Bobby Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I just needed the proof to back up that statement. And THAT would have been the way to ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 I just needed the proof to back up that statement. I just posted a discussion regarding why I think this statement is correct/incorrect. While I can see it starting as some drizzle/snizzle I think as soon as it picks up the signal is there that there is no EWL significant enough to keep it rain. We all need to get along and foster a constructive discussion. If someone posts something that doesn't seem reasonable, then let the discussion flow and eventually qualified posters will aid in the discussion whether it be proving or disproving any given statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Using 850mb Features If the 850mb low is: ______(A) miles ______( of the 2840m 1000-700mb thickness contour (approximately 0 deg C at 850), then heavy snow will fall ______© and the band will be ______(D) miles wide. ABCD50N or S90 miles N of 0 deg C at 850150150Nalong the track of the low15050-150N100-200 miles N of 0 deg C at 85015050-150N50-75 miles N of 0 deg C at 8500-75 Looking at the 0c 850 line, id estimate the 850mb low is about 50 miles S(technically e but we can use N/S to mean cold/warm side) of the line, therefore heaviest snow should fall in a 150 mile wide "band" (were not talking meso bands here) from about where I said TTN N into NW NJ then wrapping (note the contour of the 850 line and follow it along) into SNY and SNE. I am NOT saying this is what will happen however this method is VERY useful going forward in determining where exactly the precip should be according to the mid level features. QPF is one of the toughest things for models to handle believe it or not, and using your own judgment according to mid/upper level features will yield you to the promised lands. BTW apologies for how that table pasted here, if you click the link you can view this table to get an idea on how this method is performed. Again this is VERY useful information and this is how meteorology not modelology is performed. http://speedy.meteor.wisc.edu/~swetzel/winter/steps.html#lows Based on the position of the 700 mb and 850 mb low on the 18z gfs; I think more qpf should be N and W then modeled. Also, it looks like the 700 mb and 850 mb low are very close to the twin forks of LI allowing for a surge in 850 mb temps and a little bit of a dry slot, so I am not completely sold on high accumulations for the eastern end(some mixing). 2-4 inches for all of Long Island with some 5 inchers seems right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 Thanks my mistake. Eyes still crossed from last storm. It's completely fine. Eventually the discussion will shine through. You did not make a terrible mistake, posting and reading these forums is all about a learning process. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted February 14, 2014 Share Posted February 14, 2014 kids shouldnt be allowed to post...plain and simple That is absolutely no way to speak to anybody on this board. Grow up kid. You are right about that... I stayed away from other forum because it got to be kindergarten hope that doesn't happen here. Thanks guys and Sry for the rant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Based on the position of the 700 mb and 850 mb low on the 18z gfs; I think more qpf should be N and W then modeled. Also, it looks like the 700 mb and 850 mb low are very close to the twin forks of LI allowing for a surge in 850 mb temps and a little bit of a dry slot, so I am not completely sold on high accumulations for the eastern end(some mixing). 2-4 inches for all of Long Island with some 5 inchers seems right. This is what happened yesterday when the 850/700 mb low were essentially "stacked" and the raging dry slot pushed into NJ forcing everything back to the NW. Agree with your sentiment that more qpf should be modeled further n and w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It's completely fine. Eventually the discussion will shine through. You did not make a terrible mistake, posting and reading these forums is all about a learning process. Second this, was a little overzealous last night with QPF interpretation offshore. Im now posting within my limits and learning like i have been, as an advid weather fan and love it with a passion and just let my emotions get the best of me sometimes. I get excited over tracking a winter storm so much that ill wake up middle of the night to check the 0z suite, its the passiom that helps you and hurts you sometimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Second this, was a little overzealous last night with QPF interpretation offshore. Im now posting within my limits and learning like i have been, as an advid weather fan and love it with a passion and just let my emotions get the best of me sometimes. I get excited over tracking a winter storm so much that ill wake up middle of the night to check the 0z suite, its the passiom that helps you and hurts you sometimes. Trust me my friend, I made the jump from "weenie" to red tagger, because of my inner weenie. And don't think that for one second that under this professionalism there isn't one of the biggest weenies on this board. It's why I do what I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Trust me my friend, I made the jump from "weenie" to red tagger, because of my inner weenie. And don't think that for one second that under this professionalism there isn't one of the biggest weenies on this board. It's why I do what I do. Hey, I just want to add, please keep it up.....you offer some very insightful posts, along with all of the other mets as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 think its going to rank from #6-#10 on NESIS from my rough guesstimate jetspens87 with Boston getting like zero and NYC only getting 9.5....good luck. This isnt a top 15 storm. Is there one storm is the top 15 that boston received less then 5" that didnt have a huge area of 20+ and 30+ snow totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Hey, I just want to add, please keep it up.....you offer some very insightful posts, along with all of the other mets as well. Thank you. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 with Boston getting like zero and NYC only getting 9.5....good luck. This isnt a top 15 storm. Is there one storm is the top 15 that boston received less then 5" that didnt have a huge area of 20+ and 30+ snow totals? http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/20100223-20100228-5.46.jpg #15 on the list. I think this storm was much more wide reaching, the southern impacts may help push it past #15, Feb23 2010 BOS on par with yesterday. NYC above in 2010. Question is do the southern impacts outweigh some of those insane totals in SNY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 with Boston getting like zero and NYC only getting 9.5....good luck. This isnt a top 15 storm. Is there one storm is the top 15 that boston received less then 5" that didnt have a huge area of 20+ and 30+ snow totals? New York City's final figure was 12.5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 http://www1.ncdc.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/images/snow/nesis/20100223-20100228-5.46.jpg #15 on the list. I think this storm was much more wide reaching, the southern impacts may help push it past #15, Feb23 2010 BOS on par with yesterday. NYC above in 2010. Question is do the southern impacts outweigh some of those insane totals in SNY. thats a good debate. NYC also recorded 20" in that storm. Big weight area...plus all of those insane 30+ totals in NYS....close call...but I doubt its above that one. The one storm I ask why about is the Jan 64 storm...Why is that storm top 10? It's NEsis, Northeast. Who cares about the midwest and the south....which is why this one shouldt have as much weight....the impact was greater away from the "true" NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 New York City's final figure was 12.5". I neglected to include last nights totals...correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 question on the NESIS rankings: How is December 2003 not on that list??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 thats a good debate. NYC also recorded 20" in that storm. Big weight area...plus all of those insane 30+ totals in NYS....close call...but I doubt its above that one. The one storm I ask why about is the Jan 64 storm...Why is that storm top 10? It's NEsis, Northeast. Who cares about the midwest and the south....which is why this one shouldt have as much weight....the impact was greater away from the "true" NE True, I keep getting confused with the new RSI, so with that said maybe the southern impact doesn't have impact on the rating. Maybe someone more familiar with NESIS/RSI could chime in. Though we should probably take it to another thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It will rate very highly. NYC, Philly, Baltimore and DC all reported large amounts of snow as did their heavily populated suburbs. The western Boston suburbs also did quite well, 8-12" in most places. 2/25/10 really only hammered the NYC area up through eastern NY. It was a very narrow heavy snow band and was generally a localized storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wow I'm trying to find out the latest update on this storm as I can't check models ATM, and this thread is not about what the title of it is lol. Maybe make a separate topic for this? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wow I'm trying to find out the latest update on this storm as I can't check models ATM, and this thread is not about what the title of it is lol. Maybe make a separate topic for this? Sent from my iPhone Sorry, there's really nothing new to discuss with it right now, as someone said we are in "model halftime". Look back on the last page or two for some good discussion regarding it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 question on the NESIS rankings: How is December 2003 not on that list??? I've wondered, as well. Boston and New York City and much of the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas picked up a foot or more of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlogix Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 It will rate very highly. NYC, Philly, Baltimore and DC all reported large amounts of snow as did their heavily populated suburbs. The western Boston suburbs also did quite well, 8-12" in most places. 2/25/10 really only hammered the NYC area up through eastern NY. It was a very narrow heavy snow band and was generally a localized storm. not really based on this pic and quite similar to this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The mid level centers are so important in this situation. If the 700/850mb centers close off while moving off the coast of NJ still south of Long Island, banding will develop as frontogenesis and lift increases northwest of them. If they develop farther east, maybe near Montauk, the banding will be relegated to Southern New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Wow, the 21z SREF are way west. .5" west of NYC. 1" to Eastern Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 And still a lot of spread with QPF and to the NW of the mean surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 The mid level centers are so important in this situation. If the 700/850mb centers close off while moving off the coast of NJ still south of Long Island, banding will develop as frontogenesis and lift increases northwest of them. If they develop farther east, maybe near Montauk, the banding will be relegated to Southern New England This can't be stressed enough. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=014ℑ=data%2Frap%2F23%2Frap_namer_014_700_rh_ht.gif&model=rap&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M And the 850mb on guidance looks like it will not only be closed but maturing by the time it reaches our latitude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Holy crap. WOW! earthlight comes bearing goodies maybe my part of LI has a shot this time john. SREF's maybe continue the trend to 0z then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted February 15, 2014 Share Posted February 15, 2014 And still a lot of spread with QPF and to the NW of the mean surface low. John looking at 500mb guidance and 250/300 jet, they all should be aiming this low much more on a NNE track then is currently being shown. SREF's starting to pick up on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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