jbenedet Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 This is what happened yesterday when the 850/700 mb low were essentially "stacked" and the raging dry slot pushed into NJ forcing everything back to the NW. Agree with your sentiment that more qpf should be modeled further n and w. It's important to note the track of the low is quite different than what we saw yesterday. While I agree a "dry slot" may develop as you suggest, it's likely the initial "screwed" eastern zones would see the band eventually swing through as the system travels northeastward and not nearly due north, as with yesterday's system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 John looking at 500mb guidance and 250/300 jet, they all should be aiming this low much more on a NNE track then is currently being shown. SREF's starting to pick up on this? Possible yeah..I was thinking that the kicker over the Lakes was going to have a much greater impact on this system but the models have really trended more favorably with its positioning. To the point where it now almost is moving west to east behind the amplifying trough -- and has minimal impacts on the western side of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 question on the NESIS rankings: How is December 2003 not on that list??? Sorry for extending the OT, but figured I'd chime in as I had some involvement with the RSI project. Check out the RSI map viewer here: http://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/snowfall.map?view=rsi You'll see that the Dec 4-8, 2003, storm in the Northeast ranks as a category 3. You can also plot up the snowfall map, though I found that it took a while for the map to show up in my browser. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Possible yeah..I was thinking that the kicker over the Lakes was going to have a much greater impact on this system but the models have really trended more favorably with its positioning. To the point where it now almost is moving west to east behind the amplifying trough -- and has minimal impacts on the western side of the system. The placement of that kicker is interesting now, instead of causing the trough to push along to the east and stay neutral/slightly neg, the kicker is almost driving energy into the western side, could cause a faster flow to inject more energy rounding the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldalex Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 How are the temps looking earthlight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Looks like LI an central north jersey shore might get some decent snow from them models? We totally missed out yesterday!! Hope to get a "plowable" snow out of this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's important to note the track of the low is quite different than what we saw yesterday. While I agree a "dry slot" may develop as you suggest, it's likely the initial "screwed" eastern zones would see the band eventually swing through as the system travels northeastward and not nearly due north, as with yesterday's system. The track is different, and the motion being more NE/NNE away from the coast towards the BM may help avoid a persistent dry slot though I think looking at the mid levels that there is going to be a transient one somewhere as you mention, this is almost inevitable to me with the current mid level predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 You know looking at h5 and surface there was no reason for this not to produce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 How are the temps looking earthlight? 850's fine, but SFC temps struggle at the start a bit on the 21zSREF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Tek1972 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 And tomorrow is a very big travel day as it is the start of winter break Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 850's fine, but SFC temps struggle at the start a bit on the 21zSREF I'd bet surface temps crash pretty quickly as soon as intensity increases. The most important levels look good for us to avoid something we saw last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 That Feb 2010 map doesn't do justice to the depth of the snow in the Catskills and north to the Heldebergs of Eastern NY. There was a very sharp northern/eastern cut-off and the red 30+ area should extend almost as far north as the north edge of blue area. The areas of 30+ they show in the Catskills were actually 48+ in most areas and 60+ in some. not really based on this pic and quite similar to this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wowzers on the SREF. I'm assuming more members joined the crush Long Island bandwagon. There were some really nice members last run, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wowzers on the SREF. I'm assuming more members joined the crush Long Island bandwagon. There were some really nice members last run, too. You can see on the MSLP spread that there are a few members tucked in really close to Long Island or just south of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Sorry for extending the OT, but figured I'd chime in as I had some involvement with the RSI project. Check out the RSI map viewer here: http://gis.ncdc.noaa.gov/maps/snowfall.map?view=rsi You'll see that the Dec 4-8, 2003, storm in the Northeast ranks as a category 3. You can also plot up the snowfall map, though I found that it took a while for the map to show up in my browser. Thanks for this info. I greatly appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 I'd bet surface temps crash pretty quickly as soon as intensity increases. The most important levels look good for us to avoid something we saw last night. Exactly, if you look back a page or two I was discussing the depth of the EWL. It is not very deep and its nested from 925-2m, this can be overcome by rates and dynamic/evaporative cooling MUCH easier then an EWL from 850-700 mb (850-800 was the EWL last night we struggled with) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 And tomorrow is a very big travel day as it is the start of winter break Nobody is getting a winter break they are making up snow days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wowzers on the SREF. I'm assuming more members joined the crush Long Island bandwagon. There were some really nice members last run, too.The spread is def closer to the coast. Let's see how the 0z guidance comes in. The NWS really should issue a winter storm watch for more areas and go with advisories if need be. There's no harm in that.*maybe just for LI. Regardless, advisories should be up right now for more areas. And I'm def not bashing Upton. I think they did a great job with the last storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Nobody is getting a winter break they are making up snow days. This should go in the schools thread, but thats not true around here. Some schools have lost some spring break days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 NAM out to hour 9 if anyone cares...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 LI jersey shore might get this one? What's opinions? Could it tick even further west with those heavy snow bands? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 At 13 a broad 1004 low extending from the SE to off of OBX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 LI jersey shore might get this one? What's opinions? Could it tick even further west with those heavy snow bands? Monmouth should prob end up with 11". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 14 it begins to consolidate about 50-75 miles NE of OBX, the precip from CPA is shooting to the NW of us but NWNJ is getting light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 LI jersey shore might get this one? What's opinions? Could it tick even further west with those heavy snow bands? buddy just listen with the play-by-play and you'll learn. IMBY questions are looked down upon in the discussion thread. a little friendly advice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Having a hard time finding where it wants to center the lowest pressure At 850mb at 16, its very broad, much unlike what some shorter range guidance is showing around the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Having a hard time finding where it wants to center the lowest pressure At 850mb at 16, its very broad, much unlike what some shorter range guidance is showing around the same time. it is the NAM soooo....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 @ 18 it tries closing the 850 NW NJ into sn- sn, snow showers further east, about 4-5 different LP centers, one off OBX and one about 150 miles NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 21z ARW absolutely annihilates Long Island and NYC with 2" liquid precip. Not that it really matters but interesting to see. These are likely what the amped SREFs consist of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 By 20 it may have found its balance lol Heavy snow looks from TTN N into warren/Sussex, moderate snow all of NJ N of 195, LP 150-200 miles E of ACY it looks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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