JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Slightly concerning to me is that each consecutive run of the rap (I know I know, but it is useful for watching trends as we get closer) is that it is now largely caving to the NAM's depiction of mid level features. Does not develop a closed 700mb low thru 18 hours, and it matches perfectly with the NAM at 850mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 sounds similar to last February where LI, CT, and coastal NJ jackpot. not saying about the 30" plus amounts but saying its a tightly wound system with a tight QPF gradient and accum. drop offs The upper lows seem to be trending better which means we should at least get some moderate snow for a while. The CCB on the NAM is insanely compact though, like 75-100 miles across. Probably overdone on that but there's probably a tight gradient somewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 850's fine, but SFC temps struggle at the start a bit on the 21zSREF That's my fear here. Whoever gets in the heavy banding will be fine though. I really think there will be some big surprises as someone gets se insane 3" hour rates. Lets just hope it happens as far west as possible and we don't see a mtk special like in the late 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM still develops a lot of convection offshore and drags everything east. Time will tell if that's correct or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The upper lows seem to be trending better which means we should at least get some moderate snow for a while. The CCB on the NAM is insanely compact though, like 75-100 miles across. Probably overdone on that but there's probably a tight gradient somewhere. The RAP is slowly caving towards the NAM depiction with each run. No closed 700mb anymore and abroad diffuse 850mb low over the area by 18. I know its the rap at the end of its run but I am slightly concerned. It seems with the 500mb, that everything is going to be quite broad until it reaches SNE. Im sticking with my call of a general 2-4 across NJ into NENJ (NWNJ could get slightly more as the initial band becomes enhanced), then NE of NYC gets into the 3-6+ range. The cutoff for the heavier stuff literally appears to be NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The NAM HI-RES looks...... nice to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The NAM HI-RES looks...... nice to say the least Jetspens87 "RAP is leaning towards the NAM not as organized"-"the NAM HI-RES looks.....nice to say the least". Well looks like some good ol' model tug of war tonight. Only 24 hours before we did the same thing lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Hopefully the GFS sticks to its guns tonight, if not, we likely know which way this is headed. Still should be a nice potentially moderate event for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Jetspens87 "RAP is leaning towards the NAM not as organized"-"the NAM HI-RES looks.....nice to say the least". Well looks like some good ol' model tug of war tonight. Only 24 hours before we did the same thing lol LOL seriously, The rap has been trending towards the NAM depiction of the mid level features. The thing is on the HIRES....well ive got nothing actually hah. Ill go with "It's the NAM" to cover my bases hah. Actually, the totals map looks pretty similar to OP http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_0z/ptot31.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The NAM HI-RES looks...... nice to say the leastmIt seems to always look nice. Looking like a decent event tomorrow. Best Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Its entirely possible the RAP may be similar to the NAM on the upper air features but the NAM sure looked like it went alot closer to the RGEM/GFS on its precip depiction at 00Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The NAM might initially have precip falling as rain for Long Island this run. 850s briefly spike to 0c or above as precip moves in. Regardless, this looks like a very pasty snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Tonight's RGEM has a deformation band over NYC. Gives us a decent hit. This storm keeps getting more interesting by the moment. I am thinking of upping the amounts, let's see what the GFS and GEM have to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 FWIW, Nick Gregory just upped his totals to 3-5" area wide, for all of NJ, north of a line from about Trenton over to Belmar (1-3" south of that line) and including NYC, Hudson Valley, and most of CT/LI, except the eastern parts of CT/LI, where he has 5-8". Me likey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Its entirely possible the RAP may be similar to the NAM on the upper air features but the NAM sure looked like it went alot closer to the RGEM/GFS on its precip depiction at 00Z. Sure did, and even the upper air features the NAM has are not terrible by any stretch, just not conducive for anyone hoping for more than the 2-4" variety unless NE of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2014 Author Share Posted February 15, 2014 Tonight's RGEM has a deformation band over NYC. Gives us a decent hit. This storm keeps getting more interesting by the moment. I am thinking of upping the amounts, let's see what the GFS and GEM have to say. Its evolution from 15-18Z is just crazy, it destroys the inland area of snow and next thing you know there it is over NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Tonight's RGEM has a deformation band over NYC. Gives us a decent hit. This storm keeps getting more interesting by the moment. I am thinking of upping the amounts, let's see what the GFS and GEM have to say. I hear ya, Im sticking 2-4" for NJ and 3-6+ as you get NE of NYC, I think NYC itself is the major cutoff. I just cant up my amounts based on a deformation band right now, too mesoscale right now for my liking , almost got burnt last night so ill stick with the general 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrooklynSnow97 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Since The ARW Member run off of the GFS, One could assume that the GFS will show something more amplified and similar to its 18z run. On The 18z, it closed off to the south at 700mb(then opened up on the next frame) Which ultimately enhanced lift and threw back some good precip into the NYC metro area. Anyways, whether we get a small, moderate, or big hit; this could have been much more. If we had something to slow this down or if this baby went negative a little faster than this would have crushed us. Looks like a 6 hours too late type event. The low pressure system undergoes EXTREME bombgenesis right as it's passing to the southeast of Long Island and into the Cape eventually landing into the Gulf Of Maine as a potentially Sub 970 System. This will be a beauty on satellite. I'm just hoping the NyC doesn't get shafted with the re developing coastal low as the primary is dying out. The GFS had good Frontigenesis extending across Long Island and into NYC while The NAM does not and only had Frontolysis with barely any lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 GFS 9 hours light precip working towards NWNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wow gfs is going to show a big hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 @12 hours 1000mb over central NC, light precip has been stretching into WNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's closing off omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Can we please just let it play out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Closed off hr 15 inside obx omg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 @15 moving off OBX,closed 850, precip building in CPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Can we please just let it play out? Nothing I'm saying is untrue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Closed off hr 15 inside obx omg It has been shown, and then opening back up, lets please just let it play out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Closed off hr 15 inside obx omg You do a great job, don't let anyone else say otherwise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I just hate people saying its gonna be a big hit when its out t9 hours... Let the model do its thing and then well analyze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 992 east if cape may. Steady snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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