IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Closes off at 925mb but not 700. It tries to pinch off but looks like this is going to get going just a hair to late for most of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 System keeps slowing down on each run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Really gets going Southeast of the benchmark. The track is going to be too far offshore for us. Heavy banding south of Cape Cod. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The influence of the kicker here is overwhelmingly obvious. Most eastern areas are - 0.10" QPF. NJ is mostly 0.10"+ Southern PA is 0.25"+. Philly right on the edge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I miss the days of PBP only for the Euro. That being said the surface looks warm for most of NJ south of 80 but it is collapsing SE @ HR33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This might trend NW a little at the end-storms have all done that this winter, but this looks just a little too progressive for more than a run of the mill, advisory type event, and even that more east than west. Looks great for Cape Cod though and maybe Boston. We were overdue for a too late developer that crushes them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Be careful yanks...system trying to pinch off 700 low around 27 hrs on some guidance...could happen sooner than models actually showing right now: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The influence of the kicker here is overwhelmingly obvious. I diagree , it jumps the surface low out bet 24 and 30 while at 500 its neg tilted . think its closer to the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I miss the days of PBP only for the Euro. That being said the surface looks warm for most of NJ south of 80 but it is collapsing SE @ HR33. Never going to happen until the NCEP speeds up its updating. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Be careful yanks...system trying to pinch off 700 low around 27 hrs on some guidance...could happen sooner than models actually showing right now: Look at H5. This gets going a few hours too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Look at H5. This gets going a few hours too late.but barely a few hours. Really close call for us attm but much bigger deal for boston and the cape obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 but barely a few hours. Really close call for us attm but much bigger deal for boston and the cape obviously I'm headed down to Washington DC tonight. I'll probably be in a better spot than up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This Just Doesn't Look Right! H5 is Great especially on the GFS, (which actually closed the H5 Low Off In the Mid Atlantic) But Absolutely No Moisture of the west side even with a storm at or near benchmark. The 6z GFS had a beautiful H5 and Track with a powerful low but barely any precip. Models seem to be suffering from convective feedback by bringing all the moisture into the center of the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 4k NAM definilty focuses the heaviest banding NW of the major cities. South central PA, Eastern PA, NW NJ up into southern portions of the LHV look to be ground zero. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This Just Doesn't Look Right! H5 is Great especially on the GFS, (which actually closed the H5 Low Off In the Mid Atlantic) But Absolutely No Moisture of the west side even with a storm at or near benchmark. The 6z GFS had a beautiful H5 and Track with a powerful low but barely any precip. Models seem to be suffering from convective feedback by bringing all the moisture into the center of the low I was saying this a few days ago, whenever you have such a dynamic system like what we saw yesterday it's very hard to have another so close behind it. The atmosphere needs time to reload. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Hmmm: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Hour 30 shows the city eastward into LI in a perfect dry slot. Strong convection offshore and banding NW of 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 4k NAM definilty focuses the heaviest banding NW of the major cities. South central PA, Eastern PA, NW NJ up into southern portions of the LHV look to be ground zero. lol.. No more please! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 At hour 31 the banding NW of the city literally collapses as the coastal takes over, shifting all of the snow offshore, or 90% of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 lol.. No more please! Because of the transition to the coastal almost all of the snow falls to your southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS has been stellar this winter in handling northern stream so lets see what it has to say Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Just To Point Out Cause I Find This Hillarious, Major Sleet Feast For Cape Cod Based On The NAM. 850Mb temps are above freezing Aswell as the surface while the 925mb is below freezing with heavy Qpf overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 06z GFS closes off at H5 briefly and that slows down the flow just enough to get things going faster than the NAM. We'll see what 12z has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 At hour 31 the banding NW of the city literally collapses as the coastal takes over, shifting all of the snow offshore, or 90% of it. Exactly what I'm concerned about. The overrunning snow and offshore coastal snow could form a nasty shaft zone where the lift between them sinks. The coastal way offshore will rob from the snow west of the city. That's why these awesome H500 depictions are worthless if they are too far offshore and organize way too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Exactly what I'm concerned about. The overrunning snow and offshore coastal snow could form a nasty shaft zone where the lift between them sinks. The coastal way offshore will rob from the snow west of the city. That's why these awesome H500 depictions are worthless if they are too far offshore and organize way too late. That kicker is going to force things to develop too far offshore. Some of us would actually benefit from the coastal developing even later. That at least would allow NW areas to cash in more on the initial WAA snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Just To Point Out Cause I Find This Hillarious, Major Sleet Feast For Cape Cod Based On The NAM. 850Mb temps are above freezing Aswell as the surface while the 925mb is below freezing with heavy Qpf overhead Well to be fair we had that last night here in CNJ and it just ended up as torrential rain. Frozen layer wasn't thick enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is painfully close to something MUCH bigger, particularly coast areas. Focusing more on the SREF/GFS here, it seems it's way too early to claim this is heading "out to sea". Latest SREF shows the mslp, about 50 miles east of the BM, however there is VERY signficant spread on its west side, and considerably more than it had on its previous (3z) run. This is something we saw preceding the last storm, leading up to the SREF correcting west, as did the more "east" models. Additionally, the GFS has a bias of being too far south and east with these systems, usually correcting north and west within 48 hours. I'd be surpised to not see a track at or just slightly west of the BM. Interior sections can probably write this off as a graze and some light snow. Coastal sections need to be vigilant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This is painfully close to something MUCH bigger, particularly coast areas. Focusing more on the SREF/GFS here, it seems it's way too early to claim this is heading "out to sea". Latest SREF shows the mslp, about 50 miles east of the BM, however there is VERY signficant spread on its west side, and considerably more than it had on its previous (3z) run. This is something we saw preceding the last storm, leading up to the SREF correcting west, as did the more "east" models. Additionally, the GFS has a bias of being too far south and east with these systems, usually correcting north and west within 48 hours. I'd be surpised to not see a track at or just slightly west of the BM. Interior sections can probably write this off as a graze and some light snow. Coastal sections need to be vigilant... The SREF is becoming pretty adamant about having one good band of snow over eastern PA and western NJ, and a pretty bad snow hole east of there because of the coastal robbing moisture and energy. Unless the coastal shifts a great deal NW, I wouldn't mind honestly that it be weaker and SE and at least salvage some snow for the majority of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Gfs phasing and trying to close off a 500mb low between 21-24 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 GFS comes together @ 36. MC NYC LI look good It continues with .5 plus thru the LHV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.