jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 'cause Jan 2005 was snow here...(map courtesy NorthShoreWX) 16" from that in Long Beach I believe. My parents told me it was an all out blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Overall, the 0z GFS is quite similar to the earlier 12z run with respect to qpf. Across parts of Long Island and farther south, qpf is a little higher. This leads me to think that the 18z run may have been too aggressive. The 0z run is also reasonably similar to the RGEM. So, it appears NYC is in line for a 2"-4"/possibly 3"-6" snowfall while parts of Long Island could see 4"-8". Below are GFS qpf forecasts from the 2/14 0z, 2/14 12z, and 2/15 0z runs: For NYC, 0.8" would push 2013-14 past 1960-61 for the 8th snowiest winter on record. 2.0" would push 2013-14 past 1898-99 for the 7th snowiest winter on record. 3.9" would push 2013-14 past 1874-75 for the 6th snowiest winter on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I think he's talking about the Dec 9, 2005 storm that was rain on Long Island but huge snows for Boston.Nope January 2005. But man way to out salt in the wounds! Dec 2005 was a complete nightmare! I was working in manhattan and was soooooooo pissed! Good thing tomorrow is nothin like that! That was just to early in the season when water temps screw li. Honestly the best snow season compared to the rest of the region on li is feb and march and we are great this year with super cold near shore ocean temps! I normally surf this time of year but this year I'm staying away just to cold even with modern wet suits sticking to snowboarding for a while Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Overall, the 0z GFS is quite similar to the earlier 12z run with respect to qpf. Across parts of Long Island and farther south, qpf is a little higher. This leads me to think that the 18z run may have been too aggressive. The 0z run is also reasonably similar to the RGEM. So, it appears NYC is in line for a 2"-4"/possibly 3"-6" snowfall while parts of Long Island could see 4"-8". Below are GFS qpf forecasts from the 2/14 0z, 2/14 12z, and 2/15 0z runs: For NYC, 0.8" would push 2013-14 past 1960-61 for the 8th snowiest winter on record. 2.0" would push 2013-14 past 1898-99 for the 7th snowiest winter on record. 3.9" would push 2013-14 past 1874-75 for the 6th snowiest winter on record. It would certainly be nice to add a few inches of snow to replace what melted today and then have it all freeze solid overnight. This is still a system that can pack some surprises, but overall looks like a decent event. Thanks as always, Don Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nope January 2005. But man way to out salt in the wounds! Dec 2005 was a complete nightmare! I was working in manhattan and was soooooooo pissed! Good thing tomorrow is nothin like that! That was just to early in the season when water temps screw li. Honestly the best snow season compared to the rest of the region on li is feb and march and we are great this year with super cold near shore ocean temps! I normally surf this time of year but this year I'm staying away just to cold even with modern wet suits sticking to snowboarding for a while That Dec 9, 2005 storm had quite the gradient...6 inches in Central Park but just rain for south Queens & southern Brooklyn. Major blizzard for Massachusetts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I like 3-5" NYC , east to Nassau/Suffolk border; Suffolk 4-8". Should be an advisory, Winter Storm Warning respectively.Hey there brother, good to finally see you on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Hey there brother, good to finally see you on here Likewise. I figured it's the best way to document my forecasts, and learn from my own experiences. The downside is this will most certainly suck more time out of my day. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Likewise. I figured it's the best way to document my forecasts, and learn from my own experiences. The downside is this will most certainly suck more time out of my day. Haha.Well at least I won't be the only one who uses all his free time here ha.. Back ot with the storm.. It's surprising giving the arw that the gfs wasn't a big run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The RAP dry slots NYC all day as it snows west and east lol....like 0 precip until 5 pm tmrw Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The RAP dry slots NYC all day as it snows west and east lol....like 0 precip until 5 pm tmrw Sent from my iPhone Been jumping around all day, not to say this run is wrong. Any word on HRRR? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Central Suffolk resident here pretty excited! ..eastern suffolk resident pretty excited too! maybe we can make up for the 'wash out' from thurs morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 ..eastern suffolk resident pretty excited too! maybe we can make up for the 'wash out' from thurs morning. YES!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 We were due for a late developer for New England in a progressive year like this. At least we get the initial batch of snow and the idea that it would vanish is gone. For the Jan 2005 storm I was in State College PA where we had about 2-3 hours of snow and then a dryslot from hell, huge bust as we had less than half the snow originally predicted. I saw what SNE and LI were experiencing and cursed the computer screen, haha there were LARGE parts of sne that got half of forecasted totals.....it really was a big deal eastern half of sne and much of what fell western sne was from the clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The RAP dry slots NYC all day as it snows west and east lol....like 0 precip until 5 pm tmrw Sent from my iPhone The dry slot will always be something of a risk until the radar says otherwise. The mid level low centers have to develop properly. But after yesterday, I wouldn't trust the RAP with pretty much anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 ..eastern suffolk resident pretty excited too! maybe we can make up for the 'wash out' from thurs morning. How Far East? The further the better. Someone out there is going to rock. Mtk being over 100 miles east of NYC is in for a near blizzard big surprise. The late 90s storm absolutely crushed out there is a very un-snowy period, Ridiculous rates like 3" an hour for a while will pile up and then blow around like crazy in 50mph gusts. This is a super east end special Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 The spc WRF looks very good it sort of resembles the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The dry slot will always be something of a risk until the radar says otherwise. The mid level low centers have to develop properly. But after yesterday, I wouldn't trust the RAP with pretty much anything. The RAP nailed the banding especially with the second part. The HRRR caved to the RAP Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The RAP nailed the banding especially with the second part. The HRRR caved to the RAP Sent from my iPhone For me it flipped around quite a bit on the second part of the storm, so I'm not thrilled with it. Actually, the 3z run shows it getting together nicely for probably a nice hit from the city east-closed 700mb low south of Cape May, and sharply neg tilted 500mb low centered around Ocean City, MD. Heavy snow is knocking on the door by 21z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The RAP nailed the banding especially with the second part. The HRRR caved to the RAP Sent from my iPhone Rap was terrible it had the heavy bands in pa...they came over my house in queens... (Where it showed little qpf for a few runs). Hrrr nailed it...look at my post earlier in this topic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Rap was terrible it had the heavy bands in pa...they came over my house in queens... (Where it showed little qpf for a few runs). Hrrr nailed it...look at my post earlier in this topicYeah but I'd have to disagree. The HRRR was showing ridiculous amounts of 10-20" for part 2 for our area here near NYC consistently and the RAP was showing for several runs this heaviest banding of 8-12" focused over NWNJ Sussex/western Passaic and Morris counties as well as EPA. Eventually the HRRR came around to the RAP's solution. We only got 2" from the backend here...NYC around the same, and it was accurate, showing a 2-4" snow on the backside. That being said....the HRRR has done an incredible job in the past with storms this seasonSent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 How Far East? The further the better. Someone out there is going to rock. Mtk being over 100 miles east of NYC is in for a near blizzard big surprise. The late 90s storm absolutely crushed out there is a very un-snowy period, Ridiculous rates like 3" an hour for a while will pile up and then blow around like crazy in 50mph gusts. This is a super east end special ..very true..MTK will do the best of all..should be fun watching it unfold. good luck to you guys in L.beach (jm too)..i'm hoping for 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Yeah but I'd have to disagree. The HRRR was showing ridiculous amounts of 10-20" for part 2 for our area here near NYC consistently and the RAP was showing for several runs this heaviest banding of 8-12" focused over NWNJ Sussex/western Passaic and Morris counties as well as EPA. Eventually the HRRR came around to the RAP's solution. We only got 2" from the backend here...NYC around the same, and it was accurate . Sent from my iPhone The snow map.... Snow maps are for entertainment only....if you looked at the thermals you would have known it wasnt gonna snow till after 12....look at my post at around 7pm it has all the images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 16" from that in Long Beach I believe. My parents told me it was an all out blizzard. You could say that: http://www.northshorewx.com/images/winter2005/Blizzard05/Blizz0501-1500k.wmv http://www.northshorewx.com/blizzard20050123.asp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 ..very true..MTK will do the best of all..should be fun watching it unfold. good luck to you guys in L.beach (jm too)..i'm hoping for 6". I'm expecting 2-3" here, hoping for a surprise and 4-5", but we'll see. You're in good shape out there, should make it to 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scooter13 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 anyone know what the ECMWF shows? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 You could say that: http://www.northshorewx.com/images/winter2005/Blizzard05/Blizz0501-1500k.wmv http://www.northshorewx.com/blizzard20050123.asp That is, by all definitions , weather porn. BEAUTIFUl vidoe, thx 4 sharing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 anyone know what the ECMWF shows? looks like 3-5 for the metro, 5+ far east end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 looks like 3-5 for the metro, 5+ far east end Euro shows 3-5?? thats a big shift in right direction. it was the driest in earlier runs?No? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 .30 NYC from the ECMWF so it does increases the amounts from 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Euro shows 3-5?? thats a big shift in right direction. it was the driest in earlier runs?No? It's essentially meeting up at that consensus. 2-5" for most of us seems like a good spot. Tomorrow though could deliver some more surprises-remember how much further west the snow set up than anticipated last storm. If the upper lows close off or track in a good place there could be some fun for a few hours and some higher amounts than shown now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.