Nibor Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro shows 3-5?? thats a big shift in right direction. it was the driest in earlier runs?No? 0z shows a bit more snow for the northern half of NJ. 12z only showed a dusting to 2 inches but has roughly the same snow output for everywhere else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's essentially meeting up at that consensus. 2-5" for most of us seems like a good spot. Tomorrow though could deliver some more surprises-remember how much further west the snow set up than anticipated last storm. If the upper lows close off or track in a good place there could be some fun for a few hours and some higher amounts than shown now. I think the optimism is , in part, dure to th models trends of the past 24 hours with incremental increases in the main 3 players. with that being said good luck to all & a good night may we wake up with model runs that indicate a 150 mile shift west & a 50/50 to the nrth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 ..very true..MTK will do the best of all..should be fun watching it unfold. good luck to you guys in L.beach (jm too)..i'm hoping for 6". I'm actually back in wantagh where I grew up after a long stay in long beach. I am essentially in the same climate zone being south of merrick road less then a mile from the bay. I will say even the 7 miles directly ne do make a lot of difference. I saw allot of freaky snow melt that jm and blue wave will verify in my lb days. We would have this onshore fog se wind that would eat snow South Dakota style. I would go see my parents here in south wantagh and be shocked at the difference. As much as I despise the south shore snow hole it is a beautiful place to live. I have seen sunsets with rainbows over the west bays that are up there with anywhere in the world. Personally I lucked out big time as my apartment had water to the door during Irene (canals section) before I left. Sandy would have been a complete lose. Water on the street stopped here during sandy as my house is on a kind of hill as it want way over merrick road west west and east. The south shore is a series of tidal streams and hills a ten foot elevation change being everything. My house was built in 37 and a original neighbor long gone told my current earliest neighbors they had nothing to worry about with Gloria. We didn't flood in 38 and Donna. That little hill has worked wonders over the years. I have to say if we didn't flood during sandy I don't see how we could I guess because we were built over a chicken farm. I would love to see this area pre jones beach which led to me house being built as a summer bungalow. Off topic yes but important to this storm. I really think the Far East end gets pummeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm actually back in wantagh where I grew up after a long stay in long beach. I am essentially in the same climate zone being south of merrick road less then a mile from the bay. I will say even the 7 miles directly ne do make a lot of difference. I saw allot of freaky snow melt that jm and blue wave will verify in my lb days. We would have this onshore fog se wind that would eat snow South Dakota style. I would go see my parents here in south wantagh and be shocked at the difference. As much as I despise the south shore snow hole it is a beautiful place to live. I have seen sunsets with rainbows over the west bays that are up there with anywhere in the world. Personally I lucked out big time as my apartment had water to the door during Irene (canals section) before I left. Sandy would have been a complete lose. Water on the street stopped here during sandy as my house is on a kind of hill as it want way over merrick road west west and east. The south shore is a series of tidal streams and hills a ten foot elevation change being everything. My house was built in 37 and a original neighbor long gone told my current earliest neighbors they had nothing to worry about with Gloria. We didn't flood in 38 and Donna. That little hill has worked wonders over the years. I have to say if we didn't flood during sandy I don't see how we could I guess because we were built over a chicken farm. I would love to see this area pre jones beach which led to me house being built as a summer bungalow. Off topic yes but important to this storm. I really think the Far East end gets pummeled Living here definitely has its good and bad points- weatherwise this is probably the most boring place on Long Island if not pretty much the whole Tri-State area because thunderstorms in the spring/summer either die or never form here on the marine layer, winter weather is much better on the north shore, etc, but being on the beach and living LB's relaxed lifestyle with plenty of bars, restaurants, attractions, is awesome too. Irene came close to flooding my house and Sandy pretty much destroyed it and we were out for months, but we're increasingly getting over it now and moving on, although wide swaths of town are still rebuilding and will likely be for years. In that respect I lucked out. Anyway, back to the 3-5" expected for tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Living here definitely has its good and bad points- weatherwise this is probably the most boring place on Long Island if not pretty much the whole Tri-State area because thunderstorms in the spring/summer either die or never form here on the marine layer, winter weather is much better on the north shore, etc, but being on the beach and living LB's relaxed lifestyle with plenty of bars, restaurants, attractions, is awesome too. Irene came close to flooding my house and Sandy pretty much destroyed it and we were out for months, but we're increasingly getting over it now and moving on, although wide swaths of town are still rebuilding and will likely be for years. In that respect I lucked out. Anyway, back to the 3-5" expected for tomorrow... Lb is an amazing place I will always love hanging lived there! Boxing Day was unreal! 60mph just sent the ocean backwards and the drifts were insane down on shore! It's to bad you are the only regular poster left as bluewave and I have both moved on. I will never forget being on the boardwalk during the height of the 2010 nor'easter talking mike sidel front the twc during 70 mph gust as the sand formed sand-natoes next to alegria what a storm that was for lb. countless thunderstorms that died In place other then 08 witch had an amazing lightning show when I lives at Monroe beach on the boardwalk. Unfortunately for the current renters the surge went right into the first floor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Lb is an amazing place I will always love hanging lived there! Boxing Day was unreal! 60mph just sent the ocean backwards and the drifts were insane down on shore! It's to bad you are the only regular poster left as bluewave and I have both moved on. I will never forget being on the boardwalk during the height of the 2010 nor'easter talking mike sidel front the twc during 70 mph gust as the sand formed sand-natoes next to alegria what a storm that was for lb. countless thunderstorms that died In place other then 08 witch had an amazing lightning show when I lives at Monroe beach on the boardwalk. Unfortunately for the current renters the surge went right into the first floor Boxing Day was an incredible event down here even though we were not the snow jackpot, the crazy winds made up for it in a big way. And I think Sandy's impact here made our "crazy weather" quota for about the next century. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ababa Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 HRRR and RAP putting NYC in the 1-3" snow hole zone....most of PA does well and then the energy switches to the coastal. In our area Suffolk Cty does pretty well with 4 to 6. That doesnt seem like a crazy idea..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 6z NAM closes off the 700 low over maybe Pt Pleasant and has a nice area of lift cross over from NYC east between 21z and after 0z-hmmm. Could still be a good few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The RAP nailed the banding especially with the second part. The HRRR caved to the RAP Sent from my iPhone No it didn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 No it didn't. Yeah it did. Clearly. At aroumd 22z the HRRR shifted way NW to be more in line with the RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah it did. Clearly. At aroumd 22z the HRRR shifted way NW to be more in line with the RAP. No it didn't. It flip flopped about two or three times and yes it shifted but was still way off and did so very late in the game and missed a good portion of where the heavier snow fell actually outside of that NW area. Even the extremely heavy snowfall it showed NW didn't actually materialize as maybe 40 pct of that actually fell. Both models quite honestly performed poorly with Round 2 and the RAP has been beaten pretty consistently this winter by the HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 ..east of william floyd pkwy are in a winter storm warning.. and not that far away is cape cod..they're in a blizzard warning ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sn0w Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Oh good, I was hoping to see people argue about the performance of the RAP and HRRR for a previous storm in a thread about today's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Oh good, I was hoping to see people argue about the performance of the RAP and HRRR for a previous storm in a thread about today's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Well in regards to the NEW RAP lol....it hammers Boston with almost 1.25" qpf....they could be in for over 12" of snow Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Well in regards to the NEW RAP lol....it hammers Boston with almost 1.25" qpf....they could be in for over 12" of snow Sent from my iPhone rap was a disaster last storm fwiw as was the hrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 32 degrees here Essex cty....looks like some flurries may arrive shortly Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 32.1 in Edison, up from 31.6 when I woke up. Big snow hole over jersey atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/ECIR4.html Quite the impressive looking Sattelitte picture... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Heard the SREFs ticked west in the NE forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Heard the SREFs ticked west in the NE forum? I see .56 KLGA .57 KBLM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I see .56 KLGA .57 KBLM EWR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 EWR? .56 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Heard the SREFs ticked west in the NE forum? For their area. They got much worse for NYC and have under .25" now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I see .56 KLGA .57 KBLMLatest sref on Ncep looks VERY dry with the 2" line cutting far NE of NYC so we stay out of even the 2" at 9z run....am I missing something ? It's better for Boston thoSent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 .569z ? EWR? Definitely not. Quick glance looks like maybe .15 or soSent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 9z ? EWR? Definitely not. Quick glance looks like maybe .15 or so Sent from my iPhone These are SREF cities off WB . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wow, that is pretty wet. Nice. Thx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 For their area. They got much worse for NYC and have under .25" now. How is that possible when EWR shows .56? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The latest SREF is terrible for NYC. Cut back big time. The radar looks impressive so I guess we just have to see what happens today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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