Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS comes together @ 36. MC NYC LI look good It continues with .5 plus thru the LHV getting closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wow, GFS looks good with this. Nice hit from maybe Islip east, 0.50"+, and 0.25"+ areawide. But we need a very fast development for snow to work out, notice how it also kills the initial overrunning snow as the coastal starts up. The 500mb/700mb pattern is good enough to regenerate snow here via a deformation zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 getting closer .4 back to the nassau suffolk border MC NYC looks .35 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wow, GFS looks good with this. Nice hit from maybe Islip east, 0.50"+, and 0.25"+ areawide. But we need a very fast development for snow to work out, notice how it also kills the initial overrunning snow as the coastal starts up. The 500mb/700mb pattern is good enough to regenerate snow here via a deformation zone. True but .25 + area wide is what it had last night. Did it come slight West? Does the kicker interact lesS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Wow, GFS looks good with this. Nice hit from maybe Islip east, 0.50"+, and 0.25"+ areawide. But we need a very fast development for snow to work out, notice how it also kills the initial overrunning snow as the coastal starts up. The 500mb/700mb pattern is good enough to regenerate snow here via a deformation zone. I think this aimed at New England , but can see how Long Island could pull off 6 in mid island . too close and the east end may have BL issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Darn good track from obx to just outside the bm it looks like. Track gets closer each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Verbatim now a nice 2-3" (maybe 4") storm for N/C NJ and NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I saw this 2 days ago while many were still focused on yesterdays big storm. It is looking better on each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is going to be a very tricky one for NYC, since models either seem to have about nothing for the city vs. maybe 3-5" on the GFS. The upper lows close off in a good spot for most of us and have deformation snow overhead for part of the storm, which is how the snow will be generated here on the GFS. The NAM is further SE/suppressed with the upper lows and do not have this snow develop in time for us. From NYC up to about Boston, very tough forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think this aimed at New England , but can see how Long Island could pull off 6 in mid island . too close and the east end may have BL issues Literally a tick more west and it would be nice hit with low end warning criteria i think paul. But currently this does favor NE but the improvements were noteworthy though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is going to be a very tricky one for NYC, since models either seem to have about nothing for the city vs. maybe 3-5" on the GFS. The upper lows close off in a good spot for most of us and have deformation snow overhead for part of the storm, which is how the snow will be generated here on the GFS. The NAM is further SE/suppressed with the upper lows and do not have this snow develop in time for us. From NYC up to about Boston, very tough forecast. Currently looks like NYC/MC out across LI would have the best shot at the deform banding. Any word on some of the non-euro globals on this yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 how com nobody mentioned the rgem, its better than the gfs or just as good http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&type=SN&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=qc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Literally a tick more west and it would be nice hit with low end warning criteria i think paul. But currently this does favor NE but the improvements were noteworthy though GFS 3- 4 CNJ NYC 4 plus CLI , Last run of the RGEM was 5 CNJ NYC LI . See what the RGEM says and I would blend them . The GFS has been good this year out of the northern branch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 how com nobody mentioned the rgem, its better than the gfs http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&type=SN&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=qc Its what i based my 4 to 6 off this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Its what i based my 4 to 6 off this AM oh sorry must have missed it. i first glanced at the thread my iphone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 12z GFS is wetter than the 0z run. A comparison is below: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 how com nobody mentioned the rgem, its better than the gfs or just as good http://meteocentre.com/models/get_accum.php?mod=gemreg&run=12&type=SN&hi=000&hf=048〈=en&map=qc Thats a 125 mile up tick back to the west and we r talking 6-10+++ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 12z GFS is wetter than the 0z run. A comparison is below: Thats a significant uptick particularlu from southern Queens through the Island Don. Not familiar with MTP (guessing its north of Boston ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Thats a significant uptick particularlu from southern Queens through the Island Don. Not familiar with MTP (guessing its north of Boston ) Montauk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 A little more better phasing and this can be a 3-6/4-8 inch storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Good signs so far that maybe the NAM is too suppressed with the upper air lows. Hopefully the Euro follows suit though, it so far has supported the more suppressed look and resulting snow hole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Good signs so far that maybe the NAM is too suppressed with the upper air lows. Hopefully the Euro follows suit though, it so far has supported the more suppressed look and resulting snow hole. I dont expect good things from the Euro , its been awful in the N branch this year . May struggle again . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Any word on the GGEM model? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Any word on the GGEM model? Chances are it will resemble the RGEM but I haven't seen it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Montauk Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I dont expect good things from the Euro , its been awful in the N branch this year . May struggle again . I was going to say that. This system might fall more in line with the gfs than euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Chances are it will resemble the RGEM but I haven't seen it yet So if we go with GFS ( handles Northern stream better this winter ) & RGEM Combo we could be looking at 3-5 rather than 1-3 area wide from TTN to MTP S/W to N/E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 So if we go with GFS ( handles Northern stream better this winter ) & RGEM Combo we could be looking at 3-5 rather than 1-3 area wide from TTN to MTP S/W to N/E Aim for 3 , anything more , you bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Aim for 3 , anything more , you bonus Thats the wise approach , we still have a few model runs ahead & this winter, if it has taught me anything, is never give up so long as there is potential sometimes you get in a pattern where it wants to snow, it needs to snow, it HAS to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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