WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 These are SREF cities off WB .Ohhh from the 3z run though. The 9z puts a paltry amount of precip over our area. Much much worse. The new SREF is supported by the RAP, which is despised but I love it (maybe too much :/ ) lol. It shows a snow hole over our area and gives us a band of snow later but not muchSent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 So much confusion. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 For their area. They got much worse for NYC and have under .25" now. Did the SREF not load on WB ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Did the SREF not load on WB ? No I just checked. That is 3z Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The model mean at KNYC is really close to .4 The 11z HRRR is 3 to 4 through the area . There will be many more 4`s that pop up than 2`s . Don't sweat it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The model mean at KNYC is really close to .4 The 11z HRRR is 3 to 4 through the area . There will be many more 4`s that pop up than 2`s . Don't sweat it . I agree, I think the new SREF is too low. I think most areas around here will get 2-3", with NW NJ and parts of Long Island getting 4-6"Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Latest HRRR showing dry slot off the NJ coast with most of NJ in steady precip all day. Dry slot seems to include Raritan Bay and NYC and about the western 2/3 of LI. This is through late afternoon. Here is the 5 pm pic, earlier frames are similar. Subsequent frames do show the hole filling in before precip has moved east of the city around 8 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The GFS has seemed to lead the way with this one, and it certainly does look like a classic nor' easter in it's presentation of the precip shield. I think more emphasis should be placed on that model for now. Also it certainly seems to be supported by the look of the WV/Satt down south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 So much confusion. LOL. There's no confusion. The srefs cut back significantly for NYC. 1"-2" of snow tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This is the 9z SREF Guidance: In addition, the 0z and 6z RGEM, 0z ECMWF, and 0z and 6z GFS all indicate the NYC Metro Area (including nearby New Jersey and southern Westchester County and southwestern Fairfield County) should receive a solid 2"-4" of snow. Parts of Long Island should pick up 3"-6" (mainly Nassau County) and 4"-8" (mainly Suffolk County). In all those areas, a few locally higher amounts could occur. All in all,today's system should add to the large snowfall totals that have been racked up during the last 20 days, some of which are nearing normal snowfall for an entire winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 How do Temps look at beginning of storm and when do they drop off? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The HRRR changes most over to frozen by around 4 pm, NNJ a little earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 http://hp6.wright-we...-loop_1hour.gif Looks like WRF shows the feeder band off the ocean getting going to fuel some pretty nice snows in time for NNJ/NYC/LI around 20z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 If anyone cares about the Nam Nam might be delayed for another 2-3 more hours NCEP Operational Status Message Sat Feb 15 13:08:28 2014 GMT NOUS42 KWNO 151308ADMNFDSENIOR DUTY METEOROLOGIST NWS ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGENWS NCEP CENTRAL OPERATIONS COLLEGE PARK MD1303Z SAT FEB 15 201412Z MODEL PRODUCTION CYCLE WILL DEFINITELY BE DELAYED.. DUE TOTHE MAJOR CIRCUIT AND INTERNET SERVICE ISSUE AT THE TOC/GATEWAY..WE ARE DELAYING THE START OF THE 12Z CYCLE RUNS.. INCLUDING THENAM AND RAP UPDATES.. DUE TO THE ON-GOING ISSUES AT THEGATEWAY/TOC. THEIR VENDOR/CONTRACTOR SAYS THEIR WORK COULD TAKEUP TO 2-3 HRS.. BUT THEY ARE ON-SITE AND WORKING ON THE ISSUE.WE WILL UPDATE YOU AS SOON AS WE KNOW HOW LONG THE DELAY OF THE12Z MODELS WILL BE... MOST OF THE DATA NEEDED TO RUN THE MODELSIS NOT REACHING THE NEW WCOSS SUPER COMPUTER TO RUN THE MODELSAND WE ARE ALSO UNABLE TO SEND PRODUCTS OUT AS WELL TOAWIPS...VIA THE TOC/GATEWAY.MORE INFORMATION ONCE THIS BECOMES AVAILABLE..NEWBY/SDM/NCO/NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 There's no confusion. The srefs cut back significantly for NYC. 1"-2" of snow tops. My reference was to the confusion on which SREF output was being used. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 How do Temps look at beginning of storm and when do they drop off? You`re 850`s are minus 2- and at 925 its 0c Once the precip increases you are fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 RGEM @ 1020 will be the first of the 12z then . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Capt. Adam Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The HRRR is still running...is it getting new data though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Latest HRRR showing dry slot off the NJ coast with most of NJ in steady precip all day. Dry slot seems to include Raritan Bay and NYC and about the western 2/3 of LI. This is through late afternoon. Here is the 5 pm pic, earlier frames are similar. Subsequent frames do show the hole filling in before precip has moved east of the city around 8 pm. cref_t3sfc_f10.png That is not really supposed to fill in until late afternoon for the city and LI. But it's no guarantee of course that it does-if so, great, if not we'll be on the sidelines obviously. The mid level lows have to cooperate and generate that snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Snowing in Belford coastal Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Snowing in freehold aswell even though the nws has r/s most of the day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Heavy snow here !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Temp down from 36 to 33 once snow started.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Snowing here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 whats with the massive dry slot im in that extends all the way to trenton lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJWeather201 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 whats with the massive dry slot im in that extends all the way to trenton lol So much for the dry slot being over NYC area with NW NJ topping out best. Looks like its the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 So much for the dry slot being over NYC area with NW NJ topping out best. Looks like its the other way around. It'll fill in (it frikkin better lol)..look at the stuff down in mercer starting to move north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Mod snow here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Cotton ball city! It just keeps snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Cotton ball city! It just keeps snowing Wow and I'm what 2 miles from you and not even flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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