JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Well so much for balance lol... at least on IWM, but at 22 NWNJ continues to get hit good, broad 850 low closed from WNJ to E end of LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NW NJ FTW! Payback Monmouth County! Kidding all... Just having fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 @24 the LP is REALLY starting to bomb, but its pretty darn far east, yet in accordance with the 850 feature, NW NJ continues to get hit, and the band (as I was alluding to before) is stretching into SNY and going to move towards SNE. A jump over NYC with the heaviest, then ELI gets hit pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm guessing the NAM still looks diffuse and disorganized for us and won't get itself together until New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 @24 the LP is REALLY starting to bomb, but its pretty darn far east, yet in accordance with the 850 feature, NW NJ continues to get hit, and the band (as I was alluding to before) is stretching into SNY and going to move towards SNE. A jump over NYC with the heaviest, then ELI gets hit pretty good Figured it still had the ridiculous dry slot. So we have the ARW with 2" liquid equivalent for parts of NYC and the NAM with flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'm guessing the NAM still looks diffuse and disorganized for us and won't get itself together until New England. We get a good amount more prcip this run becasue the band doesn't fall apart as much but its still playing catch up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This thing absolutely TANKS 100-150 miles SE of the twin forks. Cape cod has SFC issues but BOX area would get annihilated if temps coop. Heaviest band moves JUST to the NW of NYC into SNY and over towards CT now (heaviest from the enhanced initial band, of course the heaviest heaviest is BOX area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Figured it still had the ridiculous dry slot. So we have the ARW with 2" liquid equivalent for parts of NYC and the NAM with flurries. it's more than flurries... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 27-28 is awe inspiring for Cape Cod and BOX area. Precip to the NE of NYC now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 with Boston getting like zero and NYC only getting 9.5....good luck. This isnt a top 15 storm. Is there one storm is the top 15 that boston received less then 5" that didnt have a huge area of 20+ and 30+ snow totals? NYC got 12.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 How come nobody ever mentions the jersey shore? It's always nnj nwj cnj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I neglected to include last nights totals...correct Yeah. What's 3"+ amongst friends. LGA was 10.9" as well and EWR was 12.4". 100% a good HECS score. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 In conclusion.... -Absolute NUKE for BOX/Cape Cod area and a good portion of SNE -Light-moderate event for NYC and NENJ -Nice solid hit for WNJ and NWNJ into EPA The heaviest precip did exactly what I was talking about earlier this afternoon according to the mid level features Problem with the NAM is clearly a broad 850mb low overtop of an initially VERY broad and disorganized coastal that absolutely TANKS about 5-6 hours too late for most in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 How come nobody ever mentions the jersey shore? It's always nnj nwj cnj This looks like a light-moderate event for the JS Sorry, I can only get so much in the PBP, it rolls out hour by hour very quickly on IWM and I did the best I could to try and paint the picture of what was going on. I was mainly focusing on where it looked like the heaviest event would take place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 How come nobody ever mentions the jersey shore? It's always nnj nwj cnj probably because its mostly a miss from mercer/monmouth counties on south. it gets together too late for your area. at least on the nam that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Figured it still had the ridiculous dry slot. So we have the ARW with 2" liquid equivalent for parts of NYC and the NAM with flurries. NAM is .27" for NYC now. .28" for ISP and .50"+ for Eastern LI. Huge jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYC10023 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Any predictions for Central Park tomorrow? I'm going with 5'' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=030ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_030_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Finally saw on NCEP-better than I thought actually. Finally got rid of the idea that this is just flurries/light snow and has 0.25"+ for all north and east of central NJ pretty much. Nice improvement overall but would really like to see other guidance continue the west trend to contemplate a bigger event. The upper air features look a little diffuse and suppressed still, preventing a more tucked in low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 18z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=036ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_036_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M 00z: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=030ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_030_precip_ptot.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_ptot&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Finally saw on NCEP-better than I thought actually. Finally got rid of the idea that this is just flurries/light snow and has 0.25"+ for all north and east of central NJ pretty much. Nice improvement overall but would really like to see other guidance continue the west trend to contemplate a bigger event. The upper air features look a little diffuse and suppressed still, preventing a more tucked in low. Yea its mid level features are not NEARLY as nice as some of the short range guidance right now. The low develops broadly close to the coast but consolidates much further east/NE. Still not a terrible event and slightly better then 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 BTW JM where did you get an 21z ARW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 the Hi-res models being amped for the most part is pretty comforting to say the least. 0z GFS should bring some weenies out to play if all goes to plan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 BTW JM where did you get an 21z ARW? Psu ewall regional views. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Psu ewall regional views. Much thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 BTW JM where did you get an 21z ARW? http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Also, among the SREF members, a whole bunch of ARW members clock Long Island, NYC, CT and coastal NJ along with 1 or 2 NMM members. Some are total misses, some moderate hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Also, among the SREF members, a whole bunch of ARW members clock Long Island, NYC, CT and coastal NJ along with 1 or 2 NMM members. Some are total misses, some moderate hits. sounds similar to last February where LI, CT, and coastal NJ jackpot. not saying about the 30" plus amounts but saying its a tightly wound system with a tight QPF gradient and accum. drop offs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beez Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/RSMEAST_0z/rsmloop.html Also, among the SREF members, a whole bunch of ARW members clock Long Island, NYC, CT and coastal NJ along with 1 or 2 NMM members. Some are total misses, some moderate hits. yea,,,id be feeling pretty good if I lived on long island right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
liwxfan Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Central Suffolk resident here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 yea,,,id be feeling pretty good if I lived on long island right now Well after the flooding rains we received a few days ago a better than 4" storm would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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