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2/15 Snow threat


SnowGoose69

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Upper levels don't look that cold-850s are above -10, more like -5 or so, so ratios may be on the lower side. But I can see this trending stronger also with the H500 low going negative. This could be a nice surprise, and only 48 hours away.

 

The Midwest shortwave possibly acting as kicker, looks like the main issue. Otherwise the overall pattern looks favorable for amplification again. We have a ridge over the Rockies and today's storm as a 50/50 low.

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The Midwest shortwave possibly acting as kicker, looks like the main issue. Otherwise the overall pattern looks favorable for amplification again. We have a ridge over the Rockies and today's storm as a 50/50 low.

Models seem to be keeping that further away from our developing system. The more I look at it, the more I'm liking it. Negatively tilted S/W's passing close enough SE of here almost never disappoint, ever.

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Yeah this could be our last event, maybe even last snow event until next winter so I hope things continue to trend more favorably to finish this winter off.

Um yeah It can still snow for another 5 weeks...Im sure we will get something in March as the Motto for this year it it can find a way to snow it will around these parts. 

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The trof is crazy sharp I think this may end up more significant than currently shown, this could end up being the final event of the winter as the indices, MJO, etc do not look great as we go into march.

 

The MJO forecasts have it going to phases 7/8 end of this month. I think we could see more snow events, end of Feb or MarchECMF_phase_MANOM_51m_full.gif

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A little more digging it would be a pretty notable storm for NYC/coastal sections. Good thing is the models have been coming further west with this so we may get hit with this storm and make up for what we missed if tonights deform band putters out

I dont think ur shut out tonite , the best is west ,   but didnt you get 12 already  today ?

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