You would think that a slightly more suppressed track like the UK would make sense given yesterdays storm becomes a strong 50/50 allowing more confluence over SE Canada. DT agrees with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesny Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 My 1st call was 4 to 6 .MC NYC LI . Some BL issues at the coast to start but I think this is deep enough that 4 gets reached in those areas IMO Dumb question...what is MC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Dumb question...what is MC? Monmouth County , Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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