JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 , the 500mb opened backup.... Not calling you out personally allsnow, I like your pbp but we in general would do well to just let things take their course first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Hr 24 mod snow in NYC and long island Steady snow nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Hr 27 long island getting a solid hit. Still light snow in nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Out to 30 and its over, was mostly steady light to mod snow over NJ the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NYC is a little under .5 this run. Jersey is .25+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 You do a great job, don't let anyone else say otherwise Wasn't saying otherwise, His pbp is good, but there's no reason(in general) not just him specifically to start throwing around its going to be a big hit. Let the model do its thing and then everyone can analyze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Fact of the matter is..... its still showing the 2-4 across NJ and more NE of NYC... par for the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rgwp96 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wasn't saying otherwise, His pbp is good, but there's no reason(in general) not just him specifically to start throwing around its going to be a big hit. Let the model do its thing and then everyone can analyze. 18z looked better precip wise . but still looks like a 3-5 inch snowfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I really think we would see more than the model shows. It did terribly QPF wise with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 18z looked better precip wise . but still looks like a 3-5 inch snowfall Yes, its par for the course pretty much. This is why its best to let it play out first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The low went SE a little on this run, so it's likely that the last few GFS runs were overdone and it will be more like the NAM/RGEM. Looks like we're coming to a 3-5" type event for Long Island, SW CT, Hudson Valley and maybe NYC, 2-4" for much of NJ. Eastern Suffolk maybe 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Although it's probably meaningless for many of us, to the New England thread the UKMET looks great tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 0z GFS .4 Gets back to E Monmouth County and into KNYC .5 gets back to Western Nassau and .6 to the Nassau Suffolk Border REGM is .5 in the same areas as is the SREF . I am very comfortable with 4 to 6 From MC North and East . When you total the models up , there will be very few 2s showing up . So I like 4 to 6 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The GFS does have a nicer 850mb low then the NAM it appears, at 700mb it does manage to develop a closed low offshore south of our latitude, this should aid in a general steady snow for the tristate area but the lift is not there for crazy banding unless NE of NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I like a general 3-5" with locally higher amounts especially further east. It'll be another nice event for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 UKMET shows good snow for most of Long Island and maybe into NYC as the low comes by tomorrow evening. Probably approaching 0.5" H2O or so because we can only see one relevant QPF panel and that one panel has 0.25" in 6 hours across the east half of Long Island. The GFS shows a closed 700mb low south of Montauk and good lift throughout LI and CT and just coming up into NYC. This can still be a nice event for many of us, more east than west though. However, again the start of the good precip might be rain/sleet across Long Island because the GFS gets 850 temps above freezing briefly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Looks interesting for tomorrow. Snowpack could use a nice little 3 inch refresh. Lots of sloppy and ugly cemented snow piles right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The low went SE a little on this run, so it's likely that the last few GFS runs were overdone and it will be more like the NAM/RGEM. Looks like we're coming to a 3-5" type event for Long Island, SW CT, Hudson Valley and maybe NYC, 2-4" for much of NJ. Eastern Suffolk maybe 6".Sounds about right. I would assume we see wwa from upton soon. Still think surprises in store with a low bombing out someone is going to get crushed. And someone is going to be disappointed. These bombing lows tend to have serious banding. I really think this is a mtk special.The radiational cooling here currently is phenomenal so that should help at the beginning. I was getting worried. I think the cape gets an all out blizzard after rain to start. This is kinds like 2005 just later which sucks for us! That was one of the best storms I have seen as I was in Boston for that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 UKMET shows good snow for most of Long Island and maybe into NYC as the low comes by tomorrow evening. Probably approaching 0.5" H2O or so because we can only see one relevant QPF panel and that one panel has 0.25" in 6 hours across the east half of Long Island. The GFS shows a closed 700mb low south of Montauk and good lift throughout LI and CT and just coming up into NYC. This can still be a nice event for many of us, more east than west though. The consensus has strongly built tonight for a general 2-4" event with more as you head NE of NYC. No models are serious outliers at this point that we need to be overly concerned with major shifts in the track. Of course as shown on the SREF, there is the potential for this to reach back into NYC proper, and that will need to be monitored, but other than that I see no major surprises here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanman 06 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Closed off hr 15 inside obx omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Kind of hoping for a last minute trend west like with the last system as it's not unreasonable. We're getting screwed a bit with the last system going too far west and this system going too Far East but we got stuff from both so it's ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 UKMET shows good snow for most of Long Island and maybe into NYC as the low comes by tomorrow evening. Probably approaching 0.5" H2O or so because we can only see one relevant QPF panel and that one panel has 0.25" in 6 hours across the east half of Long Island. The GFS shows a closed 700mb low south of Montauk and good lift throughout LI and CT and just coming up into NYC. This can still be a nice event for many of us, more east than west though. However, again the start of the good precip might be rain/sleet across Long Island because the GFS gets 850 temps above freezing briefly. It's east of the GFS. It's about .25" for NYC and a little more for LI. This site has precip maps for in between until meteocentre updates later. http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=1&carte=1594&ech=6&archive=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Sounds about right. I would assume we see wwa from upton soon. Still think surprises in store with a low bombing out someone is going to get crushed. And someone is going to be disappointed. These bombing lows tend to have serious banding. I really think this is a mtk special. The radiational cooling here currently is phenomenal so that should help at the beginning. I was getting worried. I think the cape gets an all out blizzard after rain to start. This is kinds like 2005 just later which sucks for us! That was one of the best storms I have seen as I was in Boston for that! We were due for a late developer for New England in a progressive year like this. At least we get the initial batch of snow and the idea that it would vanish is gone. For the Jan 2005 storm I was in State College PA where we had about 2-3 hours of snow and then a dryslot from hell, huge bust as we had less than half the snow originally predicted. I saw what SNE and LI were experiencing and cursed the computer screen, haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 RGEM has 11mm of snow in NYC, so about 0.4" liquid equivalent. 0.3-0.4" is about the average liquid equivalent models are showing, so generously this would be maybe 3-5", probably 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Sounds about right. I would assume we see wwa from upton soon. Still think surprises in store with a low bombing out someone is going to get crushed. And someone is going to be disappointed. These bombing lows tend to have serious banding. I really think this is a mtk special. The radiational cooling here currently is phenomenal so that should help at the beginning. I was getting worried. I think the cape gets an all out blizzard after rain to start. This is kinds like 2005 just later which sucks for us! That was one of the best storms I have seen as I was in Boston for that! Agree on the radiational cooling. Just noticed I dropped 2 degrees in 20 mins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 We were due for a late developer for New England in a progressive year like this. At least we get the initial batch of snow and the idea that it would vanish is gone. For the Jan 2005 storm I was in State College PA where we had about 2-3 hours of snow and then a dryslot from hell, huge bust as we had less than half the snow originally predicted. I saw what SNE and LI were experiencing and cursed the computer screen, haha I think he's talking about the Dec 9, 2005 storm that was rain on Long Island but huge snows for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 'cause Jan 2005 was snow here...(map courtesy NorthShoreWX) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I like 3-5" NYC , east to Nassau/Suffolk border; Suffolk 4-8". Should be an advisory, Winter Storm Warning respectively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 We were due for a late developer for New England in a progressive year like this. At least we get the initial batch of snow and the idea that it would vanish is gone. For the Jan 2005 storm I was in State College PA where we had about 2-3 hours of snow and then a dryslot from hell, huge bust as we had less than half the snow originally predicted. I saw what SNE and LI were experiencing and cursed http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/42694-february-3rd-snowstorm/page-3the computer screen, haha The 2005 storm was so epic in Boston but straight up insane on the cape with 30" plus. The winds in that storm were second only to Boxing Day in my experience. Man does eastern ne get crushed! 200 miles of more development really makes a difference! Our snow pack took such a beating as we would expect today. It would be nice to add some. I was in the middle of the island earlier and it looked like they had allot more. I'm down to 10" I suspect you have less. Liking 5" here eastern Nassau maybe 3ish at cpk and 10" somewhere east of river head. They may even approach true blizzard way out there. It's rare to see hurricane force wind warnings outside of Alaska so that has to say something. (Offshore but still) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The 2005 storm was so epic in Boston but straight up insane on the cape with 30" plus. The winds in that storm were second only to Boxing Day in my experience. Man does eastern ne get crushed! 200 miles of more development really makes a difference! Our snow pack took such a beating as we would expect today. It would be nice to add some. I was in the middle of the island earlier and it looked like they had allot more. I'm down to 10" I suspect you have less. Liking 5" here eastern Nassau maybe 3ish at cpk and 10" somewhere east of river head. They may even approach true blizzard way out there. It's rare to see hurricane force wind warnings outside of Alaska so that has to say something. (Offshore but still) <or maybe not> <the "sucks for us" threw me> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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