EasternLI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 6z GFS still has me interested Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 6z GFS still has me interested Thats a great look thats for sure. We need the models to follow suit today now for a nice hitter for tommorow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 6z GEFS 0.5" to eastern LI, 0.25" to NYC, and band of 0.25"+ in the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The RGEM is .5 for MC the City and Long Island , less NW . I like 4 to 6 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The RGEM is .5 for MC the City and Long Island , less NW . I like 4 to 6 . It would make up for the missed CCB action from last night paul. Be nice if we can squeeze more out of this system. Its short range i know but to my "amatuer" eyes its not that far off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This has "light event that was a tick away from a blizzard" written all over it. Watch that classic CCB on the BOX radar while we're ripping cirrus. Still not complaining. Few inches, refresh the pack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 This has "light event that was a tick away from a blizzard" written all over it. Watch that classic CCB on the BOX radar while we're ripping cirrus. Still not complaining. Few inches, refresh the pack. Rub it in john thats right not giving up on this one today, like i said to my way-less educated eyes than yours 6z and 0z GFS werent too far off from maybe not a blizzard but something more noteworthy than a light event. We still got todays models including or short range stuff so im not giving up on this being more than a light event till 0z tonight. However, the EURO which was the king with this past storm is still further east than the more wrapped gfs models from 0z/6z so i want to see the EURO 12z run today more importantly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 14, 2014 Author Share Posted February 14, 2014 Rub it in john thats right not giving up on this one today, like i said to my way-less educated eyes than yours 6z and 0z GFS werent too far off from maybe not a blizzard but something more noteworthy than a light event. We still got todays models including or short range stuff so im not giving up on this being more than a light event till 0z tonight. However, the EURO which was the king with this past storm is still further east than the more wrapped gfs models from 0z/6z so i want to see the EURO 12z run today more importantly The GFS is likely more correct much as it was with the little clipper the euro was a hair too weak on because this is again a northern stream redeveloper as of now the QPF trends are matching dead on as they have all season with northern stream waves, GFS and RGEM similar and euro too dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 It would make up for the missed CCB action from last night paul. Be nice if we can squeeze more out of this system. Its short range i know but to my "amatuer" eyes its not that far off Nothing gona make up for 1.04 of liquid in 60 minutes last nite at LGA with a 32 degree surface and plus ( 4 at 850 . ) The center road the shore and never jumped E . Hey it happens , cant win em all , but you should always try too . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Nothing gona make up for 1.04 of liquid in 60 minutes last nite at LGA with a 32 degree surface and plus ( 4 at 850 . ) The center road the shore and never jumped E . Hey it happens , cant win em all , but you should always try too . Very true, you try to win them all but in the end mother nature decides. My wishcasting of QPF last night showed that i have plenty of maturity left to do when it comes to this stuff. I try to actively participate with constructive input but sometimes i do make mistakes, however you learn from them and make sure it doesnt happen again. That said, im still not giving up on a more amplified system for tommorow, both 0z and especially 6z runs were encouraging. Patiently waiting for the 12z suite to start at 8:40 with the 12z NAM paul Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Less than 0.25" anywhere west of Nassau Suffolk border on the SREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think there should be a lot more QPF on the west side of this system, especially given the 6z GFS depiction of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think there should be a lot more QPF on the west side of this system, especially given the 6z GFS depiction of the storm. When i saw the 6z GFS run this morning i though the same thing as well. Kind of like what GFS did leading up to yesterdays storm in severely underdoing the precip on the west side of the storm. Not sure if it applies here but thats my thinking nzucker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I think there should be a lot more QPF on the west side of this system, especially given the 6z GFS depiction of the storm. The wave spacing is really poor with the approaching shortwave from the west and confluence to the north initially: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/f42.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Argues for a closer to the coast track: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 12z NAM is phasing over the TN valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoman1126 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 What's the start time for this event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Looks sort of reminiscent to yesterdays problem. The northern stream coming in behind it will be once again acting as a kicker. What an incredible winter. Even when things look to be slowing down, more threats seem to pop up every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Argues for a closer to the coast track: The wave spacing is really poor with the approaching shortwave from the west and confluence to the north initially: http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/AVN_6z/f42.gif not arguing the facts BUT the initial low zips out so fast it allows for some favorable wavelength by early tomorrow....that initial low will be long gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 12z NAM is phasing over the TN valley. Thanks for doing PbP today. I failed BAD yesterday, i lost my marbles when i mentioned QPF offshore last night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I'm thinking this is generally a minor 2-3" event for most, maybe more in eastern Suffolk, good to refresh the snowpack after what melts today, that's about it. The digging I was mentioning yesterday will hurt us as the trough looks too progressive, and it will only enhance a storm that will blow up in time for Cape Cod but not us. The same process might destroy lift that we need for a heavier overrunning type snow here. There's still some time for this to change and the trough looks impressive, but I'm not excited for that big an event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 If the wave spacing had been greater like Earthlight alluded too, this would have been able to turn the corner faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Winter Storm Watches have actually been hoisted for the greater Boston area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Sub 1004 mb low over OBX, snow moving in from the SW hour 27. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Winter Storm Watches have actually been hoisted for the greater Boston area.they are gonna get crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Sub 1004 mb low over OBX, snow moving in from the SW hour 27.obx to bm again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Trough trying to go negative tilt hour 30 but the kicker is really bearing down. Sort of funny that the kicker is getting kicked by another kicker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Hour 30 sub 1000mb low about 100 miles east of the VA/NC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 The 850mb low closes off SE of ACY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Light to moderate snow hour 33 with a sub 996mb low south of the benchmark. Trough going negative tilt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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